What will you do when Rudd decides to turn the FIRB tap off?

Which REA in Melbourne, Ruddprime. Any source to back up such a claim??


FWIW.....

Who's driving up our house prices?
MARIKA DOBBIN AND RICHARD WILLINGHAM
April 24, 2010

"A survey conducted by The Age of 20 leading agents found foreign buyers, mostly cashed-up Chinese, now account for 30 to 40 per cent of property sales. Before the changes in March last year, overseas buyers comprised 15-25 per cent."
 
Now if I were an agent being interviewed for that survey, and I new that no-one would ever know the true figures on foreign investment (because they're not being kept), what level would I estimate foreign investment at?
 
from : National Housing Supply council, State of Supply Report (2008)
http://www.fahcsia.gov.au/sa/housin...supply/Documents/NHSC_StateofSupplyReport.pdf


"This comparison showed a cumulative gap by 2028 of 431,000 dwellings.
Annually, the shortfall is projected to be 23,000 dwellings in 2010"

"Based on the trend in growth of aggregate housing supply since 1980, adjusted
for losses due to demolition, the net annual growth of housing stock is projected
to be 130,000 in 2010, increasing to 142,000 per year in 2028. These projections
would see total growth of 2,716,000 dwellings in the period 2008 to 2028"

"McDonald and Temple’s medium growth projections suggest that some
3,060,000 additional dwellings will be required in Australia by 2028"

About eleven buyers for every ten new homes, per year.
 
What is the government going to say when this makes no difference to housing prices. If you look at house prices @ 1980 levels the adverage price in Sydney was $64,000 ! It then doubles every 10 years.

Real Estate in China is also growing at a rapid rate so it only makes sense that they have the money to buy property in AUS. India will be next. I have a few clients trying to buy in Vietnam too. This country should realize that we only get ahead by immigration and foreign investment. If we stop overseas money who is going to develop housing? Is the government going to release affordable land? no. Is the government going to build more public housing no... only in mining areas.
 
from : National Housing Supply council, State of Supply Report (2008)
http://www.fahcsia.gov.au/sa/housin...supply/Documents/NHSC_StateofSupplyReport.pdf


"This comparison showed a cumulative gap by 2028 of 431,000 dwellings.
Annually, the shortfall is projected to be 23,000 dwellings in 2010"

"Based on the trend in growth of aggregate housing supply since 1980, adjusted
for losses due to demolition, the net annual growth of housing stock is projected
to be 130,000 in 2010, increasing to 142,000 per year in 2028. These projections
would see total growth of 2,716,000 dwellings in the period 2008 to 2028"

"McDonald and Temple’s medium growth projections suggest that some
3,060,000 additional dwellings will be required in Australia by 2028"

About eleven buyers for every ten new homes, per year.

i can make a projection to .. but that's not real numbers .
supply in 2008 8.86 million so could support over 22 mill then . . was over 300 000 spare houses then and the number built 2008/2009 was aprox 300 000 so still no shortage infact an over supply . the concerning thing is the way prices gone up compared to income has bubble all over it
 
i can make a projection to .. but that's not real numbers .

Actually it's not a prediction its a forecast, and it is real numbers, it's a straight line projection of the current trends. Knowing the current figures alone is not particularly useful in situations where decissions need to be made decades in advance.

no shortage infact an over supply

What you're talking about is infact represented by vacant housing as mentioned below. Which the council sees as non-available. It's worth noting that in 2008 they forecast the current price trend and housing supply shortage.

"The Council estimates that a minimum of around 85,000 dwellings is the gap (unmet
need) in the supply of housing in 2008. This is based on the incidence of homelessness
and the low level of vacancy rates in the private rental market.

The Council acknowledges the crudeness of this estimate and also points out that
there were some 830,000 vacant dwellings in Australia at the time of the 2006 Census.
The Council has assumed that most of these were probably second homes, homes
in the process of sale or homes awaiting redevelopment and that there is likely to be
limited capacity for absorbing growth in underlying demand within the present level
of housing supply. The Council will also be undertaking research to assist it to better
understand the reasons why these dwellings were vacant."
 
this expedential ?spell growth rate should change when the populations expedential birth rate changes too! so dont worry, :rolleyes:

is it the chinese that have an allowable birth of only one child, ?
 
Actually it's not a prediction its a forecast, and it is real numbers, it's a straight line projection of the current trends. Knowing the current figures alone is not particularly useful in situations where decissions need to be made decades in advance.



What you're talking about is infact represented by vacant housing as mentioned below. Which the council sees as non-available. It's worth noting that in 2008 they forecast the current price trend and housing supply shortage.

"The Council estimates that a minimum of around 85,000 dwellings is the gap (unmet
need) in the supply of housing in 2008. This is based on the incidence of homelessness
and the low level of vacancy rates in the private rental market.

The Council acknowledges the crudeness of this estimate and also points out that
there were some 830,000 vacant dwellings in Australia at the time of the 2006 Census.
The Council has assumed that most of these were probably second homes, homes
in the process of sale or homes awaiting redevelopment and that there is likely to be
limited capacity for absorbing growth in underlying demand within the present level
of housing supply. The Council will also be undertaking research to assist it to better
understand the reasons why these dwellings were vacant."

800 000 empty so is no under supply reguardless if second home ..

also rental vacancies tell me there is no shortage .

is a big difference between someone who is needing a home and someone who can afford one .. so either wages need to go up heaps or house prices will come down .. whats your guess .

almost all of my posts been cherry picked but i notice many statements got no reply .

when a government spends hugely in one area it has to come from another area .

lets look at australian industry .subsidised housing industry , auto , farming, banks etc.

what happens when the gov needs to really tighten ,especially if we get another leg down in the world economy that i'm expecting .

articles about housing by vested interest groups are not fact .

i wonder how many here are actually in a liquid situation .no debt and savings . i remember very high interest rates and that could be coming again ,but this time the leverage is many times larger . very dangerous position to be in.
 
800k empty may be under supply if none of them are available for habitation, that is the view of the peopl who conducted the research. As in the example, some are being developed, some are second homes, some being sold etc.

I'm not saying higher interest rates wont hurt, but we'll never see 18% rates again. As long as its true that the active people in the market are all highly leveraged, then interest rates dont have to go high to slow the market.

When rates go up buyers will dry up. But think about the sellers though, with these prices, and with accelerating population, how many of us will want to sell our houses then have to replace it? Instead we'll be fixing and hanging on. So sellers will likely dry up faster than buyers. leaving prices to remain high.

When rates come back down again there will have been population growth, but few people will have built homes, and new land release is painfully slow.
 
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