What's Your Best Bet For The Market?

Here's my best bet...

Next week there are over 1000 auctions booked in Melbourne alone which is huge for June, and clearance rates are already on the wane. And everyone who was drawn into the inner suburbs by the 'promise' of capital gains has already bought.

But I'm not looking here at whether prices will drop. Instead, due to the general shortage of stock, and population growth I wonder whether we'll see some catching up in the outer suburbs and regionals for a while. Punters will realise that spending squillions to get into the inner sanctum wont get them a quick profit anymore, so they'll settle for 'affordable'.


... what's your best bet?
 
what about people wanting to live in inner suburbs for lifestyle reasons and that dont care about CG?

I would have thought that with such high stock levels it could provide a good buying opportunity that might be short lived when stock levels thin out again (and they are as July, August auction numbers are not high)
 
what about people wanting to live in inner suburbs for lifestyle reasons and that dont care about CG?

I would have thought that with such high stock levels it could provide a good buying opportunity that might be short lived when stock levels thin out again (and they are as July, August auction numbers are not high)

Fair enough, so you see more inner buying again when auction numbers drop? Cool.
 
generally speaking there is usually good demand for inner city property
Yes that's true, however prices of inner city properties tend to hold their value and generally accumulate greater capital gain than your outer areas, hence making entry level prices for the beginner investor a tad outside their reach.

The other contributor which not too many people want accept (of our "most liveable city") is the growing crime rate. Regardless of what anyone says, gangs are expanding their network boundaries, spilling beyond the bright lights of the CBD to your inner regions and this in turn will affect demand/market trends.
 
Balloon deflates as race for a home starts to slow - The Age
MELBOURNE'S property boom appears to be over as buyer demand softens in the face of interest rate rises and soaring house prices....

... The northern and western suburbs have bucked the trend as buyers priced out of inner areas have turned their attention to some of the last affordable property close to the city.

House prices in Broadmeadows were up 3.24 per cent in May, followed closely by rises of 3.06 to 3.23 per cent at Niddrie, Glenroy and Pascoe Vale South.
 
Oh yea, bring on the journalists. Ever wonder why they're only earning 60 or 70k despite seeming to know everything?

How do you tell if it is REALLY cold outside?
A journalist has his hands in his own pockets

Oh wait, thats meant to be a lawyer :D


This thread is racing to the bottom fast.
And you're determined to take it there, right?

The thread asks for your best bet. But I guess if you dont have any ideas you can always flame everyone else.
 
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Hey Toe!

Your best bet seems like a very logical explaination. Will be keen to see the clearance rates next week, i'm guessing it will be around 68%?

Deltaberry - did you even read that report? I can't spot any hint of them 'claiming' anything. Wow. Must remember to tell my brother in law, that despite working in third world countries, 80+ hour weeks, risking his life to report on wars, terror & freedom....all for his 70k.... I wonder if you spend most of your day with your pinky at the edge of your mouth? :D


Go the mighty SRoos! 6 hours and counting!

AV
 
Thanks AV, I hold high hopes for our team by the way, given that last world cup we only got knocked out by the Italians who then took the cup.
 
The thread asks for your best bet. But I guess if you dont have any ideas you can always flame everyone else.

Good pint, my best bet is hmm... let's think... inner city! Think I might go punt a few mil this year. Still extremely affordable for the people who can afford it. In contrast, the outer is not that affordable even for the people who buy into it. And yes, flaming everyone is very fun.
 
Must remember to tell my brother in law, that despite working in third world countries, 80+ hour weeks, risking his life to report on wars, terror & freedom....all for his 70k.... I wonder if you spend most of your day with your pinky at the edge of your mouth? :D

I sure feel the same for that fashion editor I met that other day.
 
Oh yea, bring on the journalists. Ever wonder why they're only earning 60 or 70k despite seeming to know everything? This thread is racing to the bottom fast.

Hey Deltaberry I notice you 'borrowed' this idea from Rob Williams on Another Thread. Except that there you thought journalists made 55k and made predictions. Here you think they make 70k. And in this article they are reporting figures straight from Residex. Objective and original :rolleyes:
 
It's safer to overshoot on the salary front, in case I'm 5-10k under and get corrected for that. 55k is even lower and sustains my point even more?
 
Here's my best bet...

Next week there are over 1000 auctions booked in Melbourne alone which is huge for June, and clearance rates are already on the wane. And everyone who was drawn into the inner suburbs by the 'promise' of capital gains has already bought.

Quite a number are selling shortly thereafter. It's logical to my line of thinking that as sentiment cools somwhat, that not as many are keen to partake in hand raising in the frenzy that has been occuring at auctions up until May this year. The more sedate scene of an after auction negotiation decreases rash over-bidding. ;)

But I'm not looking here at whether prices will drop. Instead, due to the general shortage of stock, and population growth I wonder whether we'll see some catching up in the outer suburbs and regionals for a while. Punters will realise that spending squillions to get into the inner sanctum wont get them a quick profit anymore, so they'll settle for 'affordable'.

The suburbs to which you allude have already caught up as they were "too cheap" for want of a better descriptor and saw more activity due to affordability of the inner/middles rings and the FHB boosts and other handouts especially for new stock. Interest rates were very low historically and with sometimes nominal savings folks who should not be purchasing have done just that..........some may come to regret their decision :cool:


... what's your best bet?


No bets from me........I don't gamble, however my feelings right now is that we are entering a time (for those old enough to remember and who were investors or at least home owners at that time) reminiscent of the early 90's......most areas will just chug along with inflation. Things will ostensibly be flat for the next five or so years.

As interest rates rise (if they do) the outer suburbs and regionals will experience the flattest growth. I am speaking generally and of course there will be markets within markets.

Reasonably well located metro property will be affected to a lesser degree IMHO.
 
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