I thought you bought a place in Noble Park earlier this year?
Where are the degentrifying suburbs?
- Thread starter Peter Parker
- Start date
I thought you bought a place in Noble Park earlier this year?
I inspected it but never put in an offer.
That would have been the place with the non-council approved double garage > granny flat housing 5 students/security guards on mattresses on the floor and, in the house, a mum scared of electric light who paid her rent money in darkness to the sales agent acting as informal PM for the vendor (I kid you not!).
A really nice house with an opportunity for someone, but it wasn't for me.
Gettting back to degentrifying suburbs, I think people flow is critical. Assuming constant household sizes and an absence of higher-density building, outflows must balance inflows. And comparing the type of people moving in to those moving out is essential.
Suburbs like Sunshine and Noble Park are likely to be 'transit lounges', where high outflows from people who have 'succeeded' and can afford better areas are replaced by those just establishing themselves here (but may initially have high unemployment rates).
Hence cheap transit lounge suburbs play an important social function in providing cheap housing but are unlikely to appreciate quickly value until outmigration is stemmed and/or the demographics of those moving in changes.
There is some superficial similarity with the so-called 'white flight' in US cities, but in our cheaper suburbs those moving out are more likely to be first or second generation migrants who have done well enough to buy elsewhere.
Transit lounge suburbs can be identified by high proportions of migrants arriving in the last 5 years, and especially those arriving in the family reunion or refugee categories (it is assumed that those coming under the skilled category will be working and in 'better' areas).
To revive an old thread, some interesting info comes from 'Suburbs in Time' compiled from ABS Data.
Below is a review of each Melbourne suburb.
http://www.dpcd.vic.gov.au/home/pub...census-2011/suburbs-in-time/melbourne-suburbs
While the numbers are up to 2006, those for 2011's should be added any day soon.
Most interesting are the trends in income groups in each quartile. Even (compared to the state average) is 25/25/25/25%. Whereas a poor area will have more in the bottom two and fewer in the top two groups.
The changes for some suburbs have been stark.
The likes of Abbottsford and Yarraville has gone from being more low income to having much higher proportions of high income.
Mt Eliza has maintained its high income bias.
Conversely few would believe that in 1981 St Albans was a solid middle income area. 21% highest income vs 18% lowest income. Whereas now just 12% are highest quartile income and 39% are lowest quartile income. Or a ratio of over 3:1 vs <1:1 before.
A massive degentrification in anyone's book. Look at areas like Doveton, Sunshine North, Dallas etc as well. The backwater of Altona North also has a low income profile and significant population ageing.
Quite high income areas can have high ethnic diversity (especially in newer estates in western Melbourne) but you'll notice that these have high proportions of both 'speaks non-English at home' and 'speaks English well'. The latter is probably because we bias a fair chunk of our migration program towards those with skills and education.
Whereas areas that have degentrified have a low and declining proportion of those who speak English well. Hence English language proficiency seems to have some association with declining or low socio economic areas (eg St Albans).
Another trend, in the opposite direction, is where senior Italians and Greeks age and are replaced by Australian born younger residents (old working class areas that are now trendy). You see this in the 'languages spoken' or 'speaks English well' and income distribution numbers.
Look at areas that were new housing in the '70s/80s/90s. Most were average or higher income back then. You needed to earn good coin to get a mortgage to buy or build a house. Many such areas have had declining income profiles and have degentrified.
Similarly with suburbs whose populations have aged and the seniors are Centrelink pensioners rather than the affluent types of Sorrento or Mt Eliza.
Just like if you buy a new house there's little value-adding possible (unlike some older houses), it may be that new suburbs may degentrify with income profiles moving towards the lower end. Until it is rediscovered many years later and gentrifies.
Below is a review of each Melbourne suburb.
http://www.dpcd.vic.gov.au/home/pub...census-2011/suburbs-in-time/melbourne-suburbs
While the numbers are up to 2006, those for 2011's should be added any day soon.
Most interesting are the trends in income groups in each quartile. Even (compared to the state average) is 25/25/25/25%. Whereas a poor area will have more in the bottom two and fewer in the top two groups.
The changes for some suburbs have been stark.
The likes of Abbottsford and Yarraville has gone from being more low income to having much higher proportions of high income.
Mt Eliza has maintained its high income bias.
Conversely few would believe that in 1981 St Albans was a solid middle income area. 21% highest income vs 18% lowest income. Whereas now just 12% are highest quartile income and 39% are lowest quartile income. Or a ratio of over 3:1 vs <1:1 before.
A massive degentrification in anyone's book. Look at areas like Doveton, Sunshine North, Dallas etc as well. The backwater of Altona North also has a low income profile and significant population ageing.
Quite high income areas can have high ethnic diversity (especially in newer estates in western Melbourne) but you'll notice that these have high proportions of both 'speaks non-English at home' and 'speaks English well'. The latter is probably because we bias a fair chunk of our migration program towards those with skills and education.
Whereas areas that have degentrified have a low and declining proportion of those who speak English well. Hence English language proficiency seems to have some association with declining or low socio economic areas (eg St Albans).
Another trend, in the opposite direction, is where senior Italians and Greeks age and are replaced by Australian born younger residents (old working class areas that are now trendy). You see this in the 'languages spoken' or 'speaks English well' and income distribution numbers.
Look at areas that were new housing in the '70s/80s/90s. Most were average or higher income back then. You needed to earn good coin to get a mortgage to buy or build a house. Many such areas have had declining income profiles and have degentrified.
Similarly with suburbs whose populations have aged and the seniors are Centrelink pensioners rather than the affluent types of Sorrento or Mt Eliza.
Just like if you buy a new house there's little value-adding possible (unlike some older houses), it may be that new suburbs may degentrify with income profiles moving towards the lower end. Until it is rediscovered many years later and gentrifies.
Spider-Man
Have you managed to find this info on a new page? The link has been trashed
It's the most interesting stuff I have read on this forum
It's unbelievable to see how the bayside suburbs went from low socio economic areas in the late 70s to upper areas by the mid 90s
Berwick.
I've lived here for 18 years it was a beautiful historic late 1800's country town, in 1998 trains were 45 minutes to Flinders now they are 1:07! Nowadays it's an overcrowded area losing it's character year by year.
The area has been destroyed demographic-wise with land south of the rail line being released in endless paddock estates. This is where Noble Park, Dandenong and Hampton Park have relocated to over the years. Just go to Eden Rise Coles for yourself and note all the riff raff and required hired security officers, the population has basically doubled yet the infastructure has not. Unfortunately the South makes it's way down to the station and the village , it was a beautiful area which now more or less resembles Cranbourne estates.
Back then everyone wanted to move to Berwick and it looks like everyone did
I've lived here for 18 years it was a beautiful historic late 1800's country town, in 1998 trains were 45 minutes to Flinders now they are 1:07! Nowadays it's an overcrowded area losing it's character year by year.
The area has been destroyed demographic-wise with land south of the rail line being released in endless paddock estates. This is where Noble Park, Dandenong and Hampton Park have relocated to over the years. Just go to Eden Rise Coles for yourself and note all the riff raff and required hired security officers, the population has basically doubled yet the infastructure has not. Unfortunately the South makes it's way down to the station and the village , it was a beautiful area which now more or less resembles Cranbourne estates.
Back then everyone wanted to move to Berwick and it looks like everyone did
It was always going to happen
Frankston, dandenong, werribee? - towns that were taken over by the melbourne land spread
Once your surrounded by new estates your only going one way
Yes, Great info at the link provided by Spider-man. The link I found was https://www.data.vic.gov.au/data/dataset/suburbs-in-time
Even some searching through the info at http://data.gov.au/dataset reveals heaps of great info.
This is interesting as I am watching this happening right now with my suburb in Niddrie and it definitely makes for interesting observation.
The area is predominantly older generation with a lot of older Europeans (my wife and I get somewhat frustrated on the local roads!).
However the old 1950s homes are going down in droves making way for stylish new homes or multi dwellings. A lot more people my age are now being seen with prams as younger generations start to buy into these new townhouses.
The most interesting to watch though is the main strip of shops at Keilor Rd as old businesses are shutting down to make way for new trendy businesses. The old woman's cloth shop is replaced by frozen yoghurt, sires makes way for another restaurant.
Then all the old homes which once lied the street are being bulldozed for high rise apartments with more retail on the ground.
The area is predominantly older generation with a lot of older Europeans (my wife and I get somewhat frustrated on the local roads!).
However the old 1950s homes are going down in droves making way for stylish new homes or multi dwellings. A lot more people my age are now being seen with prams as younger generations start to buy into these new townhouses.
The most interesting to watch though is the main strip of shops at Keilor Rd as old businesses are shutting down to make way for new trendy businesses. The old woman's cloth shop is replaced by frozen yoghurt, sires makes way for another restaurant.
Then all the old homes which once lied the street are being bulldozed for high rise apartments with more retail on the ground.
As opposed to all the dumb ones we got from 2014 onwards?
Back to the 'mindset about suburb's reputations' post. Many years ago I talked my daughter out of investing in Broadmeadows. Houses could be bought for $90/120k. I said it would never ever become gentrified. Guess what, all the old houses started to be pulled down and cheap units went up, then more expensive units, then townhouses. Now any house on a big block will get $350/$400 and up go 3 very nice townhouses.
Yes Albanga, Niddrie started to rocket in price 10 years ago and this has spilled over to Airport West. A suburb I would never in a million years thought would shift pricewise. Another suburb where prices are rocketing is Strathmore, nearly every old house is being pulled down and a McMansion being built in its place. Strictly residential there though
Yes Albanga, Niddrie started to rocket in price 10 years ago and this has spilled over to Airport West. A suburb I would never in a million years thought would shift pricewise. Another suburb where prices are rocketing is Strathmore, nearly every old house is being pulled down and a McMansion being built in its place. Strictly residential there though
Yeah fernfurn I actually recently drove through Strathmore to pick up a friend whose rich parents had moved there and I was gobsmacked by the homes! It was like each person was trying to go bigger and architectural bolder than the next.
Yeah the prices started 10 years ago and have spilt over to APW and EK but I really believe the area is currently going through it's biggest transition period since I have been here. Drive down Keilor Rd and count the apartments being built, just thinking of the top of my head I can think of 4 all with over 20 apartments in each. The trendy and famous 400 Gradi has moved into the commercial area of 1 as well.
Yeah the prices started 10 years ago and have spilt over to APW and EK but I really believe the area is currently going through it's biggest transition period since I have been here. Drive down Keilor Rd and count the apartments being built, just thinking of the top of my head I can think of 4 all with over 20 apartments in each. The trendy and famous 400 Gradi has moved into the commercial area of 1 as well.
Jamesp,
Very harsh review ... Caroline Springs is an eminently liveable suburb.
Edited his post. Obviously never been to Caroline Springs, it is THE jewel in the west. And Berwick is how far from the CBD again? I'd prefer CS thanks.
You're not too fond of the western Melbourne, but isn't it the same when the immigrants age (mostly Vietnamese community), the younger Australia-born asians start to transform the location into trendier, modern suburbs?
This is already apparent in Yarraville, Maribyrnong, even Footscray to a certain extend. The flow-on effect will no doubt, eventually reach Sunshine and its surrounding suburbs? You do realise Sunshine-CBD distance = Caulfield-CBD distance.
But having said all that, I personally would hesitate to live in the western suburbs now, but investment-wise, I think they are underrated.
Edited his post. Obviously never been to Caroline Springs, it is THE jewel in the west. And Berwick is how far from the CBD again? I'd prefer CS thanks.
Sorry couldn't help but LOL. I've been there and I'd have to say no one in their right mind would choose CS over Berwick! My dads side lived in Melton we'd travel across the entire west watching it change over the last 30 years. The dead grass and windmills slowing being replaced with dust estates.
If you're family's grown up in Melbourne for more than 3 generations then you'd understand that entire area is prairylands and comparing it to Berwick is lol distance or not. I suppose sunshine and spotswood are the "Tooraks" of the west as well!!!
Even Sunshine/Maidstone/Braybrook and Footscray are heavily undesirable to people who know Melbourne. I think too many people lately are disregarding how undesirable these suburbs really are for the sake of a few train stations and food courts. I assume many people are looking to invest here are interstate using cbd proximity as a marker for quality, frankly there are no jewels in the west and comparing Caroline Springs
to Berwick let alone anything in the Casey region in terms of aesthetics and demographics is absurd. Berwick has strong demand for owner occupiers because if you're willing to put distance aside, it's far nicer than most suburbs between it and the city.
The west is for proximity everything else it lacks in comparison to all other regions of Melbourne!
