where's phil when you need him asks babcocks dreams

[grossreal]

hi all
well looks like another one is not now on the ropes but is being administed hanging off the ropes
It was along run but it was always going to be a rugby tackle fall.
I alway like to keep an eye on a company that its ceo and chief leave.
oh and if yoy want have a look at alot of the banks that have also change chair holders
interesting times
its mid march and I think it was about this time that I said it will be very interesting to see what or who throw in the towel.
is this a front runner for mr rudd's dude bank.
there are a couple of funds that are frozen still yet and they will be on the drive past for a few receivers and liquidators.
I have one little question for all the billion sthat so far has been pledged and all the smoke screens about uniforms made in china
where is the action
we will see alot more of these fund close and they don't have the protection of the quarantee so they are bleeding like I have never seen before.
and they have not where to go except the dial a receiver.
I am watching history in the making
I here and read about history repeating well this is history and is back to the romans and nero plays while rome burns.
maybe we need to get four corners to have a look at what has been done since we had an election and has really been achieved.
the market is the same if not worse
the funds are frozen.
the bank got quarantee to ease lending and thats not happened
the banks have closed lending from 70% before the quarantee to 60% after and even then only to people that they know so in effect they got quarantee and reduced lending
we have a dude bank but the only groups that are going there are the boys that have friends and have not seen any real movement on that area
we had a housing affordability to build 700 mil worth of houses and they have built 50 I think and thats not 50 mil thats 50 houses
we have a minister that was saying that unemployment will be under 5% and then the next day could be well over.
we have a restrictive lending practice that a overseas funder the with holding tax is nearly twice the interest for the year
so if they lent into aust 100k they would charge 5% so 5k but they have to put up 10k witholding tax.
now I know a few people can do maths here but if your cost is twice the price of the interest you are going to get is that any form of incentive.
the way we are going the fin review will be thicker then the syd herald.
the bankers and solicitor will be claiming rsi for carrying the weight of the fin review
all I can say to the others if you are in a investment bank or fund and its frozen check and register for seek.com
bab is but the current one there are alot more to come.
I keep checking but my mate mr rudd (and I call him a mate as every time I see him he calls everyone mate so it must be a generic term) must be registered here
and if hes not some one here must know him.
and just give him a little nudge and say
WAKE UP
before he has to go and see a real sunburnt country
a burnt commercial country
with alot off dead and burning business,and a waste land that was the funds market.
maybe this is the destruction we had to have( I remamber part of those words from another great//// one of our so called leaders)

 

[chilliaa]

ah but this also makes it the time of opportunity if you can effectively sift the chaff from the wheat.
Assets that are being priced as chaff due to fear are still wheat.

 

[nonrecourse]

Bumble bee blows the Victorian budget history revisited

Hello GR

Good post, the sad times have really started to bite. The real show is yet to start. Just watch our banking four pillars start to sway when the financial shock waves reverberate into the residential market. The closest example to what is about to occur is the 1890's depression that caused a significant diminution of the home grown banks. Something like a third of them disappeared.

Don't be surprised if sometime between now and 2012 we see the four pillars folded into two because of the fall out from the residential property market collapse when the wrecking ball of panic cuts a swath through our big four balance sheets.

The state labour governments true to form have blown their state surpluses. I note Victoria who collected an extra 355 million in tax revenue this year managed to burn through all but 45 million of last years budget surplus of one billion fifty million dollars. They managed to keep their AAA credit rating by the skin of their teeth. We will certainly have another state election before next years deficit is announced

 

[josko]

Rudd wanted it, he got it. The stupid thing is I read most Australians are happy with him.

It's the blind leading the blind.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25183582-643,00.html

It was a business model that had too much debt and too little equity. They geared as much as the market withstood, but when the market turned down, the company had no room to move.

The straw that broke the camel's debt-laden back was Alinta Group. B&B went head to head with Macquarie Bank and outbid them to buy Alinta. Paying way over the odds, and using cash instead of scrip, the deal tipped them over the edge.

Before long, the sub-prime crisis hit debt markets and wreaked havoc on the empire and left financial engineering emperors without clothes.

But until then, at its peak, Green had amassed a personal fortune of at least $450 million, was bringing home pay packets in cash and bonuses of more than $15 million a year, and his appetite for risk and debt became insatiable.

Unlike shareholders who have lost everything, Green was lucky enough to get some of his money out, and is reported to have about $40 million left.

Green resigned as chief executive of B&B last August and remained on the board until September 15, while Babcock resigned as chairman in August and then cut and run as a director on November 3.

A few former Babcock & Brown executives contacted by The Weekend Australian attribute the rise and fall of Babcock to four things -- greed, greed, greed and hubris.

At least Phil got away with his share of the loot. He is an accountant afterall.

Regards Jo

 

[josko]

Hello GR

Good post, the sad times have really started to bite. The real show is yet to start. Just watch our banking four pillars start to sway when the financial shock waves reverberate into the residential market. The closest example to what is about to occur is the 1890's depression that caused a significant diminution of the home grown banks. Something like a third of them disappeared.

Don't be surprised if sometime between now and 2012 we see the four pillars folded into two because of the fall out from the residential property market collapse when the wrecking ball of panic cuts a swath through our big four balance sheets.

The state labour governments true to form have blown their state surpluses. I note Victoria who collected an extra 355 million in tax revenue this year managed to burn through all but 45 million of last years budget surplus of one billion fifty million dollars. They managed to keep their AAA credit rating by the skin of their teeth. We will certainly have another state election before next years deficit is announced

NR,

Will it even make any difference?

Regards JO

 

[eternit]

ah but this also makes it the time of opportunity if you can effectively sift the chaff from the wheat.
Assets that are being priced as chaff due to fear are still wheat.

How to do you that?

 

[nonrecourse]

NR,

Will it even make any difference?

Regards JO

If you are poor and disadvantaged yes at one end, if your a property investor with a string of properties that will be levied like when Jeff Kennett came in to balance the budget at the other end yes.

If your one of the majority of numbskulls who voted these kleptomaniac bleeding hearts in no. I'm always amused how when the boys in blue are re-elected each time to pay down the red ink the other side has amassed we get the teachers and tree huggers coming out from under their rocks to moan and ***** about how harsh and uncaring the conservatives are.

History repeats and repeats and......

 

[grossreal]

hi chilliaa there is alot of wheat the trouble will be that there wil be alot of others trying to grab the same wheat
so thats the big problem

 

[steveadl]

If your one of the majority of numbskulls who voted these kleptomaniac bleeding hearts in no. I'm always amused how when the boys in blue are re-elected each time to pay down the red ink the other side has amassed we get the teachers and tree huggers coming out from under their rocks to moan and ***** about how harsh and uncaring the conservatives are.

History repeats and repeats and......

Sadly, so true.

 

[chilliaa]

hi chilliaa there is alot of wheat the trouble will be that there wil be alot of others trying to grab the same wheat
so thats the big problem

No thats the whole point, because the whole market is paralysed with fear, listed securities of all natures (except the bluest of defensive) are NOT being priced at anything approaching fair value. At the moment the market is dominated by a 'get me out of here at any price, just get me out'.

There is alot of chaff, which makes sorting through to find the wheat time consuming, but when you find that wheat that is selling for the same price as chaff: BINGO

 

[chilliaa]

My other problem and ive never had this headache before, is that my investments are now so cashflow positive that even with interest costs on borrowings i am now looking at jumping from the 30% personal income tax rate (i can manipulate my own salary by determining how much to draw from my business) into the top marginal tax rate. Franking credits are only 30% so this wont fully offset the tax bill anymore.

Dam annoying, once asset prices start to recover im definately going to move part of the profits overseas.

 

[Dazz]

There is alot of chaff, which makes sorting through to find the wheat time consuming

Time to get the John Deere out with the 50ft comb and get a few laps in.

 

[chilliaa]

Time to get the John Deere out with the 50ft comb and get a few laps in.

haha No need the internet is my John Deere, google, periodic reporting to the asx, and company websites are my 50ft comb. The major headache is each periodic (half year or annual report) can be up to 200 pages long including notes to the accounts (which is where alot of the juicy information can be found). So each time something *****s my interest, there is a quick view of their previous 10years financial historical overview followed by about 5 hours of reading followed by several days of reflection (what does the market know that i dont, or is the market just scared). I then need to go through previous annual reports to get a feel for a company's integrity and management ability, this can involve going back a number of years. For debt and hybrid instruments i have to go back to the original offer document.

But its worth it, in normal market conditions i could never do this, as there are alot of experts looking for outperformance, in a bullish market its even harder as assets are being priced on blue sky assumptions. Right now many of those experts have their hands tied by corporate head office, the arbitrage players dont have capital authority to play right now, private equity has already played its hand during the times of easy debt and hedge funds are playing in markets with much more liquidity (as a small investor i can fly under the radar).

 

[chilliaa]

hey i didnt swear,
moderators your swear word automatic modifer is picking up words that can be a swear word, but are also normal english.

pr*ck up ones ears: To listen with attentive interest