Where's the crash

[audas]

Try using the search function, you will see it has been used before and I believe debunked.

And why is it reality?

Wheres the crash mr keen, time has almost ran out and we aren't even close.
I do hope you like the walk up the mountain

Dave

Um - at least one link would be nice thanks bud. Or I take it you cant back this up at all - a 17% increase - please you are the only person on the planet thinking that - cods wallop pure and simple.

Seriously try listening to what every person in Australia, sorry the planet is saying, I am absolutely gob smacked that you can simply post irrationalities like this without any back up, claim or justification, fail to address well reasoned arguments.

Links and reasoning otherwise these types of posts are inflammatory and serve zero purpose beyond reading your won words in print - however meaningless that is.

 

[steveadl]

Um - at least one link would be nice thanks bud. Or I take it you cant back this up at all - a 17% increase - please you are the only person on the planet thinking that - cods wallop pure and simple.

What are you on?!

He's quoting from the ABC article you just posted:

A leading analyst is predicting engineering construction will fall by almost $14 billion over the next two financial years.

BIS Shrapnel says the decline will follow strong growth this financial year, tipped to be about 17 per cent.
Economist Damon Roast says while there has be a rise in Federal Government-funded work, it will not be enough to offset a fall in activity from other levels of government and privately funded work.

 

[csc]

What are you on?!

He's quoting from the ABC article you just posted:

"Snicker" !!!

I thought the same actually... but didnt want to ruffle any feathers..already do that enough on here....

BIS Shrapnel are a joke!

Good luck if you follow this mob...

 

[BoatBoy]

Um - at least one link would be nice thanks bud. Or I take it you cant back this up at all - a 17% increase - please you are the only person on the planet thinking that - cods wallop pure and simple.

Seriously try listening to what every person in Australia, sorry the planet is saying, I am absolutely gob smacked that you can simply post irrationalities like this without any back up, claim or justification, fail to address well reasoned arguments.

Links and reasoning otherwise these types of posts are inflammatory and serve zero purpose beyond reading your won words in print - however meaningless that is.

What are you on?!

He's quoting from the ABC article you just posted:

LMAO

Pretty funny , I bet his cleaning up the keyboard and screen now.

Next he'll come back and say they are part of those lies, damn lies and housing statistics that keen froths on about.

Dave

 

[BoatBoy]

"Snicker" !!!

I thought the same actually... but didnt want to ruffle any feathers..already do that enough on here....

BIS Shrapnel are a joke!

Good luck if you follow this mob...

Hey, audas is the fan, at least while he thought they supported his point.

Dave

 

[audas]

Hey, audas is the fan, at least while he thought they supported his point.

Dave

Oh my god - are you serious - you are mocking me and you don't even understand what has been said - how entirely ridiculous.

First off - lest see this rebuttal - oops that's right there is none - your a liar !!! Why because his figures are entirely sound. Facts if you will.

Second of all what is the 17% growth in? Construction - oooh thats right, for the past financial year , the one just ended, what does that mean - no return on the investment as demand fall straight of eh edge of a cliff...

Please try and show SOME honest in your posts - otherwise you look entirely foolish.

I'm actually becoming quite glad you are in for such massive correction, the way you like to belittle anyone who offers sound honest advice becuase it doesn't confirm your illiterate self serving "belief" structure -

You have just been completely ridiculed. Try and show some maturity in your responses.

 

[steveadl]

Ummmm no you misunderstood BoatBoy to be expecting 17% growth and how ridiculous that was and where was his article to back it up.

All he was doing was quoting a line from the ABC article you posted, referring to the fact that now that BIS Shrapnel are predicting downturns in the economy etc the D&G'ers now find their surveys/research acceptable to quote and quite valid view points. As opposed to the way the D&G'ers mocked BIS Shrapnel when their research was predicting high property growth.

 

[BoatBoy]

the way you like to belittle anyone who offers sound honest advice becuase it doesn't confirm your illiterate self serving "belief" structure -

You have just been completely ridiculed. Try and show some maturity in your responses.

Even funnier

You do realise you have just done exactly what you accused me of dont you



Dave

 

[steveadl]

Even funnier

You do realise you have just done exactly what you accused me of dont you



Dave

Good ol foot in mouth disease eh Dave?!

Don't expect him to correct himself, he can't back down now - you're in for it mate!!

 

[Ausprop]

It has also become abundantly clear that everything the government has done to increase housing affordability has failed, with the only option left to ACTUALLY do something about it which will come in the form of releasing new land

this doesn't make a lot of sense - you are saying that nothing is likely to prop up property prices, so why would the govt be rushing off to release new land when you say that is the singular thing that would make prices drop?

converting raw land to vacnt lots tho is an expensive process. with the current sales of finished dwellings at or near the repalcement cost of raw materials and labour it will be a catastrophic failure in demand that will see prices go much lower (not saying it will or won't happen, but it's akin to the situation with the current oil price - a temprorary abomination due to a destruction of demand... a shock if you will).

 

[Ausprop]

I'm actually becoming quite glad you are in for such massive correction, the way you like to belittle anyone who offers sound honest advice becuase it doesn't confirm your illiterate self serving "belief" structure -

given the size of your holdings this massive correction will hurt you a lot more than it will hurt 99% of the posters on here

 

[yieldmatters]

All he was doing was quoting a line from the ABC article you posted, referring to the fact that now that BIS Shrapnel are predicting downturns in the economy etc the D&G'ers now find their surveys/research acceptable to quote and quite valid view points. As opposed to the way the D&G'ers mocked BIS Shrapnel when their research was predicting high property growth.

BIS Shrapnel are a disgrace .... No credibility left in the bag after they sold it all to the highest bidder.

 

[BoatBoy]

Originally Posted by audas
I'm actually becoming quite glad you are in for such massive correction, the way you like to belittle anyone who offers sound honest advice becuase it doesn't confirm your illiterate self serving "belief" structure -

How old are you?

Dave

 

[sash]

I see no correction....just some minor movements in property values - 5-10%....though in selective high end properties and some mortgagee sales you get 30-40% off. They will be an exception rather than a rule.....

I saw the last recession and similar things happened.

So for the D&Gers expecting a catastrophic crash they will be disappointed....more likely the median price may pull back say 5%...that is all. Remember that Australia has different dynamics and we have a housing shortage.

given the size of your holdings this massive correction will hurt you a lot more than it will hurt 99% of the posters on here

 

[audas]

How old are you?

Dave

I don't know why you even bother posting, all you ever do is provide witty one liners like "how old ar you"......wow.

How about you respond to the arguments, the threads, or I know back up what you have said and provide some eveidence as to things being discredited, or what that 17% drop refers to as you roll around laughing.


Every single post I have made on this thread has backed up sound reasoning and evidence, my posts are vastly more reliable and have consistently proven to be correct - all you do is attempt to discredit the person with very poorly constructed one liners, truly infantile stuff.

Instead of clogging up this thread with what amount to truly, juvenile, if not out right embarrassing character shots, try and actually do some research and show some form of credibility.

And to the post above, if my investments go down in value - they go down. That's my point, attempting to influence market sentiment by posting inane, delusional and denials of market reality is not going to change that fact. However I have no interests worries, capital outlays, or any other debt obligations like I suspect almost all of you do.

However on paper I may get smashed, however that is the point I am trying to get across here, only the biggest fool could ever believe that we are not going through the most severe down turn we have seen decades, its simply a fact. Further the evidence is stark that the Australian situation is very precarious nationally due to huge down turns in demand, which will cost unemployment massively which will completely undermine the market..

Again, the actions of the government clearly indicate that they are concerned with the market, their is an imbalance, providing grants and assurance to mortgage defaulters is undeniable evidence of this.

The supply of housing in Australia has been acknowledged by the TBA and many other institutions to perhaps not be as under supplied as is being made out, figures are consistently showing this -

the indicators are lining up all the way down the block and across the street park that there is a massive correction coming.

I have backed up my arguments succinctly and with external sources - you have not.

 

[sash]

Audas,

Yes the government is concerned as we are in a recession...if they do nothing they damage their chances for re-election.

Yes...the govt has seen the bubble forming in the FHB market end...thus why they will end grant for older houses....but my bet is they keep or increase the new home grant as it stimulates more activity via employment.

As for housing being under supplied..still true for most capital cities bar some areas. Who exactly are the TBA?? The REIA (Real Estate Insitute), HIA (Housing Industry Association), RBA, etc. have all said there is a shortage. It is in the order of 30k per annum. The GFC is causing a lot of this due to developers now needing to have up to 80% of their developments sold prior to commencement!

Also ....age is factor from a life experience point of view....have you seen and lived through a recession...or is this knowledge all text book??? No meaning to be "ageist" here...but in my view experience trumps the academic knowledge.

Again, the actions of the government clearly indicate that they are concerned with the market, their is an imbalance, providing grants and assurance to mortgage defaulters is undeniable evidence of this.

The supply of housing in Australia has been acknowledged by the TBA and many other institutions to perhaps not be as under supplied as is being made out, figures are consistently showing this -

the indicators are lining up all the way down the block and across the street park that there is a massive correction coming.

I have backed up my arguments succinctly and with external sources - you have not.

 

[ffc1883_1996]

Every single post I have made on this thread has backed up sound reasoning and evidence, my posts are vastly more reliable and have consistently proven to be correct - all you do is attempt to discredit the person with very poorly constructed one liners, truly infantile stuff.

audas I suggest you take a deep breath and think for a moment why it is that you have been greeted with more than a little suspicion here. My thoughts are…

You joined a property investing forum just to tell property investors that property investing is stuffed! No?

Can't you see how this could turn people off a little?

Anyway, that’s only part of the reason you haven’t made many friends here yet. You see, the Somersoft community has endured many such new posters in recent times. Some of them make the same points as you, quoting the same sources, and get awfully upset (like you) when anyone dare post anything to the contrary.

The arguments that you put forward have already been debated on Somersoft over and over and over again (I’d be a little surprised if that “debtdeflation” source you mentioned has received more coverage anywhere else in the world) and, frankly, I think were tiring of it. So if posts in response to yours have lacked content and substance, maybe it’s because it’s all been done before and it’s pretty clear from your posts that you’re not going to be swayed.


Good luck to you – Ben

BTW, I’m 33.

 

[Ausprop]

to be fair to Keen, I am seeing the impact of reduced lending in some of the suburbs I have been looking at. A house that has a price of tag of say $1.8m, well unless there is a cash buyer the biggest no doc loan you can get is $1m, as a result a lot of those prices are drifting closer to the value of that mortgage plus the equity that people may have.

we also need to bear in mind thast just because we have watched prices rise since the 70s we may feel we have seen a very long trend, but have we seen the bigger picture (or bigger graph?)

 

[csc]

I see no correction....just some minor movements in property values - 5-10%....though in selective high end properties and some mortgagee sales you get 30-40% off. They will be an exception rather than a rule.....

I saw the last recession and similar things happened.

i think it is very unwise to even consider comparing the last recession to this one sash.........

i cant see 30-40% drop but i can see already in several areas 20% drops in mid range properties.....


having said that its not the norm just yet in most areas but i think unless your an ostrich the chances are the trend will continue down slowly for quite some time (years) in my opinion...

im still a firm believer that when the dust settles and the housing market starts to turn around with certainty we all will have to contend with inflation factors which will definitely reflect on house volume sales and momentum of upwards spikes faltering for a bit.........

my two cents worth...

its the "real" unknown of the next two-three years that has everyone guessing right now..

im happy to watch the market correct somewhat be it slowly.....it gives an opportunity for new players investing to enter the market and for those that want to bail an opportunity to cash out and fence sit...

cheers

 

[BayView]

How old are you?

Dave

You are all wasting your time and fingertips on this guy.

He won't tell you his age and/or wallet size.

I'll bet he'll tell you his academic creds though.

Let him cry "sky is falling".

Maybe it is; I'm looking for an umbrella and keep going.