Where's the crash

I don't know why you even bother posting, all you ever do is provide witty one liners like "how old ar you"......wow.

And all you ever do is post the same doom and gloom stuff that a hundred before you have done..................WOW

How about you respond to the arguments, the threads, or I know back up what you have said and provide some eveidence as to things being discredited, or what that 17% drop refers to as you roll around laughing.
Gee mate, how about you back up your own argument.
It was your link. I just took a snip from your linked article pointing out that BIS, who you would have said previously were fools, are now credible.

I was questioning who was the greater fool, BIS or the poster that chops and changes his impression as to who is a credible source on an article depending on when it suits his post.


Every single post I have made on this thread has backed up sound reasoning and evidence, my posts are vastly more reliable and have consistently proven to be correct - all you do is attempt to discredit the person with very poorly constructed one liners, truly infantile stuff.
Who says youre posts are more reliable............You?

You used BIS as a source:p, you realise how silly and unreliable some would suggest that makes you look?

Instead of clogging up this thread with what amount to truly, juvenile, if not out right embarrassing character shots, try and actually do some research and show some form of credibility.
Put me on ignore then, or how does it go, "I hope you enjoy the pension".:rolleyes:

Why would I waste my time going over the same thing over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over again.

Its been done ad infinitum and ad nauseam here already.

This is why I suggested you use the search function in future.

And to the post above, if my investments go down in value - they go down. That's my point, attempting to influence market sentiment by posting inane, delusional and denials of market reality is not going to change that fact.
Wow, incredible deduction prices go up and prices go down, which one of those uni degree's was required to figure that one out.:p

Do you honestly believe that the small amount of posters and readers here compared to in the market make any difference to actually influencing that market?

If you do, may I suggest that it is you who are delusional.

However I have no interests worries, capital outlays, or any other debt obligations like I suspect almost all of you do.
However on paper I may get smashed, however that is the point I am trying to get across here,
Family run portfolio extends to 15 acres of approved subdivision property in Australia's première coastal resort, 30 house / apartment urban development in central capital city, pubs, residential property.

I have to say, it sounds like old money, if its Family run and you have been overseas, is it any wonder you have no interests worries, capital outlays, or any other debt obligations.

I may be wrong, if I am, congratulations are a Hero and a Legend.
May I present you with the "Financial Legends Merit Badge"
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only the biggest fool could ever believe that we are not going through the most severe down turn we have seen decades, its simply a fact. Further the evidence is stark that the Australian situation is very precarious nationally due to huge down turns in demand, which will cost unemployment massively which will completely undermine the market..

Again, the actions of the government clearly indicate that they are concerned with the market, their is an imbalance, providing grants and assurance to mortgage defaulters is undeniable evidence of this.

The supply of housing in Australia has been acknowledged by the TBA and many other institutions to perhaps not be as under supplied as is being made out, figures are consistently showing this -

the indicators are lining up all the way down the block and across the street park that there is a massive correction coming.
I have never denied that, if you say I have you are a liar.
Its the size of the correction I have an issue with.
Remember it has to be 40% plus tipping point Q1 2008, not just a few places here and a few places there that have had a haircut.

I have backed up my arguments succinctly and with external sources - you have not.
What external sources, Bis crapnel and Steve keen?

Do a search on here mate, there are plenty of external sources used to back up the same old arguments, but the sources this forum uses you would probably discount as being unreliable or having a vested interest.:rolleyes:

Dave
 
Has not responded my mine either....should I be counting my blessings.

I find it curious about these mad men shouting about a universal 40% collapse in property....I can see this selectively happening but not universally....never has and never will.

Having said that...I am slightly bearish on property till unemployment and the FHB palava ends.

Ausdas never responds to my posts.

I have that affect on people. :D
 
Take no notice, just another little chappie from the other side having a stir just because he can. He will soon take his bat and ball and go home just like the rest of them!
 
Well look on the bright side, we only have to wait until Oct of this year to confirm his prediction of the ASX going to 2200, and for, was it next year, for the AU$ to go to US$0.38, and for residential property to fall in 2010 by 40% on medium price averages.

Thats the trouble with extreme D&G'ers they dig themselves into a big whole, ride off into the Sunset, and come back with another profile ID, so they arent accountable for previous posts, and can start the D&G again with some 'new forecasts'.

Anway guys post to your hearts continent, but just dont take your eyes off the ball. Whilst you are continuously debating with such people, you may miss opportunities.
 
Miss opportunities? I am only missing them because house prices are going up so fast around me. i dont see how that is a crash (south western sydney)
 
Miss opportunities? I am only missing them because house prices are going up so fast around me. i dont see how that is a crash (south western sydney)

so true! we are in inner north melb and it is crazy with ppl starting to freak out and spend up big before the FHOG finishes. 'first home owner' properties in our area are advertised around the $600k+!!! :eek:
 
I rest my case, that is a potential loss of an opportunity, depending on ones personal circumstances.
For those that wished to acquire more residential property in the lower price brackets, late last year would have been a perfect opportunity which is now missed.

Thats why i say be very careful listening to extreme D&G'ers. Some people who were in a position to buy and wanted to buy may have been reading the D&G'ers opinions and thinking, better i wait and see, they could be right. And the trouble with D&G posts, during periods when the S***T hits the fan and everyone is scared their posts can appear (but not actually be) to make sense.

So not only has the price point opportunity been missed, but also required minimum LVR ratio's are on the rise (which is good for the long term stability of property as a whole, but not good for certain individuals that have prudent money management skills, but dont necessarily show that on paper).

There for in conclusion: be aware of the environment, but only YOU know your personal circumstances. Do your own homework and realise both the limitations of forecasting and that by the time you get the OK from the majority of people, the asset will be priced accordingly (this applies to all investment class assets, not just property).
 
Bear sees light at the end of the cave

I just HAD to post some of the quotes from this article. Enjoy!

The forecasting business is littered with false prophets and headline-seekers and no-one's crystal ball comes with a guarantee, but when such a rational and consistent bear as Minack calls the bottom, it's worth listening.

As surely as bears defecate in the woods, Minack isn't calling the start of a new bull market. He remains characteristically cautious about recovery in the developed world, stating the Morgan Stanley international equity team's line that it will be slow and face significant headwinds - but it is a recovery.

I interviewed a successful value investor earlier this week who says he knows he can't time the market and takes solace in all the studies that show it can't be sustainably done. He therefore concentrates on buying and holding strategically strong companies without high debt - a strategy that has worked very well indeed and is much easier to implement when the market has crashed.

And when Australia's rational bear sees recovery coming, however slowly, the value investor's lot becomes an even happier one.
 
I just HAD to post some of the quotes from this article. Enjoy!

I agree with EVERY part of this post:D
But maybe thats just because i am a value based investor.
For the record i also agree with the part that says that we wont be going into boom time conditions over a sustainable period any time soon. But you dont need a boom to profit when certain asset classes were being priced on 1930's scenarios.
 
ridiculous. I don't think opportunities have been missed, I'd be surprised if last years prices aren't seen again once the hot air in this lower end bubble blows out.

I dissagree a 5% or 10% increase is not a bubble.

IMO opportunities have been missed because even if the FHBG dissapears tomorrow we are still in a low interest rate environment and affordability is still good so prices at the bottom end won't fall. Prices will trickle upwards following CPI.

Also, as others have said the LVR's are falling and lending is becoming more difficult. Some banks now want to see that you've saved the 10% deposit. Many years ago one of the requirements for getting loan approval was 6 months of savings and 20% deposit.

IMO for young people who don't have much deposit, this is their last opportunity to get in. They are given a decent amount of money and they don't need a big deposit or a savings history.

When the FHBG is removed, the alternative would be to save the equivalent of the FHBG ($14K/21K) plus $10-15K for stamp duty plus the additional 10% of the property value and this could take some people 2 or more years. In those 2 years rents would have gone up and property prices at the low end would have climbed up another 10%

My advise to young people? find a cheap roof and put it over your head because this task will become much more difficult later on.

Our first property was the cheapest in the suburb (that's all we could afford)
We've fixed it up slowly and later on we used it as a stepping stone for our next house. I remember my wife winging about how the house was so small and the kitchen and bathroom needed work etc but I said that's all we can afford dear and we'll fix it up. We had been looking for a long time and I knew that if we waited to save up the money and buy our dream home we would still be renting. That decision changed our life.

It's a big decision to make but people have nothing to lose other than their small deposit and the loan repayment is similar to paying rent. Think about it, they are given free money and stamp duty exemption. When we bought our first home we got nothing.
 
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so true! we are in inner north melb and it is crazy with ppl starting to freak out and spend up big before the FHOG finishes. 'first home owner' properties in our area are advertised around the $600k+!!! :eek:

Um...I don't think these are "first home owner" properties....this has been my argument all along...first home owners should buy in shitty outer suburbs at low entry costs. Get a grip youngens....
 

Ahh - like I said - everything I have stated is happening - exaclty as stated - oh and whats even more UNSURPRISING is that everything the bulls have been bullkrapping on about has not - thanks and Q.E.D

Well as stated - it has begun...hope you have all been spending up big.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=aKEK8cOcvqC8&refer=australia

http://uk.reuters.com/article/marketsNewsUS/idUKSYD47457120090504?pageNumber=3

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25426170-20142,00.html

http://www.news.com.au/business/money/story/0,28323,25425279-5013951,00.html

http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,25415874-661,00.html

And the list goes on from every major source in the country - but of course - there's low interest rates and there is no evidence of falling prices or a recession ....blah,blah,blah,blah -

You've just been roasted - thanks.
 
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Ahh - like I said - everything I have stated is happening - exaclty as stated
......
You've just been roasted - thanks.
What did you advise your family to do with their 15 acres of coastal subdivision & commercial properties & developments ? And did they do it ?
 
crash?

So, the unit which was for sale in our complex in Frankston has been sold.

I called the agent just now to ask what it sold for.

It is apparently one of the smaller ones in the complex, and sold for between $207K and $210k.

Last one sold in the complex was a year after we bought ours in 2004.

It was sold for $148k in 2004.

I asked the agent how it was traveling in Frangers and she said it was very busy, all the lower end stock was selling very quickly and she couldn't keep stock for more than a few days.
 
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