It was always going to be a W recovery - on the charts atleast - that's a given. You always need a retest on the monthly chart at the end of a cycle to confirm that a new cycle has statred. There's no genius in that. Have a look at the 1991, 1974 lows and every 18 or so years before that (excluding WW2).
If this run (which should run till September before a proper bounce) takes out the March 09 lows then a world depression could be on the cards. The key point would be the halfway mark of last years run up i.e. midpoint of March 09 low and April 10 high - around 4000 or so.
This is the time for those in cash to pounce....not now - Sept or so - if the market holds up above March 09 high. But it would be bullish if it holds the 4000 mark and goes up. So basically, if the stock markets are making a higher low, (relative to 2009) on all the bad news, this tells u that the GFC is over, despite all the opinion about it. This is the critical point for investors to be able to interpret. But few ever get to see it correctly.