Why Abbott could lose the ‘unloseable’ election

[BayView]

I'm ashamed to admit I voted liberal when I see the low gutter politics that he is using, and the lack of any vision, apart from constant negativity and attacks.

I thought it was all pretty standard stuff really; the Opposition taking any chance to make the incumbent Party looking bad, a bit of below-the-belt stuff etc. Been going on since Gough was a boy.

Shoulda seen the USA campaign when Obama and Hilary were the contenders - I was there - lots of horrible stuff from both sides and most players.

I am also thoroughly fed up with the current lot for their poor policies and lack of any real vision.

Hewson made the mistake of showing his hand too early; Abbott won't do it. He'll wait until closer to the business end to trot out the policies and details.

 

[evand]

Thats not what the apology was for. It was for saying that Gillard 'set up' the trust fund. And she didnt, she offered advice only.

As for Tony, he quoting from an OLD statement from Jac Nasser, the BHP statement that he didnt read, yes he did, no he didnt, was from the day before. Sales was referring to that statement, not the old one from Nasser.

Can we get some truth down here please?

Also, what is it that you "note" with regard to the "official" apology from the Australian. Seems Julia's diversion nonsense has worked on some after all. How dare they say trust fund in error instead of slush fund

 

[evand]

There is no precedent in Australian politics of the lies, scare campaigns, dumb sloganeering that Abbott has used in the last 2 years. None.

As for Abbott showing his hand. He doesnt have one. He has nothing to show except the above and is being exposed now.

I thought it was all pretty standard stuff really; the Opposition taking any chance to make the incumbent Party looking bad, a bit of below-the-belt stuff etc. Been going on since Gough was a boy.

Shoulda seen the USA campaign when Obama and Hilary were the contenders - I was there - lots of horrible stuff from both sides and most players.

Hewson made the mistake of showing his hand too early; Abbott won't do it. He'll wait until closer to the business end to trot out the policies and details.

 

[Hoffy]

Thats not what the apology was for. It was for saying that Gillard 'set up' the trust fund. And she didnt, she offered advice only.

As for Tony, he quoting from an OLD statement from Jac Nasser, the BHP statement that he didnt read, yes he did, no he didnt, was from the day before. Sales was referring to that statement, not the old one from Nasser.

Can we get some truth down here please?

The truth is in the quotes from Kloppers. The one he told investors when he left the country yesterday which reconciles precisely with what Nasser has to say just a few short months ago. Sorry that the truth doesn't meet your requirements.

And yes they apologized for saying she setup a trust fund instead of a slush fund. She admits to setting up a slush fund.

Someone on your side really wants her gone don't they.....

 

[Hoffy]

I'm ashamed to admit I voted liberal when I see the low gutter politics that he is using,

You don't attribute the current troubles of Julia to a campaign by Tony do you?

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/pm-and-a-fistful-of-questions-20120824-24rtj.html

Even the fairfax guys know that's not true. It's an inside job

 

[Aaron_C]

It's all Tony's Fault (c), Hoffy. Get with the facts please.

 

[Dazz]

I'm ashamed to admit I voted liberal

What ?? You lying toad.

You posted previously that you lived in the Warringah seat (Tony Abbott's own electorate) but couldn't stomach voting for him.

You also couldn't stand Labor, so you voted for Austen Tayshus, the washed up comedian representing the Australian Sex Party.

Turn it up Ideo, your left wing ideological fence sitting impresses no-one.

With a thumping 13.1% margin (increased by 4.3%), Tony Abbott is the most popular man in town in your neck of the woods.

You're in the tiny minority son. You're gonna have to cry in your beer for a bit longer.

 

[Sunfish]

Latest Labor internal poll points to annihilation

That is why the LABOR organization is pushing the S & G scandal so hard. Privately, they know what's ahead.

 

[HotRod]

That is why the LABOR organization is pushing the S & G scandal so hard. Privately, they know what's ahead.

Just lining up their ducks for the leaderships spill.

OK, who's the logical replacement, for our next "un-elected" PM?

 

[Ideo]

What ?? You lying toad.

You posted previously that you lived in the Warringah seat (Tony Abbott's own electorate) but couldn't stomach voting for him.

You also couldn't stand Labor, so you voted for Austen Tayshus, the washed up comedian representing the Australian Sex Party.

Turn it up Ideo, your left wing ideological fence sitting impresses no-one.

With a thumping 13.1% margin (increased by 4.3%), Tony Abbott is the most popular man in town in your neck of the woods.

You're in the tiny minority son. You're gonna have to cry in your beer for a bit longer.

There has been more than one election in the history of Australia..

 

[Crabnet]

The truth is in the quotes from Kloppers. The one he told investors when he left the country yesterday which reconciles precisely with what Nasser has to say just a few short months ago. Sorry that the truth doesn't meet your requirements.
.....

You're muddying the waters.
If you had read the linked article that you posted you would have seen he was talking about Eastern Seaboard coal.
Olympic Dam is not a coal mine it is a Copper and Uranium mine that also produces some gold and silver
Kloppers:
"A ''very substantial chunk'' of Australia's thermal coal production was ''non-cash generative at today's cost structures and prices''.
''It is very difficult to visualise, given the current set of conditions and outlook, that any mining company can approve new capital in the [Australian] coal business at this point and get a return."
''What I am seeing on the eastern seaboard in Australia is that the coal industry has been very heavily impacted by lower prices, higher operating costs, carbon taxes and increased royalties,''

FYI something that is impacting on coal prices is the huge investment by US producers into coal shale gas according to Nick Raffan.
"In a nutshell, low gas prices in the USA have caused some power stations to switch fuel source from coal to gas. The response of some coal miners was to dump thermal coal in the European market. Coal exported to Europe from the USA has displaced coal from South Africa. In turn the South African producers have dumped coal into the Asian market, Australia’s backyard. If this situation continues long-term, given that production costs are soaring, many Aussie thermal producers will face mounting operating losses and they sure as hell will not be liable to pay tax. The FOB cost for the smaller producers of thermal seems to be around $A70/t or thereabouts, making for an uncomfortable margin with thermal coal falling towards US$80/t.

Troubles in the coal industry are coming home to roost. The Raff was recently told that around 90 geologists from two consulting companies were recently made redundant. The Raff believes that most of these geologists were involved in the coal and gas industries, and that layoffs are probably, at least in part, related to one of the biggest coal miners telling line managers costs must be cut by 30%.

 

[Dazz]

given that production costs are soaring

Is that a given ??

If so, what is driving the higher costs ??

 

[cu@thetop]

My theory is that if enough media attention is given to the current shennanigans of the Qld Liberal party- Abbot may actually have a chance of losing what till now seemed to be a must win election. I suppose a 20 year old scandal may go some way to diverting attention

 

[Crabnet]

Is that a given ??

If so, what is driving the higher costs ??

The "experts" say too many projects occurring at once driving prices higher.
Poor capital productivity.
Poor management and lack of R&D to improve efficiencies.
The easy stuff has already been mined making the remaining stuff dearer to process. Diesel Costs.

Anyhow BHP Billiton have supplied a transcript of what Kloppers actually said in Europe that doesn't include any editorialising from a "reporter".

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-08-24/marius-kloppers-on-australian-commodities/4220828?section=business
EMMA ROWLEY, THE TELEGRAPH: Back to the Olympic Dam again, sorry. How much has Australian mining tax played into that decision?

MARIUS KLOPPERS: It is not subject to mining tax. Mining tax is only on coal and iron ore, nothing to do with that. This is about capex escalation and efficiencies that have made that an unviable project.

EMMA ROWLEY: I have seen some commentary and the political reaction.

MARIUS KLOPPERS: I have seen that. I am just stating the facts as they are.

This is an escalation in capex, driven by labour efficiencies, tight labour market, tight supplier market, high exchange rates and high diesel costs, which has made a concept we thought would work unviable.

EMMA ROWLEY: There are people who think it is politically motivated.

MARIUS KLOPPERS: You have to ask them. I can tell you it is capex.

EMMA ROWLEY: There have been reports from Deutsche saying that Australia might be heading into recession. Do you have a view on that?

MARIUS KLOPPERS: I do think that what I am seeing on the Eastern Seaboard in Australia is that the coal industry has been very heavily impacted by lower prices, higher operating costs, carbon taxes and increased royalties.

 

[Hoffy]

Speaking of elections, there was another electoral disaster for Labor last night. That of course is no surprise. What was a surprise to me as someone who is never really looked too deeply at NT elections, is the size of their government.

Talk about over governed. 25 members for a population of 230k!!!!! And they still have a separate Darwin City Council of 13 elected councillors. Crazy.

 

[Crabnet]

Speaking of elections, there was another electoral disaster for Labor last night. That of course is no surprise. What was a surprise to me as someone who is never really looked too deeply at NT elections, is the size of their government.

Talk about over governed. 25 members for a population of 230k!!!!! And they still have a separate Darwin City Council of 13 elected councilors. Crazy.

Having just seen some reporting on the election they say that the remote communities had very large swings away from Labor which decided the result.
Their dissatisfaction is apparently due to local council amalgamations that created super shires that left the local Aboriginal communities feeling dis-empowered.
I'd imagine there was some cronyism when the shires were set up that left locals feeling shafted too.

 

[Deltaberry]

Only reason Abbott will lose (despite the fact he lies through his teeth) is because this country has too many tree-huggers who don't want to contribute to society but want free education and free organic popcorn (seriously who eats organic popcorn?!?!)

 

[BayView]

The "experts" say too many projects occurring at once driving prices higher.
Poor capital productivity.
Poor management and lack of R&D to improve efficiencies.
The easy stuff has already been mined making the remaining stuff dearer to process. Diesel Costs.

Anyhow BHP Billiton have supplied a transcript of what Kloppers actually said in Europe that doesn't include any editorialising from a "reporter".

Add to this Keith Lacy's (Chairman of Macarthur coal) interview yesterday on Andrew Bolt's show.

The headline of the story was about; "Is the mining boom over?" or words to that effect.

Keith didn't go so far as to say it's over, but he did say that if it wasn't for the mining industry we would have a recession, and....

He further added that the regulations and conditions were now killing incentive for mining; it was as if the mining industry is seen as the enemy in this country, and efforts are made to constantly hamper developments and investment.

An example he gave was about how long it used to take from identifying a material (for mining) to start of production as typically about 18 months or thereabouts - now having blown out to 5 years and in some cases over 1000 conditions.

He even mentioned how one project was shelved because the protesters successfully won a condition whereby the Redback spiders on the site had to be removed safely from the area before any work could commence (I swear this is what he said).

And then he laughingly mentioned how next we'd have a OH&S manual of procedures on how to remove the spiders from the site correctly etc.

In a nutshell; the industry will be regulated to oblivion and seriously deter O/S and local investment; rising costs, regulations and delays combined with lower productivity and profits....

 

[cu@thetop]

I lol'd a bit at this article:

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/abrasive-newman-gives-labor-a-lift-20120826-24u8t.html

It's funny cause it's true.

Fed libs need to start distancing themselve asap to maintain their current popularity.

 

[Dazz]

Rubbish. Under Labor's policies up there in Queensland, the economy has been trashed - to the tune of a debt of 65 Billion. That's a big number for a solitary state.

65 Billion worth of mismanagement. Ouch.

Queenslanders in March unilaterally voted to get themselves out of the Labor poo pile. Enough was enough.

Hasn't anyone figured up there, that you cannot keep doing what Labor have done and turn the ship around. At some point, the revenues for Qlds need to improve and the costs need to come waaaay down.

You've been over-spending for 20 years. The voters know it.

Having some left wing bleeding heart journo from the SMH chip in with their Labor loving rhetoric (I noticed in the article he didn't mention the Labor debt, not once....which is the source of the Qlders pain).

If Qld was a town hall, they've been having one long continuous party all night long for 20 years. Well, it's 6am, and the cleaning crew are here to get the hall back in shape. Those drunken Labor revellers who wish to keep partying are being forced out the door.

Enough is enough.....spending less than you earn must be mandatory, not optional.

How many billions per year in interest does the Qld Govt pay ?? And who receives it ??

The Qld credit card under Labor was maxed out. The Fed credit card under Labor is maxed out.

In fact, wherever Labor is in charge, the credit card bill is maxed out. They simply cannot manage an economy, nor finances, but then given their union background and union bosses, one could not realistically expect anything better.

The SMH article, like most they pump out, is shambolic. To mention Campbell Newman and not mention the $ 65 Billion Labor debt he inherited in an article criticising Newman for cleaning up the state is journalistically negligent.