Why didnt Peter Spann recommend Cash?

[crc_error]

I'm just wondering if anyone has been to Peter Spanns seminars in the last 12 months? If so why hasn't he recommended cash and fixed interest as the best investment going forward during this time?

Looking at my chart of the all ords, we can clearly see the market overshot its long term uptrending channel. When shares started to fall, we could clearly see that the economic clock was moving along into the cash cycle.

Now shouldn't so called 'experts' be able to make educated guesses and make smart recommendations accordingly?

Anyone with any nouse could see that the market ran too hard, and was due for a correction. Experts should still see from this information we are still in for further falls, or at best sideways trending before we resume a new bull run.

Yet I still haven't heard spann recommend cash.. he is still flogging funds, even though the outlook doesn't support his recommendation.

Prehaps if Peter is around, I would be happy to hear his response for his reasons not recommending fixed interest, and still continuing not to recommend managed funds in shares.

I also recall him saying later last year we were in for further gains, and the market would continue to overshoot, for another 1-2 years before his prediction of 'depression' comes in around 2012.

 

[ffc1883_1996]

Anyone with any nouse could see that the market ran too hard, and was due for a correction. Experts should still see from this information we are still in for further falls, or at best sideways trending before we resume a new bull run.

Yet I still haven't heard spann recommend cash.. he is still flogging funds, even though the outlook doesn't support his recommendation.

What are you talking about mate? How many investors and institutions do you know of that had enough “nouse” (and luck) to sell all assets for cash last November? Were you one of them? If so, perhaps you should be running seminars.

During 2008, many would argue (not just Spann) that there are buying opportunities out there for those that are holding cash – particularly if they can hold for the long term.

 

[Simon]

Perhaps it is because Peter doesn't rake in a commission from recommending cash?

A seminar I attended last year was little more than a sales pitch for his managed funds via his Freeman Fox Advisors.

 

[crc_error]

What are you talking about mate? How many investors and institutions do you know of that had enough “nouse” (and luck) to sell all assets for cash last November? Were you one of them? If so, perhaps you should be running seminars.

During 2008, many would argue (not just Spann) that there are buying opportunities out there for those that are holding cash – particularly if they can hold for the long term.

not many.. actually none, as managed fund mandates don't allow for the fund to be 100% cash..

Late last year I did look at the chart and thought to myself that the market had a un-natural run, and it looked like it would fall.. but I myself got caught up in all the excitment, and thought nothing could stop the market run..

but I'm not a expert getting paid $800,000 per year to manage peoples money. So I'm not the one who should have made those recommendations.

Someone getting paid such money should make sure their recommendations are correct.

Peter claims to be a 'manager of funds' so he should have his asset mix correct.. otherwise we may as well just invest in index funds and hope for the best..

Same with my property fund, it lost 50% of its value due to Centro crash.. why am I paying them a management fee? I myself could have thrown darts onto the wall and probably got a better result without the fee's.

 

[Aimjoy]

Someone getting paid such money should make sure their recommendations are correct.

crc_error, I'm not here supporting Mr Peter Spann, he's big enough to take care of himself.............but seriously mate this statement is kinda silly.

What you suggesting is we just get the highest paid guru out there and his predictions have to be right? If just paying someone $800K pa would be the answer then all our problems are solved.

They just have to call it as they see it. I think you might be suffering from 20/20 hindsight.

I feel your pain though - don't get me wrong. I'm just so glad I dilly-dallied around when I had made a decision to buy Centro and ABC Learning - but did not get around to it and "missed out" by a matter of a few weeks.

 

[crc_error]

So if these so called experts are simply 'guessing' then as far as i see it, its a waste of time listening to their advise..

Or maybe I could go out there, charge $800k PA and make wild guesses..

I think spann has made a few bad recommendations, including those macquarie equinox funds.. complete disaster, then come the property funds.. again disaster..

it seems to me his recommendations are nothing more than taxi talk, and should be treated as such.. pitty a taxi driver can't command $800k PA from his chit chat as well

 

[crc_error]

What are you talking about mate? How many investors and institutions do you know of that had enough “nouse” (and luck) to sell all assets for cash last November? Were you one of them? If so, perhaps you should be running seminars.

Maybe not Nov, but I did make this statement 3rd March http://www.invested.com.au/79/87-crash-here-31351/

Maybe you can come and pay me?

 

[ffc1883_1996]

Maybe not Nov, but I did make this statement 3rd March http://www.invested.com.au/79/87-crash-here-31351/

Maybe you can come and pay me?

Well in that case, why don’t you arrange a seminar and see who turns up? You’ll earn $800k!

The majority of attendees will consider your advice and then decide for themselves if it fits into their investing plans. Be warned, however, a handful of attendees will have nothing better to do than take pot shots at you on internet forums – regardless of your track record.

 

[crc_error]

eheheheh

Maybe I should give it a go!

 

[Mr. Fabulous]

The time to be building up cash was 1 - 3 years ago getting ready for the opportunities that have arisen in the last six months.

Mark

 

[Humphrey]

I believe (but stand to be corrected) that many funds have some type of mandate to keep their money in shares so they can't cash out even if they think it's the right thing to do. Obviously an index fund like Vanguard has to stay invested in the index.

I think that it's a non-brainer that Peter Spann would be recommending something that he earns a commissions from. Why would he say put your money in Cash when there's no benefit to him. Similar to all those Managed Fund salespeople out there - otherwise know as Financial Planners. Has anyone visited one lately - I'd be interested to hear what they are saying.

CRC, if you're wondering why you should pay for someone to make financial decisions for you, then I'd suggest you read "A Random Walk Down Wall Street". Ignore the index fund propaganda in the book but have a look at the historical success rates of Managed Funds based on numerous long-term studies. Other than Peter Lynch's Magellen Fund, none have consistently produced great returns over any reasonable period of time. So basically paying these fund managers is a waste of money.

EC

 

[Bill.L]

Hi all,

Firstly, I'm not a Peter Spann advocate/follower, in fact we have had one or two disagreements about investments to say the least.

Now, I find that I'm going to defend him again!!

Realistically CRC, what makes you think Peters take of the future is better than yours or mine?? The future is a guess, nothing more than adding up the probabilities and laying your bets. And yes, sometimes the lower odds events happen.

You can no more blame Peter for his recommendations than you can Warren Buffet for putting money into airlines many years ago.

Decisions are yours. If you want to believe someone else, more fool you.

Despite all the meltdowns going on, FXI has performed very well in the last 3 months, going from 55-60 cents up to ~75 cents.

bye

 

[Andrew_A]

...CRC, if you're wondering why you should pay for someone to make financial decisions for you, then I'd suggest you read "A Random Walk Down Wall Street". Ignore the index fund propaganda in the book but have a look at the historical success rates of Managed Funds based on numerous long-term studies. Other than Peter Lynch's Magellen Fund, none have consistently produced great returns over any reasonable period of time. So basically paying these fund managers is a waste of money.

EC

Ethann, how does 'index fund propaganda' not complement your main message?

 

[willair]

Yet I still haven't heard spann recommend cash.. he is still flogging funds, even though the outlook doesn't support his recommendation.

I had a listen to Mr Spann a few months ago at the Brisbane Big meeting
i just don't have the notes from that night with me but i think from memory he was talking about having cash on hand,and cutting back with
debt,but with investing in these times anyone that knows what next week is like is taking a big punt..imho..willair

 

[WinstonWolfe]

Realistically CRC, what makes you think Peters take of the future is better than yours or mine?? The future is a guess, nothing more than adding up the probabilities and laying your bets. And yes, sometimes the lower odds events happen.

Hi Bill, I am going to stand up for CRC.

Peter thinks he knows better. AND invites us to put our money where HIS mouth is. Why else would he mention investment product in his posts.

When Peter Spann comes onto Somersoft as a professional 'something' (as in he makes a living out of giving financial advice), and has the resources to research stuff us Joe Averages don't have the means or intellectual acumen to, then a lot of people are going to buy that (like a cheap plush toy)...especially when you have a lot of forumites who stand up for him cos he showed them the Light.

Peter knows he has a fan base here he can use as testimonial goodwill.
Peter uses the forum cos he knows it is a captive motivated audience, that at least if not forthcoming with money, he can play with to gauge market sentiment.

In short, Peter knows how to exploit forum culture.....to his advantage

 

[Bill.L]

Good points WW,

But if people can't see that there is self promotion when it slaps them in the face, then there is not much hope for them.

I also don't buy that their researchers are any better than you or I, though I know what you mean by people wanting to believe.

bye

 

[chilliaa]

Its amazing how when things are going right and people are making money for other people, then the masses hail them as geniuses. When losses occur then people start the blame game.

Its your money and your decision.

 

[WinstonWolfe]

Its your money and your decision.

Yes it's our decision.

Just as choosing to have a heart transplant would be my decision.
But that decision is based on the information I can access.
I presume a heart surgeon has greater access to heart surgery info than moi.
Therefore I take his advice.

Why can't I presume a financial advisor/professional has greater access to financial information than I?

Why is it, that in a complicated post industrial economy, the consumer has to become an expert in everything before they can trust someone who calls themselves a professional, or advisor?

Do I have to be an expert in
dentistry before choosing to get a root canal?
teaching before choosing a school for my kids?
medicine before taking a new pharmaceutical?
banking before trusting my money to them?
civil engineering before driving across the Brisbane Gateway Bridge?

 

[BoatBoy]

Perhaps it is because Peter doesn't rake in a commission from recommending cash?

A seminar I attended last year was little more than a sales pitch for his managed funds via his Freeman Fox Advisors.

say it aint so

 

[chilliaa]

Yes it's our decision.

Just as choosing to have a heart transplant would be my decision.
But that decision is based on the information I can access.
I presume a heart surgeon has greater access to heart surgery info than moi.
Therefore I take his advice.

Why can't I presume a financial advisor/professional has greater access to financial information than I?because the underlying issue has very little to do with financial information. The only truely financial information thats really valuable is inside information. The rest is how you USE publicly available information and thats open to interpretation. Just look at all the debates here on Somersoft

Why is it, that in a complicated post industrial economy, the consumer has to become an expert in everything before they can trust someone who calls themselves a professional, or advisor? Because you are trying to get out performance. If you want the easy and steady road put 30 % property, 30% cash, 30% property. As they move around rebalance once a year.

Do I have to be an expert in
dentistry before choosing to get a root canal?
teaching before choosing a school for my kids?
medicine before taking a new pharmaceutical?
banking before trusting my money to them?
civil engineering before driving across the Brisbane Gateway Bridge?

no because those areas are more exact sciences. A+B pretty much equals C