Will Australia's next property boom be the greatest boom we've ever seen?

[steveadl]

You should come over here to the GHPC Forum to help me out. I have been having this debate with those guys for a couple of days, but it's only one of me against 20 of them!

Any other Somersofters want to help me out...

Jeez Shadow, just had a quick scan through one of those threads. I can't believe your patience, why do you bother?! Seems to be a waste of breath.

You can make a simple statement or point of view and they'll shout you to death (whilst never swaying from their view point no matter how many valid points you make).

You say something like this: “Generally speaking, tree leaves are green”

And you get a list of responses like:

"No they’re not, there are so many different colours!!"

"Your opinion is wrong, you said ALL tree leaves are green!"

"You have a vested interest in trees or the colour green! Why should we believe you?"

"The press knows that tree leaves aren’t always green, but they are biased so don’t publicize it except for a few brave journalists!"

"Nursery experts and Don Burke have a vested interest in you buying trees, so they’re not going to tell you the truth!"

"You’re trying to keep people from learning the truth about tree colours, I’ve taken pictures of trees with yellow leaves!"

"Anyone who buys trees at the moment needs their head read!"

"You obviously have a number of trees yourself and don't want anyone else to have their own so they need to look at your trees instead!"

How the hell do you argue with that sort of response?!

 

[MickInvestor]

Jeez Shadow, just had a quick scan through one of those threads. I can't believe your patience, why do you bother?! Seems to be a waste of breath.

You can make a simple statement or point of view and they'll shout you to death (whilst never swaying from their view point no matter how many valid points you make).

You say something like this: “Generally speaking, tree leaves are green”

And you get a list of responses like:

"No they’re not, there are so many different colours!!"

"Your opinion is wrong, you said ALL tree leaves are green!"

"You have a vested interest in trees or the colour green! Why should we believe you?"

"The press knows that tree leaves aren’t always green, but they are biased so don’t publicize it except for a few brave journalists!"

"Nursery experts and Don Burke have a vested interest in you buying trees, so they’re not going to tell you the truth!"

"You’re trying to keep people from learning the truth about tree colours, I’ve taken pictures of trees with yellow leaves!"

"Anyone who buys trees at the moment needs their head read!"

"You obviously have a number of trees yourself and don't want anyone else to have their own so they need to look at your trees instead!"

How the hell do you argue with that sort of response?!

Steve you are wrong because not ALL people say things like that (sorry I couldn't resist)

 

[Harris]

Whilst I can write paragraphs about this argument, I am not going to do it. It is simply useless rhetoric, becomes repititive, goes around in circles and doesnt yield to anything.

You say things, then ask others to comment on it, then disect each statement in post after post, then contradict your own statement or keep on asking for comments which becomes a useless exercise ! obviously you might think differently.

If its god's will to cause recession or save people from recession based on their own set of beliefs, then leave it for god to decide for you, why bother with analysis paralysis. I believe its juvenile to debate an argument till death and at the end use god as an excuse to show mercy on "believing people" by saving them from a financial downturn..!

I think if this is the argument, then surely America and Malaysia should never had gone into recession with 70% and 65% people believing in God in those countries respectively (according to their census) and significantly less in Australia.

*****************
Dear Harris,

1. You have inferred and make your own invalid sweeping "conclusions" for yourself, which I did not say in my previous post;- though the level of human greed in a particular society has been used and put forward to be one of the fundamental key factors used to explain the different levels of housing boom/bust in the various countries.

2. Among the many theories that were previously offered to me as to why the Australian housing markets are fundamentally different from other Asian housing markets, was that, in general, Australians are not as "greedy" as their Asian counterparts ( or/and their American counterparts? for that matter).

3. Thus, the Australians are less likely to drive up the local housing markets to the same "un-realistically" high levels as their Asian ( and American?) counterparts, such as those have been reported in the various housing markets in Asia.

4. Consequently, this has resulted in a deeper and prolonged housing busts in Asia subsequently, as compared to those that have previously occurred in Australia, to date.

5. While I believe that this observation may be true to a certain extent, it has still not adequately explained why Australia has yet to experience its own "biggest" historical housing boom/bust on record, at this point in time.

6. Not has it adequately explained why Australia was/is such a "lucky" country so as to be able to continually enjoy its prolonged economic prosperity for the last 16 years.

7. Do you have a better argument to adequately explain Australia's present unique economic achievement, to date?


Cheers,
Kenneth KOH

 

[steveadl]

Steve you are wrong because not ALL people say things like that (sorry I couldn't resist)

Touche Mick!

 

[blaster]

You have to cut and paste the quote tags to the bits you want to quote separately ... like this ....

Thanks yieldmatters l'll have to give it a go.

Cheers

 

[Shadow]

Jeez Shadow, just had a quick scan through one of those threads. I can't believe your patience, why do you bother?! Seems to be a waste of breath.

You can make a simple statement or point of view and they'll shout you to death (whilst never swaying from their view point no matter how many valid points you make).

You say something like this: “Generally speaking, tree leaves are green”

And you get a list of responses like:

"No they’re not, there are so many different colours!!"

"Your opinion is wrong, you said ALL tree leaves are green!"

"You have a vested interest in trees or the colour green! Why should we believe you?"

"The press knows that tree leaves aren’t always green, but they are biased so don’t publicize it except for a few brave journalists!"

"Nursery experts and Don Burke have a vested interest in you buying trees, so they’re not going to tell you the truth!"

"You’re trying to keep people from learning the truth about tree colours, I’ve taken pictures of trees with yellow leaves!"

"Anyone who buys trees at the moment needs their head read!"

"You obviously have a number of trees yourself and don't want anyone else to have their own so they need to look at your trees instead!"

How the hell do you argue with that sort of response?!

LMAO... that was very funny. Do you mind if I copy your post over there on GHPC? That is one of the funniest things I have read for a while!

Also, here is a link to our latest thread... I think I may be getting somewhere with this one...



Cheers,

Shadow.

 

[steveadl]

LMAO... that was very funny. Do you mind if I copy your post over there on GHPC? That is one of the funniest things I have read for a while!

Cheers,

Shadow.

Yeah go for it mate, God knows I won't be posting there any time soon!

 

[Shadow]

Sydney - strongest signs of recovery...

http://www.smh.com.au/news/national...cho-of-the-boom/2008/01/08/1199554655589.html

SYDNEY'S home building market has shown its strongest signs of recovery since the end of the housing boom...

 

[yieldmatters]

Jeez Shadow, just had a quick scan through one of those threads. I can't believe your patience, why do you bother?! Seems to be a waste of breath.

You can make a simple statement or point of view and they'll shout you to death (whilst never swaying from their view point no matter how many valid points you make).

I had much the same experience when I came to SS for the first time. It was educational though - I had fun - but didn't swing anybody.

 

[devo76]

I am a member of GHPC but have not posted as i find the overly negative aproach has poisoned there thinking. One point they keep pushing i actually agree with to a certain extent.

From a financial point of view the returns do not make any property purchase worth while.This would be true if ALL AUSTRALIANS were well trained and savy investers.
with thinking like GHPC

But the reason it does not make sense is the majority of the population are like sheep.When things get bad we sell sell sell and usually at a lose. When things get good we buy buy buy normally after the price has moved.The majority of australians will ALWAYS believe that property will go up. Even after a slump. We have short memories. Prices rise a bit because good times are back and all the buyers jump in because they are afraid to miss out.Investers are in this mix to only hopefully there timing and property selection is a bit better.This is why i believe property boom periods will be around forever. If we all thought like GHPC then sure, investing would be dead. But they are the minority and the rich will continue to get richer off the old predictable sheep of australia.

 

[Shadow]

Reserve Bank Data

http://www.rba.gov.au/PublicationsAndResea...netary_1107.pdf

'The shortfall in housing
construction can be seen in the
rental market, where the vacancy
rate remains around its historical
lows (Graph 42). An exceptionally
tight rental market has contributed
to rapid growth in rents across all
capital cities'

'Recently updated
estimates based on data from the
2006 Census suggest that underlying
demand due to demographic factors
is around 180 000 dwellings per year,
whereas only around 150 000 new
dwellings were commenced over
the past year. The weakness in new
housing construction has been
most pronounced in New South
Wales, which has recorded its
lowest annual number of private
dwelling commencements since
1987.'

'In Sydney, prices
in the most expensive suburbs have
risen by around 10 per cent over the
past year, while those in the least
expensive suburbs appear to have
levelled out after several years of
declines. These patterns have been
consistent with strength in the Sydney
and Melbourne auction markets'

 

[VYBerlinaV8]

From a financial point of view the returns do not make any property purchase worth while.This would be true if ALL AUSTRALIANS were well trained and savy investers.
with thinking like GHPC

The thing that many people don't understand is that when you invest in property you are not buying the market as a whole, but rather an individual deal that will often behave differently to the wider market. I personally like properties that generate a yield sufficient to cover the costs of ownership (including interest) after tax, meaning that the asset effectively costs nothing to hold. As such, any capital gains are a bonus, as I get to own and control the asset either way.

There are certainly worthwhile property investments out there, as well as plenty of properties that don't make sense as investments. Knowing the difference is what it's all about.

 

[VYBerlinaV8]

I had much the same experience when I came to SS for the first time. It was educational though - I had fun - but didn't swing anybody.

You may not have swung anybody, but you certainly got some well articulated responses, some of which helped me clarify things in my own mind. I for one am glad you stayed.

 

[DavidMc]

You may not have swung anybody, but you certainly got some well articulated responses, some of which helped me clarify things in my own mind. I for one am glad you stayed.

Same here.

 

[alexlee]

You may not have swung anybody, but you certainly got some well articulated responses, some of which helped me clarify things in my own mind. I for one am glad you stayed.

And you have to admit, YM, we're starting to turn YOU on how property CAN (under certain circumstances, and you're more strict about this than I am) keep rising. (Namely, suburb creep, redevelopment and a decrease in property size).

I've certainly sharpened my thinking from debating with you.
Alex

 

[FHB]

I am a member of GHPC but have not posted as i find the overly negative aproach has poisoned there thinking. One point they keep pushing i actually agree with to a certain extent.

Hi devo, you should post, not all on GHPC have the same view of the future for property.

I don't see a crash coming, and for the main reason (a little bit different to yours, but along the same lines), that people won't sell property when it isn't doing well.

I think the majority of the population will hold onto their properties no matter what, even if it means living on baked beans, and selling the car. Prices are downside sticky. But what they can't control is holding costs and incomes (ie interest rates and employment).

As far as another boom goes, despite demand and supply, unless people can find ways to pay more, prices won't boom to the same extent as they did last time. We don't have the same headroom in these supporting factors, IMO.

 

[natedog]

Hey natedog.
Look if l can quote a whole post believe me anyone can . !

yay

But it is pretty swoosh the way people pick bits out isn't it - can't do that one either !!

i can do it

 

[devo76]

Hi devo, you should post, not all on GHPC have the same view of the future for property.

I don't see a crash coming, and for the main reason (a little bit different to yours, but along the same lines), that people won't sell property when it isn't doing well.

I think the majority of the population will hold onto their properties no matter what, even if it means living on baked beans, and selling the car. Prices are downside sticky. But what they can't control is holding costs and incomes (ie interest rates and employment).

As far as another boom goes, despite demand and supply, unless people can find ways to pay more, prices won't boom to the same extent as they did last time. We don't have the same headroom in these supporting factors, IMO.

Your right i shouldnt pigeon hole all GHPC members like that but i still feel they have one view and will not be swayed otherwise. I still feel the sheep mentality of many of us is what makes the rich richer.When prices are through the roof. The rich are sitting tight or selling. When prices drop and many average joe,s have to sell. The rich are there to buy. This cycle has been going for many years and i cant see any reason for it changing. If things get bad,people will be forced to sell and cashed up people will be there to buy. When the bad times are over. Aussies everywhere will be dreaming of riches and early retirement so they will jump on the investing train again and of we go again.
Actually the more i think of a down market dragging on a bit it will actually suit me. My servicability will easily take on a few more properties and i wish to buy 1 per year. So if the market is down for 5 years thats 5 properties i will have at pre boom prices. That sounds alright to me.

 

[Shadow]

Shadow - loved your little write up on Newport. I loved my IP up here so much I moved into it! I live in poor man's Newport but it still only takes 8 minutes to walk to the beach and I look at the ocean every morning from my dining table over breakfast! All this for sub $1mm. Still can't believe the value.

If this is my "express elevator to hell", I sure am going to enjoy it.

Hi Oscar,

Glad you're enjoying Newport. It really is a hidden gem. So undervalued for such a great beach-side suburb, and with all the new development going on prices are going to go through the roof in a few years, after the village redevelopment is finished and the new Coles is built.

Have you tried the clifftop walk from Newport to Bilgola? Stunning views.

And the walk from Bilgola to Avalon along the Serpentine Road is even better!

Cheers,

Shadow.

 

[Shadow]

Hi devo, you should post, not all on GHPC have the same view of the future for property.

I agree, I'm actually quite enjoying being on GHPC at the moment. It is quite refreshing to have ones view challenged. It forces me to do more research and refine my strategy and ideas better. I'm learning quite a lot over there, so I would also encourage everyone to give it a try.

Hey, if we can accommodate some of their bears over here, it's only fair that we should send them a few of our bulls in exchange!

Cheers,

Shadow.