Will Interest rates to nudge double digits in next 2 years?

[boz]

I don't agree with John Edwards on everything, but I think he lays out the reasons well for lower rates later this year.

Keep in mind if European problems get worse, or China cuts exports significantly, Aussie rates might go down, but banks may not have enough cash to lend (because they are heavily reliant on foreign borrowings). So even though there might be a pull back in house prices, you won't necessarily get a loan without a big deposit and stable income.

Personally I put the Probability of rates going above 8.5% in the next 5 years at less than 5%.

And here's a chart of what the professionals' predictions are for the Aussie cash rate for the last 18mths.... note May21, the latest prediction, allows for rates to decrease this year.

thanks for updating the chart ww,
as I said in another thread the rates forecast are flat or even decreasing.
You should stop to plot the line at march 2011 because there is no data past that point on may 21 (no contract where exchanged, that would mean buyer and seller didn't meet on the pricing). So, for example there was contract exchange on may 21 for march 2011 date but for april 2011 last one was at beginning of last week on the 17th (where markets where at very different point), then you get to the sept 2011 contract that show the last exchange as far as the 14th of may. so the the most liquid and more reflection of market expectation are the one for months not far ahead

 

[kum yin lau]

Hi Paul, you need to get actual contracted price. Pass ins don't mean prices up or down. It can also mean no sale.

My sister sold her townhouse in S Yarra in 00. The agent passed it in well after the reserve price so that he could negotiate another ten thousand. FYI, the purchase price in 99 was 330 thousand, sale price in 2000 was 480 thousand.

I bet you my sister didn't believe the price of that townhouse could go up anymore & prices did actually go down after that sale but today, that same townhouse should be in the 600 thousand category.

KY

 

[urbanprospector]

Hi Paul, you need to get actual contracted price. Pass ins don't mean prices up or down. It can also mean no sale.

My sister sold her townhouse in S Yarra in 00. The agent passed it in well after the reserve price so that he could negotiate another ten thousand. FYI, the purchase price in 99 was 330 thousand, sale price in 2000 was 480 thousand.

I bet you my sister didn't believe the price of that townhouse could go up anymore & prices did actually go down after that sale but today, that same townhouse should be in the 600 thousand category.

KY

actual sale (mine) perth ,,, scarborough beach sold 2008 545k .. sold feb 2010 455k so what things should be worth and what people will pay another story

 

[urbanprospector]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a6U3ahYcq2pw&pos=1

here is more of that yawning inflation

notice they try to make out its ok as was a bees willy less than forcast lol makes it look ok hey