will the melbourne market crash soon?

We all know the melbourne market is very pricey, definately a 'hot market'

Another crystal ball question, but would be interesting to see everyone thoughts. The majority of people i speak to say you say interest rate rises will halt market, everyone seems to have a theory.

What do you think? will the market increase slowly, crash, halt?

Thanks in advance
 
I think we are starting to see the Melbourne market cool a little bit. I don't expect to see a crash, however with interest rates rising and the potential of China's growth slowing down, I think the market will stay about the same.

Rent's need to catch up to the prices.
 
I'll go for option 4 (decrease slowly). IMO, with interest rates on the way back up, China, and PIGS, I think that prices may at least come back to pre-increased FHOG price ranges.
 
I think that prices may at least come back to pre-increased FHOG price ranges.
That much correction?
Over what length of time?
Interest rates are not going to get as high as last time anytime soon so IMO there won't be much downwards pressure on prices
 
That much correction?
Over what length of time?

I think over the next 2 years through to 2012. The feel-good atmosphere was fed for a long time by stimulus. That won't last.
I also wouldn't be surprised at all if Ruddy reversed the Foreign Ownership property laws before the election to wins some more votes from the more Labor voting types.
 
2012 ? end of the world ? anyone prepared for it ? Gold bar ????

I think over the next 2 years through to 2012. The feel-good atmosphere was fed for a long time by stimulus. That won't last.
I also wouldn't be surprised at all if Ruddy reversed the Foreign Ownership property laws before the election to wins some more votes from the more Labor voting types.
 
No decrease, certainly no pre-FHOG prices - that is fantasy land IMO.

For clarification, I'm not saying pre-FHOG prices (back to the 1990's), I'm saying pre-increased FHOG prices (2008). So say the last 1.5yrs of gains reversed over the next 2yrs. IMO ;-)
 
Another vote for a continuing steady rise in prices. No decrease, certainly no pre-FHOG prices - that is fantasy land IMO.
I'll second that vote!! ;)

Melbourne will just keep clawing its way upward with little spikes here and there (albeit nothing earth shattering) until interest rates hit double figures, at which time we may start to see the market level out a tad, maybe even dip a notch or two but I certainly don't believe there'll be any crash landings (for a while yet)!!
 
Almost certainly won't crash, and prices won't drop to pre FHOG increase prices (18 months ago).

I'd say prices will continue to increase for a while, then there'll be a few years of little movement. Some areas will continue to increase, some will decrease a little, but most will simply be stagnant for a few years.
 
since rates have another 100 points to go up this year, I would say melbourne will drop in 12 months time. it wont crash, but will be negative.

I wouldnt be buying now, but will wait for a buyers market in 12 months.
 
Maybe the current rise has another 6 months in it, not sure. I think we are going to seee a few years stagnation perhaps after that. I think it will take more than rising interest rates to see a big drop. Probably would need a change of tune of FIRB, crash in China's economy, stock market bear market, several of those type of events-unlikely in my view.
 
A crash is definitely around the corner. I'm starting to think about liquidating it all. When all is greedy, fear, fear a lot. One economic shock and we'll all be wiped out.
 
No crash now, just tread carefully. I'm increasing my exposure but at a lower LVR.

Based on my research, we may be following Asia's 18 year property cycle. 1997 was the previous downturn. 2015 maybe for us too seeing the UK/US led downturn didn't really effect us.
 
A crash is definitely around the corner. I'm starting to think about liquidating it all. When all is greedy, fear, fear a lot. One economic shock and we'll all be wiped out.

Deltaberry, why do you want to sell and get out of the market? Are you not in it for the long haul? I would suggest rather re-finance and put the extra cash into an offset account. This way if there is a crash you still have enough cash sitting around to take advantage.

Just my 2 cents.

Cheers,
Oracle.
 
Deltaberry, why do you want to sell and get out of the market? Are you not in it for the long haul? I would suggest rather re-finance and put the extra cash into an offset account. This way if there is a crash you still have enough cash sitting around to take advantage.

If Deltaberry thinks the market will crash, and wants to position him/herself for that, refinancing to take cash out won't help. Unlocking equity and placing it into an offset account doesn't lock in the house value. It would be pointless. :rolleyes:
 
I have no idea. Anywhere between -15% and +30% is within the realm of possibility.

People said prices would drop due to high interest rates 18-36 months ago (late 2007->). Instead prices kept rising until a completely unexpected and unrelated financial crisis from other countries impacted the employment market.

So there was a dip, but it wasn't due to the expected factor.

All I know is that Melbourne is closing in on 4 million people, most of whom would like to live in zone 1 where there is only space for about 1 million of them.

Increased housing built at the edge of town doesn't diminish the demand for land in closer.
 
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