will the melbourne market crash soon?

Another vote for a continuing steady rise in prices. No decrease, certainly no pre-FHOG prices - that is fantasy land IMO.

Agree - the gfc is over (according to the imf) so why would Melbourne stagnate when the rest of the world is looking at a new era of growth. Melbourne might just be the leader of the pack. I still dont get it though - why its booming compared to other states.
 
Doubt there will be a crash anytime soon given the large gulf between the undersupply of housing and the demand from potential buyers. Rising interest rates may halt many of the first home buyers but investors, upgraders and overseas buyers are out there in force.

Interesting that COAG has just announced a review into the factors that are causing high property prices (see today's The Age newspaper). Negative gearing and CGT aren't explicitly mentioned but I wonder if they will be included in the review of "Federal and state taxation settings"...
 
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If Deltaberry thinks the market will crash, and wants to position him/herself for that, refinancing to take cash out won't help. Unlocking equity and placing it into an offset account doesn't lock in the house value. It would be pointless. :rolleyes:

Hi Oscar
good point. Also if you are lo doc this strategy will not work as I am finding majority of lenders will not allow access to equity... sign of the times.

Cheers, MTR
 
Agree - the gfc is over (according to the imf) so why would Melbourne stagnate when the rest of the world is looking at a new era of growth. Melbourne might just be the leader of the pack. I still dont get it though - why its booming compared to other states.

There are pockets in Syd which are booming and have for the last six months. There are also signs of market starting to rise in central coast and other areas. Propertyunity should be able to confirm this.

I don't believe there will a crash, I am bullish, and will continue to accummulate property which I have been doing over the last couple of years and don't see any reason to stop. What do they say "the trend is your friend". Brisbane will be on my agenda shortly.

Cheers, MTR
 
There's so many conflicting opinions in here... so confusing! :confused:

Imho I don't see much happening without policy changes but I haven't the faintest. While there's demand and a supposed shortage, house prices won't go down. Aside from policy, I could only see the exit of foreign investors as a potential impact on house prices.

Now that's purely my opinion. Should I be worried? I have 1 IP in Frankston North. I'd have thought this would only go up with Peninsula Link and the marina coming in - ripple effect etc. Could this potentially go down if there's a crash? That's probably too open ended... would it be likely or unlikely it would go down? I'd appreciate an explanation of what usually happens to outer suburbs when the market crashes if anyone has the time. I'm obviously still on L-plates with regards to IPs and market trends.
 
If Deltaberry thinks the market will crash, and wants to position him/herself for that, refinancing to take cash out won't help. Unlocking equity and placing it into an offset account doesn't lock in the house value. It would be pointless. :rolleyes:

Yea refinancing doesn't help yea? Having that cash just means I can gear up more. If prices fall then by gearing up more my debt will be bigger than the value of the houses?
 
Instead prices kept rising until a completely unexpected and unrelated financial crisis from other countries impacted the employment market.

A lot of people knew subprime was coming in 2007. I was in Hong Kong at a leture with an American debt securitisation visiting professor and he was telling us subprime was going to take America down. I knew about subprime May 07 already and liquidated.

I remember on another stock forum and one of the long-term posters brought up subprime in early 2007 and pointed out subprime too. Just need to be alert.
 
Agree - the gfc is over (according to the imf) so why would Melbourne stagnate when the rest of the world is looking at a new era of growth. Melbourne might just be the leader of the pack. I still dont get it though - why its booming compared to other states.

Cmon you're an investment banker and look at this stuff all the time yea (or was it derivatives trader)? You should be telling me why ... or perhaps there is no reason why? That's why I'm concerned.

Do you believe in the China bubble?
 
I think it's really hard to say, all of these 'possibilites' have evidence to say they MAY happen...but how do we know which???

I think it will vary between suburbs/locations though. Over the past 6 months with interest rate rises the suburbs I have been looking in have increasing on a weekly basis. We bought 2 months and paid 603k, a comparable house a few streets away sold last weekend for 758k :eek:
 
Delta - you seem to be questioning my credentials - the offer still holds 1,000 bucks on the table.

Not questioning your credentials. Am asking you a question because I forgot if you're an M&A banker, an ECM executioner or a trader? Secondly, was asking your opinion since it's always good to see what the vibe at different tier-1 investment banks are across different divisions. Can tell you at my place everyone thinks market is about to tank.

In the last few auctions I attended, prices are cooling. Competition is not as heated, just a lot of people inspecting. There's only 1-2 people bidding, and prices are just a tad above reserev (maybe ~4-5%)? At the very least market has lost momentum
 
Yea refinancing doesn't help yea? Having that cash just means I can gear up more. If prices fall then by gearing up more my debt will be bigger than the value of the houses?

You don't have to buy property with the borrowed funds.. you could put it in shares/funds or into something else you think will increase more than the interest rate you're paying.
 
Delta - Most investment bankers i know dont invest outside of their jobs. They may own a mortgage.

They think earning big bucks is the road to personal wealth. I know many in their 30's and 40's who have virtually no assets just big incomes and big lifestyles to boot.

So dont take my word for anything. I was quoting the IMF. They are as good a guesses as anyone else!
 
Delta - Most investment bankers i know dont invest outside of their jobs. They may own a mortgage.

They think earning big bucks is the road to personal wealth. I know many in their 30's and 40's who have virtually no assets just big incomes and big lifestyles to boot.

So dont take my word for anything. I was quoting the IMF. They are as good a guesses as anyone else!

Well I must say my experience has been 50:50. Also know plenty of bankers with several properties and debt to their eyeballs
 
If Deltaberry thinks the market will crash, and wants to position him/herself for that, refinancing to take cash out won't help. Unlocking equity and placing it into an offset account doesn't lock in the house value. It would be pointless. :rolleyes:

Yes, if the market crashes the price of his properties will also go down, no doubt about it. The point I am trying make is if he/she is in it for the long haul and believed in the fundamental soundness of asset class, then prices would ultimately recover in few years time and would go even higher then what they are today. Atleast, the money sitting in the offset account can be used by him for other asset purchases as long as he/she continue to have the serviceability.

What happens when you sell out and the price crash never happens? All you have done is paid the ATO chunk of your profits just to see the price of the asset you sold recover and reach new highs in few years time.

If time is on your side (as in you have atleast 10-15 years of investing left before you intend on retiring) I would never sell any quality assets (that have performed well in the past) no matter how high the price goes.

It's just my personal preference. Deltaberry, obviously has his/her own opinions and is free to do whatever he/she wants.

Cheers,
Oracle.
 
My plan is actually to retire before 28, but that's looking less likely. Might have to push it out to 30. So I might not have that 10-15 years before retirement
 
My plan is actually to retire before 28, but that's looking less likely. Might have to push it out to 30. So I might not have that 10-15 years before retirement

Good luck Deltaberry! If you manage to retire by the age of 30 there would be many of us eager to learn a thing or two from you. By the way if you don't mind me asking how many years to go before you turn 30?

Cheers,
Oracle.
 
What i read from that article is that yes Aussie house prices are booming. Full stop. The imf go on to say that Australia is the best placed nation in the world to ride the upside of the post GFC merry go round. All aboard!

High prices = Bubble: seems to be the latest pseudo economic jargon.
 
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