Will the Sydney median house price reach $1 million by the end of 2015?

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by Shadow, 4th Sep, 2014.

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Will the Sydney median house price reach $1 million by the end of 2015?

  1. Yes

    48 vote(s)
    38.4%
  2. No

    77 vote(s)
    61.6%
  1. Shadow

    Shadow Evil Specufestor

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    The Sydney median house price hit $840K in July as measured by the Residex index.

    That's an increase of $130K in just a year.

    Sydney house prices are now up nearly 30% since 2012 and up 53% since 2009.

    Only another 19% growth is needed to hit $1 million.

    With 18 months to go (from July), will the Sydney median house price hit one million dollars by the end of 2015, as measured by the Residex index?

    [​IMG]
     
    luce.rocks likes this.
  2. redwing

    redwing Progress Not Perfection

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    19% on top of whats already happened is a lot?

    There would be many individual areas where the median is already over $1M in Sydney though wouldn't there
     
  3. Shadow

    Shadow Evil Specufestor

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    The momentum is there. Auction clearance rates are back above 80%. There's no sign of it slowing down. Only 1% growth per month is needed to get to $1M by late 2015.

    I don't know if we'll actually hit the $1M mark by the end of 2015, but we'll certainly approach very close to it.

    I can't see it slowing down much until the RBA lifts interest rates a few times.

    There were 163 suburbs with a median price above $1M in 2013. It would probably be closer to 200 now...

    http://smh.domain.com.au/real-estat...new-milliondollar-suburbs-20140124-31e9a.html

    [​IMG]
     
  4. see_change

    see_change Apprentice Timing Lord

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    I might have voted maybe , but I think 19 % in that time is pushing it .

    I think 930 - 960

    I would have for yes for 2016

    Cliff
     
  5. belvoir

    belvoir Member

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    Out of curiosity besides the previous growth being a precursor for future growth, what is going to drive the median price across all of Sydney further higher?

    I understand some pockets doing well but will the city as a whole rise?
     
  6. see_change

    see_change Apprentice Timing Lord

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    As one area increases , people move to adjacent areas looking for better value

    People buying on the north shore have been coming from inner west , Epping Eastwood etc as those areas went crazy and people came to the north shore looking for " better value "

    Mt Druitt goes up and people think why pay 300 in mt Druitt when I can buy in XYZ for 350 .

    Cliff
     
  7. belvoir

    belvoir Member

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    That is correct to a degree, but if the top end does not grow a bunch of middle suburbs cannot push the median above the $1,000,000 mark. It would effect the average but not the median.

    Again whats going to push those properties that have just gone from $900,000 - $1,200,000 to a further $1,500,000 in 2015?
     
  8. see_change

    see_change Apprentice Timing Lord

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    Actually that's exactly how it works . Things cycle round

    If a whole pile of mid range suburbs push up to 1.2 and people see that the nearby more expensive market hasn't moved , people will see better value in the more expensive suburb and buy there .

    Why buy in the hills for 1.2 if you can get into the north shore for 1.5 .( not saying those figures are correct ) .

    People who want to buy in the hills for 1.2 , face competition and prices go up .

    If there is no competition , prices don't go up . It's basic supply and demand .

    Cliff
     
  9. belvoir

    belvoir Member

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    In the last cycle we boomed in 2003 with prices staying stagnate until after the GFC when Rudd stimulated and there were low interest rates.

    I think Sydney is heading close to that stagnate stage. The problem this time though is that economically were are in a worse position and holding onto loss making assets won't be fun for many if there is no prospect of price rises. If unemployment rises there could be a run on property as people liquidate for the fear of being the one that held onto the property as prices fell.
     
  10. skater

    skater Capitalist

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    Of course, you're entitled to your opinion, but I think we've got a way to go yet. Standing room only at opens & offers in excess of ask price means there's a heap of people out there pushing the prices up, up, up.:D
     
  11. see_change

    see_change Apprentice Timing Lord

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    Where we differ is that I think we're only at the beginning of the economic recovery . It's been slow and unsteady . China is a concern , but the US has taken its medicine and is bouncing back .

    Cliff
     
    Last edited: 4th Sep, 2014
  12. belvoir

    belvoir Member

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    I don't see how the US "bouncing back" is going to help Australia in any meaningful way.

    Western Australia is going backwards, Ford/Holden closing down + all associated businesses are closing down which will wreck havoc in Victoria/SA in 2016+ and NSW besides finance has nothing going for it. These are all structural issues that are not being addressed.

    I don't understand where the economic recovery is beginning in this country....
     
  13. see_change

    see_change Apprentice Timing Lord

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    Mill

    So you obviously didn't vote for prices going over 1 mill by end of next year .:D

    Neither did I . :eek:

    Cliff
     
  14. hobo-jo

    hobo-jo Not a bear just a realist

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    Neither do I, anyone seeing economic recovery with current stats has their permabull glasses on.

    Unemployment trending higher.
    Job adverts & vacancies bounced a little from lows, but still depressed.
    Services & manufacturing PMIs in the gutter.
    Mining investment slowing (largest contributor to GDP growth in recent years)

    And as Belvoir points out, there is potentially more pain to come.

    Construction is the only positive economic indicator I've seen recently...

    see_change, where are you seeing this economic recovery?
     
  15. see_change

    see_change Apprentice Timing Lord

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    Everyone's entitled to their own opinion and IMHO , whatever I say won't change yours .

    Time will tell who is right , not a circular debate here :)

    Cliff
     
  16. willair

    willair xx

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    This is what I can't understand you fly into Sydney and depending on which way you fly in it's a vast area from the air,so with the logic of any fractal distribution if ones wealth doubles from 500k to one mill then the number I mill goes into 2 mill over time it makes the making of such large sums conceivable,what we are seeing is based on supply and demand low rates
    media control and the thought of missing the boat,happened before like this,,Brisbane at one stage of the last cycle prior 2008 was going up 10k per month but that was not Logan only some inner city hotspots,then it went nowhere for several years..imho..
     
  17. see_change

    see_change Apprentice Timing Lord

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  18. XMW

    XMW Member

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    It appears lots of people here on this forum have bullish view on the Sydney market by reading these posts.

    Not sure how many of those with bullish view are still buying in current Sydney market. If they are still buying / intend to buy in the next few months, then marketing may still have some upside. If not, then it's just talking...
     
  19. see_change

    see_change Apprentice Timing Lord

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    :D
    I 'm maxed out on Sydney due to land tax . I dont like paying it .

    Most of the long term members who bought in Sydney stopped buying a while ago . We're just sitting and watching and talking .

    Property investing isn't a gung hoe roller coaster ride like share trading . More time to relax and talk : ) and window shop eg

    I still look . If I was looking for the perfect place to build in turramurra I think this place looks great . East side , walk station and turramurra music

    21 meter wide frontage , high side street , gentle slope to the road , in a street that is in the process of changing and will move up market in the next ten years . Some nice neighbours as well ;) ( I have no interest in the house , just the street )

    A smaller block sold down the road for 1.26 about a month ago . I'd expect this to go for over 1.5 . Probably end with a Meadowbank and be worth in high 2's

    Cliff
     
  20. redwing

    redwing Progress Not Perfection

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    According to this in February 2014 there were 167

    Also of note

    There are apparently now 417 suburbs "Australia-wide" where you'll need a million dollars for a property.

    It’s a jump of more than 100 suburbs in single year, according to RP Data