Will the Sydney median house price reach $1 million by the end of 2015?

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by Shadow, 4th Sep, 2014.

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Will the Sydney median house price reach $1 million by the end of 2015?

  1. Yes

    48 vote(s)
    38.4%
  2. No

    77 vote(s)
    61.6%
  1. Deltaberry

    Deltaberry Member

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    Has anyone started shorting bonds yet? If not stop telling me about rate rises because you obivously don't believe it enough.
     
  2. Shadow

    Shadow Evil Specufestor

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  3. sanj

    sanj Member

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  4. Shadow

    Shadow Evil Specufestor

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    Yes, that's houses only. Residex puts the median unit price at $629K.

    Residex don't publish a combined 'all dwellings' median, but RP Data says the median dwelling price is $733K.
     
  5. Shadow

    Shadow Evil Specufestor

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    Poll Results: Will the Sydney median house price reach $1 million by the end of 2015?
    Yes 48 38.40%
    No 77 61.60%


    Would anyone who voted 'no' be tempted to change their view yet?

    (the Sydney median house price has already increased by $105K in nine months since I started this thread)
     
  6. see_change

    see_change Apprentice Timing Lord

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    I think I voted no , but would have for 2016 .

    Still eight months to go . Line ball for me . If there are no changes in the market conditions , I think it will make it , but if there is any change it might not .

    BTW , would love to hear you prediction for Brisbane ... Maybe another thread ?

    Cliff
     
  7. hobo-jo

    hobo-jo Not a bear just a realist

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    Tempted, yes, but I'll stick with 'no' at this point :D
     
  8. Richard Feynman

    Richard Feynman Mortgage Broker

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    I discovered this.

    [​IMG]

    And I ran the numbers.

    7% over 8 years (Sept 2007 to Sept 2015)= $987,957

    Just over 1% growth per month required to land there.

    My.
     
  9. jerrybee

    jerrybee Member

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    You should start it!
     
  10. dajackal

    dajackal Member

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  11. Ausprop

    Ausprop Member

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    really? it would only require a further 36.4% growth in 7 months :cool:
     
  12. C-mac

    C-mac Member

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    I never voted on the original poll for this but my vote would be 'no'. Why? I think the wildcard of the APRA/lender rules coming in to play in April, will take a couple months to wash through; then come July/August, we will start to see the effect of that. Most local buyers - ppor and investor alike - will be dampened on how much they can afford to spend, and thus what stock they can access, by these APRA changes.

    So I think we'll see the effects of that.

    The exception would be the Chinese and other foreign Cash buyers, they won't be affected by the lender rules.

    So, for them though, they mostly tend to buy in specific favoured postcodes. They'll continue to bid these up to stupidly high prices, so those postcodes will remain high. But non-Chinese-favoured postcodes will mute back down a little bit in terms of median price, by around Sep-Oct (this is my pure speculation!)

    The overall effect will be a subdued median price for Sydney as a result, so no, I find it unlikely we will hit that $1million (house price) median by end of year.
     
  13. see_change

    see_change Apprentice Timing Lord

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    I haven't finished buying yet .... ;)

    Cliff
     
  14. JohnHenry

    JohnHenry Mister

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    Well if that's the case, then we should now avoid to buy IP in Sydney and then buy within 10 KM of Brisbane CBD for a short term Capita Growth ?
     
  15. see_change

    see_change Apprentice Timing Lord

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    Comes down to individuals doing their own DD and what style of investing you like doing .

    We're about to settle on an OTP unit we organised in late 2013 in Teneriffe , but it's only a small percentage of our portfolio and I've got a good income

    The general advise is don't buy units centrally in Brisbane due to upcoming supply issues but we got this one at a good price and its - nice property in a nice location .

    cliff
     
  16. JohnHenry

    JohnHenry Mister

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    Yes, that's the thing, hence most of the OTP vendor, they are offering one year of rental guarantee. But what happens after the one year of rental guarantee, it will be a gambling :confused:
     
  17. wombat777

    wombat777 Member

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    I chuckled when I stumbled on this 2010 article:

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/median-house-price-1m-by-2010/story-e6frewt0-1225817659609

     
  18. Ausprop

    Ausprop Member

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  19. see_change

    see_change Apprentice Timing Lord

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    There are two types of rental guratee's I've seen .

    One that is based at market rent , which can be offered in circumstances such as the developer is building next door and that will ( in the short term ) make a unit more difficult to rent .

    One that is offering an inflated rental guarantee , so that the buyer thinks the property is worth more than it is . The funds to pay the rental guarantee are funded by an inflated price . The tenant is paying significantly under the guarantee. When the the guarantee runs out they are in for a rude shock . Not sure how common this is now , but in previous cycles it caused lots of grief in parts of brisbane and probably was a factor in price drops in some areas .

    Cliff
     
  20. JohnHenry

    JohnHenry Mister

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    Many thanks for the explanation Cliff, you're amazingly great :)