Will the Sydney median house price reach $1 million by the end of 2015?

Will the Sydney median house price reach $1 million by the end of 2015?

  • Yes

    Votes: 48 38.4%
  • No

    Votes: 77 61.6%

  • Total voters
    125
Even if the median goes to 1mil do the maths. Lets take Ryde for an example of a couple buying a fibro shack for $900k.

Purchase price - $900k
Deposit - 90k
Rates - 6.9%

Repayment on $810k @ 6.9% - 68k per year.

Lets say you stay in this property and live 10 years for those 10 years repayment would total $680k not counting repairs on the fibro shack.

So here comes the final part.....

$900k+680k = 1.58M add stamp duty and lets round it of to 1.6m.


In 10 years someone needs a wage big enough to buy that shack
 
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Even if the median goes to 1mil do the maths. Lets take Ryde for an example of a couple buying a fibro shack for $900k.

Purchase price - $900k
Deposit - 90k
Rates - 6.9%

Repayment on $810k @ 6.9% - 68k per year.

Lets say you stay in this property and live 10 years for those 10 years repayment would total $680k not counting repairs on the fibro shack.

So here comes the final part.....

$900k+680k = 1.58M add stamp duty and lets round it of to 1.6m.


In 10 years someone needs a wage big enough to buy that shack


Most people spending 1 mill on a property are not buying their first property so that's not really relevant.

They will generally have a reasonable deposit , or if not , a higher or two wages

Cliff
 
After the latest raft of articles in the last week , I'm shifting my view towards the median making the 1 mill by end of next year .

Not certain , but probable .

Cliff
 
After the latest raft of articles in the last week , I'm shifting my view towards the median making the 1 mill by end of next year .

Not certain , but probable .

Cliff

Based on what I'm seeing at Western Sydney opens, and the prices people are paying, I agree.
 
Based on what I'm seeing at Western Sydney opens, and the prices people are paying, I agree.

Skater

Whats a standard 3 bedder ex houso in Mt druitt going for in now , Letho , Whalan etc . Reasonable condition , not reno , but not a renovators special ?

Cliff
 
83% auction clearance rate again in Sydney yesterday. Not slowing down.

The Northern Beaches had a 97% clearance rate last week.
 
I voted yes. Go Sydney. You flaming ripper. I still reckon things have not gone super nuts yet although I think they are starting too. In fact about four months ago I wrote in a post that things hadn't started to go nuts yet in Sydney and two or three people shot my comments down and said they were pulling out of Sydney. Hopefully they didn't and are enjoying the ride.

From all the commentary re Sydney in the last year or so there has been one fellow on this forum that has so far hit the nail on the head and has been spot on and that is see change. Well done see change.
 
I voted yes. Go Sydney. You flaming ripper. I still reckon things have not gone super nuts yet although I think they are starting too. In fact about four months ago I wrote in a post that things hadn't started to go nuts yet in Sydney and two or three people shot my comments down and said they were pulling out of Sydney. Hopefully they didn't and are enjoying the ride.

From all the commentary re Sydney in the last year or so there has been one fellow on this forum that has so far hit the nail on the head and has been spot on and that is see change. Well done see change.

OK so you're saying that based on all See Change's posts that now is a good time to buy in Sydney? Even though he's not doing that?
If I read correctly, the one thing he did right was to somehow get hold of a whole lot of money during the GFC. Kudos to him for having the wherewithall to buy up then.
Not the same as buying up now though, is it? Are you buying in Sydney now?
 
OK so you're saying that based on all See Change's posts that now is a good time to buy in Sydney? Even though he's not doing that?
If I read correctly, the one thing he did right was to somehow get hold of a whole lot of money during the GFC. Kudos to him for having the wherewithall to buy up then.
Not the same as buying up now though, is it? Are you buying in Sydney now?

No, I am saying now is the time to sit back and enjoy the ride. The only reason I would buy in Sydney now is if I found an absolute bargain which I would not think there would be any left.

No, am not buying now in Sydney as bought already four years ago.
 
If I read correctly, the one thing he did right was to somehow get hold of a whole lot of money during the GFC. Kudos to him for having the wherewithall to buy up then.

What we did do at the end of the last cycle was sell properties and pay down debt . I'm not a buy and hold for ever person.

For someone who's watched property for a while , buying centrally in Sydney after the GFC hit was a no brainer . I don't think I even spent much time on the forum seeing what other people thought .

The properties we sold were in Logan and Rocky and they've only just started moving again , where as the properties we bought at that stage are up about 60 % since we bought them , These ones we plan to hold long term.

We had an LOC available on our PPOR ( had been untouched for several years ) , so when the GFC hit we were able to make cash offers at a time when getting finance was next to impossible.

When we're in buying mode , I usually spend a lot of time on the forum reading posts and researching . After a while you learn who to listen to and who not to.

As I said in the secrets post , it's a matter of working out what works for you individually . I've always been in favor of paying down debt and i'm happy to take a profit , pay tax , so I'm in not extended when the market is potentially going to slow down .

We've only relatively extended ourselves financially on two occasions , and that was in 2003 - 2004 and the middle of last year , and even then we have lots of elbow room if things go wrong . If we were more aggressive , we could potentially be much better off than we are , but the SANF would be a pain.

If we do buy any further properties in the current cycle , they will be in cheaper areas and bought with the specific purpose to sell and pay down debt on the ones we've bought in nicer areas . That might happen if Sydney goes up another 15-20 % in the short term . Then we can sell our PPOR , pay down some non deductible debt and gear up .

Cliff
 
Skater

Whats a standard 3 bedder ex houso in Mt druitt going for in now , Letho , Whalan etc . Reasonable condition , not reno , but not a renovators special ?

Cliff

To be completely honest, I haven't kept my eye on the pulse, although I do have to get over there & start looking around, as we've got a couple to shift. The ones I've been looking at are over St Clair/Erskine Park.

There's a lot of people with a lot of money to throw around.
 
Alright. Some scenarios:

If from July 2014 until the end of the year we see 10% growth, then 8.23% throughout 2015, we'll just make it.

Or 7% to end of year, then 11.26%.

Or 5% then 13.38%

Food for though.
 
Median house value of $1million by 2015/2016 is absolutely nuts.

Can it get there?
Yes

Will it stay there?
I doubt it

We are talking median prices here, so its very very broad based.

Hobo-jo might have the last laugh, but unfortunately a decade or so too late, and from a price decline that is much higher than he originally forecast.
 
Median house value of $1million by 2015/2016 is absolutely nuts.

Can it get there?
Yes

Will it stay there?
I doubt it

We are talking median prices here, so its very very broad based.

Hobo-jo might have the last laugh, but unfortunately a decade or so too late, and from a price decline that is much higher than he originally forecast.

It will get there .

It may come down below that in the next correction which will come at some stage ( Just not for a while IMHO ) but in a decade or two we'll be having a debate as to whether Sydney median prices will hit 2 mill ......

My recollection is that hobo-jo sold their PPOR in adelaide around 4 years ago and ? doesn't have any property at the moment ( correct me if I'm wrong ) . If they don't get their skates on they're going to miss out on any growth in the current Cycle . We've done very nicely in the last year and I expect a couple more years of similar returns ;)

Cliff
 
Hobo-jo might have the last laugh, but unfortunately a decade or so too late, and from a price decline that is much higher than he originally forecast.
I've already said my prediction of 15-20% off from last peak was wrong, we got around 8% nationally.

My recollection is that hobo-jo sold their PPOR in adelaide around 4 years ago and ? doesn't have any property at the moment ( correct me if I'm wrong ) .
Right and it's working well for me so far ;)
 
46ee44b58791cc4576392de9669734ad


Just looking at the graph and mainly the upward prediction of the blue line.

it seems that if someone had drawn the same blue line back in 2008 the $1m median could have been forecast to arrive in about July 2011, and if they had drawn the blue line in 2010 the $1m median prediction would have been about July 2012.

Even back in 2003, the curve could have predicted the $1m median to arrive in 2009.

Yet here we are in Sept 2014, and the median stands at about 850k...

I'm not saying there will be a crash, I'm just saying that I doubt the market will continue to rise as uniformly as the blue line suggests.
 

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I'm going to be more conservative and take a stab Sydney will hit $900k by 2016 before retracing to $850k in 2017. At $1m, that's London house prices, which is pretty rich, although I note the UK is a much shabbier place to be right now.
 
46ee44b58791cc4576392de9669734ad


Just looking at the graph and mainly the upward prediction of the blue line.

it seems that if someone had drawn the same blue line back in 2008 the $1m median could have been forecast to arrive in about July 2011, and if they had drawn the blue line in 2010 the $1m median prediction would have been about July 2012.

Even back in 2003, the curve could have predicted the $1m median to arrive in 2009.

Yet here we are in Sept 2014, and the median stands at about 850k...

I'm not saying there will be a crash, I'm just saying that I doubt the market will continue to rise as uniformly as the blue line suggests.

That's why you look at long term trends and don't cherry pick short term trends

The most telling graph is the log scale ( percentage increase ) , which shows a straight line increase. Recently it has been below trend and each time it has been below trend in the past it gets to a point where it catches up and then track above the trend line . Will be interesting to see what it looks like in around five years

Of all the graphs that are posted ad nausea , this one is the most important .

Cliff
 
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