Got a figure in mind though?
Will the Sydney median house price reach $1 million by the end of 2015?
- Thread starter Shadow
- Start date
Got a figure in mind though?
Actually this time....the A,B, and C stuff....
The clock just struck mind night...if you are Cinderella...you better get in carriage before the carriage and horses into pumpkins and mice.
But the thing Sash, as you posted 'regret'
You did regret the two properties you sold..
Yes...I missed on about 150k growth across both properties as I got a stellar price back then...hind sight is a wonderful thing...
1.3 would be a steroid cycle for sure, certainly not natural gains.
C&K
Did I say this cycle ?
My words were " some time " , in my life time , I mean I'm only talking 2-3 cycles away .
I'll leave the guessing games to other . I think it just detracts for the aim of making money .
I think I've bought three properties at the bottom of a cycle ( two Mosman units and our weekender , the first two by design , the last included an element of luck ) but I've certainly never sold anything at the top , and I don't include that as a target . If it happens great , but I'm not relying on it .
Cliff
Wishful thinking. Hockey is talking about doing the opposite... increasing demand by letting FHBs use their super to buy property. The NSW government is talking about allowing stamp duty to be paid off over five years.
That was also your guess last year and the year before. If you make the same guess every year then eventually you might get it right.
It's almost certain to hit $1 million this year (as measured by the Residex index). Assuming interest rates are cut another two times, I expect the peak to be 2017.
I think Sydney now has an emerging bubble.
Based on the latest ABS data, Sydney's house price to income ratio exceeded its previous 2003 peak last quarter.
Sydney house prices are now at a new all time record high relative to incomes...
http://i187.photobucket.com/albums/x308/LPShadow/Sydney-Bubble-01.png~original
However, as the next chart shows, low interest rates are keeping Sydney homes relatively affordable.
The ratio of mortgage repayments to income has been much higher in the past (due to higher interest rates)...
http://i187.photobucket.com/albums/x308/LPShadow/Sydney-Bubble-02.png~original
If the RBA keeps interest rates low, or cuts rates further, we are going to see a continued rise in the price/income ratio. It is going to enter very risky and bubbly territory.
This bubble will continue to grow until one of the following happens...
1. Interest rates hit zero and the RBA cannot cut rates any further
2. The RBA raises interest rates by at least 1% (above whatever 'bottom' is eventually reached)
3. The construction boom creates an over-supply of dwellings (keep an eye on vacancy rates)
I'm giving it at least two more years. I think it will probably pop in 2017 as one or more of the above conditions is likely to be in place by then.
When it pops, I think the price/income ratio will fall back to the 'trough' reached in 2008 (see top chart).
I'd be surprised if that gets legs, already getting slammed from the left & right on this suggestion.
Don't recall making any recent Sydney specific predictions, except those I made late last year about expecting a peak this year... can you link to where I said they'd peak in 2014 or 2013?
If I had, would it be that different to your changing predictions for Sydney, from $1.25m to $1m to "approaching" $1m, then "by 2015" to "by the end of 2015", etc.
i think that was the labor opposition . If labor get in in NSW I will get drunk and put a picture of Tony Abbott on the dart board at our weekender.
Re hobo , he'll keep on saying it .
Logic says the peak will be some time 2016 -18 . Question then will be will it platueax or drop . In my experience for it to drop there needs to be a decent external economic shock , usually not predicted , otherwise I'd expect it to drift sideways in actual dollar terms while affordability creeps in .
Cliff
It was on twitter - when the ratio of investors in Sydney reached 2003 levels you said that marked the peak because it had marked the peak in 2003.
My prediction hasn't changed for half a decade, and 'by 2015' means the same as 'by the end of 2015'. 2015 lasts for an entire year. You're just mad because you finally realise I was right. Who knows, we might even hit $1.25M before this boom ends. Wouldn't that be nice?
Shadow
What was the peak in 2003 ? Looks around 580 from your initial graph
If that's correct , then my expectations would be that we see a peak of around double that at 1,15-6,000
Though hobo , that's my expectation , and not a prediction ....
cliff
What was the peak in 2003 ? Looks around 580 from your initial graph
If that's correct , then my expectations would be that we see a peak of around double that at 1,15-6,000
Though hobo , that's my expectation , and not a prediction ....
cliff
Shadow
What was the peak in 2003 ? Looks around 580 from your initial graph
If that's correct , then my expectations would be that we see a peak of around double that at 1,15-6,000
Though hobo , that's my expectation , and not a prediction ....
cliff
Exactly what I'm predicting - a doubling from 2003/2004 by 2018. Depends which company/ govt department median price you listen to. I was working on a peak of circa 1.3 million as I thought it was circa $650,000 back in 2003/04.
Go Sydney you big ripper! Have turned my attention to Noosa now for some quick capital growth.
Really interesting comments here shadow - hopefully Sydney has a bit more to go!
The 'bubble' is a function of serviceability.
If you can borrow $100000000000000 at 0% interest with no repayments for 100000000 years, does it matter that a house is $10000000000?
Of course that's not the case. So you have to take a view on serviceability going forward.
If you can borrow $100000000000000 at 0% interest with no repayments for 100000000 years, does it matter that a house is $10000000000?
Of course that's not the case. So you have to take a view on serviceability going forward.
just read TWO MSM articles from different media factions all saying "buy now before you get priced out".
we usually know what that means.
we usually know what that means.
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