Wrong

yeah.

sell now.

sell all of it now.

if dent still thinks deflation is coming to Australia two years after that was written, then he's in for a shock.

the US are exporting inflation. with inflation comes erosion of the comparative value of debt issued in the inflating currency.
 
I dont know about you but I prefer to focus on investing, not speculating.
Though everyone negatively geared is speculating, not investing. So there is a highly speculative slant in the Australian property market which has been the downfall of many other property markets around the world. Noone thought it could happen to them, until it did.
 
In Oz (compared to other countries)

Low unemployment
Low interest rates....with room to go lower if needed
Still one of the highest population growth rates of "stable" countries
Still the deep seeded belief that owning your own home is the great Aussie dream

Same old same old......

Crash not likely
 
Though everyone negatively geared is speculating, not investing. So there is a highly speculative slant in the Australian property market which has been the downfall of many other property markets around the world. Noone thought it could happen to them, until it did.
I don't agree that everyone that negative gears is speculating. I negatively gear development sites. I am not betting that the value goes up... I am waiting until I get myself organised to develop. Once developed, both my sites will be positive cash flow. I also know that the prices of my blocks does not steadily increase. It increases and decreases with the property cycle. I have owned one in Melbs for long enough to see it almost double in value and then fall back to close to it's original price (based on comparable sales in the area). But don't ask me. My LVR is 50%. I'm not a gambler. :D
 
Everyone who predicts property will fall gets it wrong. Everyone who predicts property will rise gets it right.

http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2003/07/05/1057179204746.html

Note 2003 date
Well that prediction was made by Ray White, so what do you expect? If they had predicted the $1M Sydney median by the end of 2015, rather than 2012, then they would have been much closer to the mark. But at least they got the direction right, which is a lot more than can be said for the bear predictions of 40% crashes etc. Sydney's median house price is around $750K now, an all-time-high, and still rising pretty fast.
 
Nice article. In 03' would you rather have purchased
  • Gold
  • Blue chip Aussie shares
  • Median valued property
Gold was $A515 in July 2003, today A$1450. Almost tripled.

Are you saying that median valued property has outperformed this?

Not sure what point you are trying to make.
 
Personally I've done far better than the median increase in all those asset classes through leverage and changing usage.

For me Property wins
 
Usually people who predict crashes are usually economists from abroad. And it's based on as much voodoo numbers as the people who predict booms. Tell me about some interesting government policy that supports either direction instead.
 
Gold was $A515 in July 2003, today A$1450. Almost tripled.

Are you saying that median valued property has outperformed this?

Not sure what point you are trying to make.
It may have tripled in actual ounce value, but you haven't factored in all the other aspects of property investment that improve the return on one's invested cash.

Tax return, depreciation, rent, value add through reno, and so on...not just cap growth.

The other aspect is the ability to borrow funds for gold versus borrowing funds for property.

It is actually possible to only ever buy property with borrowed funds and get rich.

I bought 5 IP's this way, in the space of 5 years...no actual hard-earned cash used.

How do you calculate that IRR?
 
Will we see 30+% decline in value like gold has crashed or are these guys simply wrong
Note sep 2011 date
http://m.smh.com.au/money/investing/deflating-speculation-on-the-property-bubble-20110917-1kepn.html

At any time there would be so many predictions out there each day on events occurring within one week or over any specified time frame from up-market media fast bucks book selling-economists,and all know how to spin their stories from every different angle,unless there is Bubble in China that has already burst a few months back,if it has then Australia is in the line for value decrease in all areas,the stock market gold are the first off the cab rank,property comes in later,that's the negative effect on prediction the ones you don't see coming are the ones that do the most damage..
http://secureyourfuture.com.au/
 
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