Zero bps!!

They will cut further

It is just a short rest - they will cut further for sure. They either think it is all over (delusional) or they are keeping some ammunition for when it gets really bad (i.e. unemployment goes up). Probably the latter.
 
End of cycle.
Next move is up.

Nope.

They made their decision a day too early.

The Dec figures which came out today are neg, and you can bet the next quarter will be ugly as well.

The world carnage is not over yet. AIG in the States is the biggest insurer in their country, and posted a $90bill odd loss for the last quarter. This is a sign of more to come for the rest of this year.

Look for another .5% in April and another .25 -.50% in May I'm tipping.

Dare I say; a full 100 points by end of financial year? :cool:
 
I'm not suggesting that the downturn is over. RBA may be interested in protecting the AUD.
One of the prominent problems of this crisis is the "synthetic" insolvency of the banks, and not only in exposure to property but to business funding such as private equity.
Banks were engaged in acquiring funds from overseas to provide AUD loans, and their exposure may be in JPY and USD and in other currencies (I do not know which will be the main, I'm not a financier)

Now imagine, God forbid, that you had a very low % interest loan obligation in JPY or in USD in early or mid 2008. How would you feel now? That's how the banks feel.

Now, whether I like it or not the governments around the world and their lackeys the central banks are trying to save the banking system. And the damage from very low AUD for the banks can be no less than the damage from the shrinking value of the collateral. If the aim is to save the banking system, while the current recession is unavoidable, RBA would not like to see them even more in the red over currency exposure.
 
bloomberg is very reliable as I said several times.
they are talking about traders (the actual people that deal with banks bill or libor), I guess the swiss swap trading index is not much different then the future you are imagining :rolleyes:

hey no prob with bloomberg - but are they bloomberg figures...?!

no need to be nasty - i just hate these "percent chances" of "this or that happening" - it's like holding a pair of diamonds in hold-em with 2 on the table and saying "there's a 25% chance i could win this with a flush" - and a 75% chance you wont.

it's about as reliable as a poker match.
 
Man.goo, is that the way you are always going to post?

[ ] Great Pictures
[ ] Thanks for sharing
[ ] Looks like all were having fun
[ ] Nice house
[ ] That's a great yield
[ ] Looks like a hamburger
[ ] Sometimes I like to walk in the park
[ ] This has already been discussed on the forum
[x] No
[ ] Yes
 
[ ] Great Pictures
[ ] Thanks for sharing
[ ] Looks like all were having fun
[ ] Nice house
[ ] That's a great yield
[ ] Looks like a hamburger
[ ] Sometimes I like to walk in the park
[ ] This has already been discussed on the forum
[x] No
[ ] Yes

lol......nice one...
 
[ ] Great Pictures
[ ] Thanks for sharing
[ ] Looks like all were having fun
[ ] Nice house
[ ] That's a great yield
[ ] Looks like a hamburger
[ ] Sometimes I like to walk in the park
[ ] This has already been discussed on the forum
[x] No
[ ] Yes

PS.

[ ] Great Pictures
[ ] Thanks for sharing
[ ] Looks like all were having fun
[ ] Nice house
[ ] That's a great yield
[X] Looks like a hamburger
[ ] Sometimes I like to walk in the park
[ ] This has already been discussed on the forum
[x] No
[ ] Yes
 
[ ] Great Pictures
[ ] Thanks for sharing
[x] Looks like all were having fun
[ ] Nice house
[ ] That's a great yield
[ ] Looks like a hamburger
[ ] Sometimes I like to walk in the park
[ ] This has already been discussed on the forum
[ ] No
[ ] Yes


It's 1:30AM and I'm bored :p
 
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