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I'm not sure why you're mentioning Short Term issues when you've made a Long Term prediction :confused: Re 2) Should this be in the L/T list below ? If so, then your comment on unemployment being in a long term upward trend is interesting. You will be aware that the number of jobs is...

Brilliant.... I have a similar chart - except one of the lines is inverted & labeled slightly differently :D Regardless, best of luck with all your endeavors :)

Back in 2008 we had this debate. Me & the RBA thought your metric was rubbish then, and we still think it's garbage now. BTW since yesterday another 350 FHB families were able to afford a home :D... so that's me, the RBA and another 8000 families since May reckon housing is still affordable...

Every day another 400 families can afford to buy a 1st home. Housing remains affordable - when it stops being affordable, people will stop buying & price will stop rising. Based on the trend of the last 25 yrs do you think it will be any time soon ? That's why we here. Your affordability...

The ABS graph for the last 25 yrs clearly shows 7-8000 FHBers being able to afford a house every month. That's about a sample size of over 1,000,000 families. Surely that is sufficient to convince you that affordability is pretty much the same as 25 yrs ago.

Last month 7000 families didn't care much about that. The month before 8000 FHBers didn't care about that hypothetical point either. Back in Jan there were another 8000 FHBers that overcame adversity & saved for a deposit. 8000 FHBers for every month of 2014 didn't think it was a biggie...

Oh no it doesn't..... ....this chart tells the real story.... (sourced from ABS) It shows the actual number of FHBers each month for a couple of decades. These are actual people buying real houses. Every month 7 or 8 thousand FHBers actually stop spending $$$ on 'stuff' and buy a house...

Sounds as though desirable real estate has always been expensive for all of your lifetime.

Here's 300 acres of mostly level bushland for ~$1000/acre in Lithgow region (approx 150km from Sydney). It's is close enough to get there in a hurry, but far enough away from the remaining 4 million Sydneysiders who may or may not have ebola or are about to be nuked, or expecting mass...

Can you summarise what these keys fundamentals will be ?

I'm not sure wages will ever catch up. Mostly because Average Wage vs Median Price is a crap ratio that the media/pollies continue to use. It completely ignores the fact that the vast majority of non-FHB have a massive deposit (often > 50%) to put down against their 2nd purchase. This deposit...

A few things that may cause a crash - IRs rising to 7% - however current thinking is that low IRs is the 'new normal' - (especially in Oz for the medium term IMO) Unemployment continuing to rise q/q - however todays (surprise) was an improvement to 6.0% (but could easily change) GDP -ve for...

There's many unlikely events that have low probability of occurring (but non-zero) & are completely out of our control... mostly not worth worrying about unless you have excess spare cash. Epedemic isn't top of the Doomsday scenarios list though. I once considered buying a cheap 1000 acres...

Do you have the 'numbers' for the 2 or 3 years prior to the last boom in Bris ? (the one that finished in 2003/4). Are there are any similarities or differences between then & now ? Do you feel the numbers will preempt the upswing ? or are the numbers always going to be a lagging indicator...

Are you suggesting that the govt should legislate to prevent the current generation spending $$$ on cheap flights/iPhones and instead start saving to buy a roof over their head ? Because if you want to make things just like they were in previous generations, that would be a great policy.... :D

Could ask the neighbors..... aahh.... no wait....

That was my question. I've always been sceptical about when I'd get access to MY super - the rules have changed so often I had zero trust in the govt. For me the tax benefits never outweighed the lack of certainty. Now I feel I'm close enough to the magic 60 that I treat my assets as 2...

The banks response to APRA is to reduce discounts on variable rates. Will they reduce discounts on fixed rates too ? And O/S bond yields look like they are rising - is that likely to increase fixed rates here ? It looks to me as though fixed rates have bottomed & the only way from here is...

My understanding is different from yours. If you have any link to the new APRA regulations/recommendations/suggestions then I'd be keen to see them.

Interestingly, the RBA Shadow Board thinks rates should rise within 6 months. It seems to think that the economy hasn't weakened much in the last few months, so the current setting is appropriate. This is the direct opposite of what the yield curve is telling us. But as the Shadow Board is...