Search results

Hi devo, you should post, not all on GHPC have the same view of the future for property. I don't see a crash coming, and for the main reason (a little bit different to yours, but along the same lines), that people won't sell property when it isn't doing well. I think the majority of the...

A Giant Iguana.... looking to upgrade to a Norco soon... mountain bikes incase you're confused..... :)

The rain has finally cleared in Brissie, I'm off for a ride!

Be warned, some there have what I'd call extreme views on a crash, some are anti property investing, some just think the boom has over shot and will become good value again in the future, which is a normal thing to happen in any boom.

Back onto Shadow's theory of Sydney outperforming in the near future, looking at these graphs I can see how prices could rise there, particularly if commodities drop off and people and money flow back to Sydney..... These are median housing costs as a percentage of income, by city. Home...

No guarantees in those projections though, all we can do is look at the probabilities and compare it to what has happened int he past. There may be factors that prevent history repeating. In theory sustained periods of low inflation should constrain house price growth, as we've seen recently...

Thanks Jingo, Economists are a bit like weathermen, they are good at telling you what just happened, not so good at accurately telling what will happen (I think the saying goes something like that?). Anyway, no one knows what will happen, but we can weigh up probabilities. I'm a bit...

I don't think you needed to know when and how big the boom is going to be, just that realestate showed good value during the late 90s: If prices are on or below the trend, your chances for future gains are greatly improved, historically speaking.

Hi Token Household income growth has increased, thanks mainly to higher levels of employment, ie. more households have dual incomes than they use to due to more housewives willing to go back to work, and more employment opportunities. Increased surplus cashflow allows households to take on...

Although, I guess in the short term Sydney isn't benefiting from the resources boom to the extent other cities are: http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22988823-421,00.html I guess this may change if commodity prices nose dive.

Yep, those cities close to lifestyle locations, like Sydney and Brisbane may do well out of this change..... northern regional towns like Cairns and Townsville might be well positioned too.....?

Going back to long term growth trends and superstar cities, what will the effect of retiring BBs be on demand for inner city properties? I can see how future demographic chages will benefit coastal areas and lifestyle locations, but will growth rates in cities be reversed? Perhaps immigration...

Good points, it would take a bit of faith in capital gain magic to invest now, unless you have particular special knowledge or ability to increase value through development, etc. I'm unsure on asset classes ATM too, you can get a guaranteed 8% tax free by minimising debt. That can compound...

Sorry to butt in here, but Lower US consumption feeds through to Asia's growth, and our exports. Less exports means less domestic growth, perhaps lower interest rates, but also less employment and banks tightening their belts.... possibly, no one has a crystal ball. No but they are...

I agree Sydney is looking better than it has, but increased growth is not an indication of better fundamental support for prices. If we get 20% growth between now and 2010 we will be moving further away from the wage and income support for prices we've just been discussing, and has existed for...

And that's the key, we need to see everything else increasing, while property increases at a lower rate to make it attractive again. If you can invest in everything else (or something else) in the mean time, you are in a good position to buy property when it gets overtaken.... in theory. The...

Oh forgot to answer this bit: Rising unemployment combined with high inflation have historically mirrored these negative real growth events, and seen affordability restored to long term trends. So I think any correction back to the long term trend will require people losing their jobs. When...

Thanks Shadow, so we will have falling interest rates, investors moving back to property for a few reasons, immigration, low supply, high demand, and changes to financing. If we do get property prices stagnating or falling back over the next couple years and rents continuing to increase, I...

Thanks keith, I actually really enjoyed your interview thread. You seem to have hit the right markets at the right time. I know there are other investors here who will tell me I can make money in any market at any time, but a bit like you I'm a lazy investor. I only timed it to get the shares...

Interesting assumption that those not in property don't get rich. I will probably invest in property one day, but I don't think doing it now suits my current position. That's a personal choice. I also find it interesting that people invest in something without understanding why they are doing...