Will Australia's next property boom be the greatest boom we've ever seen?

What will happen to Australian property prices over the next 10 years...

  • Big boom first, then bust (bigger boom & bust than the last one)

    Votes: 20 20.6%
  • Small boom first, then bust (smaller boom & bust than the last one)

    Votes: 25 25.8%
  • Recession first, then big boom (bigger boom than the last one)

    Votes: 17 17.5%
  • Recession first, then small boom (smaller boom than the last one)

    Votes: 24 24.7%
  • Continual stagnation or falling prices for the next 10 years

    Votes: 11 11.3%

  • Total voters
    97
  • Poll closed .
This is why I think Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane have so much potential for further growth. They are very desirable cities. Sydney has been regularly regularly voted as the World's Best City...

The superstar cities theory has been discussed over at GHPC in the past, JIT started the thread on it:



Referring to this article from NBER

http://www.nber.org/digest/mar07/w12355.html

Interestingly some of the authors of this paper have changed their views with more recent events in the US:

http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article.cfm?articleid=1802

And certainly it wasn't the case in Japan:

japan_housing_bubble.jpg


Although that may be a more extreme example of what is likely to happen in this country.....
 
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What I am arguing is moving forward the house prices can not outstrip incomes continually because you will hit a point where there simply isn't enough money to fund it.

YM, do you believe that the amount of money in the world is constant or do you believe that more money (wealth) is constantly being created?

If you believe the latter as I do, then why can't that extra wealth flow to those holding well-positioned property assets, continually, and forever!
 
YM, do you believe that the amount of money in the world is constant or do you believe that more money (wealth) is constantly being created?

If you believe the latter as I do, then why can't that extra wealth flow to those holding well-positioned property assets, continually, and forever!

These people are currently in the minority and don't represent the majority of property buyers..... This may change in the future and only investors and the rich participate in the property market. Are there currently any countries where this is already the case?
 
The superstar cities theory has been discussed over at GHPC in the past, JIT started the thread on it:

Interesting thread. Those GHPC folks are an uncivilised lot aren't they! I may have to join up there and post some threads in the manner of my alter-ego below :D

http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?t=37986&page=5

Referring to this article from NBER. Interestingly some of the authors of this paper have changed their views with more recent events in the US:

Yes... so even the highly-desirable areas/cities do have a limit on price growth - i.e. after they have been populated only by the very rich, and those very rich people's wages are no longer increasing significantly, then there is a limit on further growth. But Australia has quite some way to go before our cities are inhabited only by the super-rich. Hence my expectation for exponential growth until we get to that stage. Once we do get to that stage, it's time for the high-density development to take over (as per Manhattan, London etc.)

And certainly it wasn't the case in Japan:

This comes back to supply and demand. Japan's population is not rising like Australia.

Cheers,

Shadow.
 
This may change in the future and only investors and the rich participate in the property market. Are there currently any countries where this is already the case?

Countries: Hong Kong & Singapore heading that way.
Cities: Manhattan, London, Paris, Rome, Moscow.


'There were 798,144 housing units in Manhattan as of the 2000 Census, at an average density of 34,756.7/sq mi (13,421.8/km²).[1] Only 20.3% of Manhattan residents lived in owner-occupied housing'

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manhattan#Housing


'Singapore has grown at least 100 square kilometres from its original size before 1819. The urban planning policy demands that most buildings being constructed should be high-rise, with exceptions for conservation efforts for heritage or nature.'

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urban_planning_in_Singapore
 
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These people are currently in the minority and don't represent the majority of property buyers..... This may change in the future and only investors and the rich participate in the property market. Are there currently any countries where this is already the case?
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Dear FHB,

1. To a certain extent, I am seeing this happening in Singapore already and in its present property market "boom" in 2006 and 2007, whereby only the prices for the high end properties have started to move, being driven by the rich Singaporeans and foreign investors.

2. Instead of further upgrading on their flats, many of the new urban poor and the elderly Singaporeans are either maintaining their status quos or actually "downgrading" from their HDB public flats so as to cash out on their properties to "retire" off or/and pay for their daily living expenses.

3. More than 85% of the Singaporeans live in the HDB public flats, while another 12% live/own private condo units and even fewer can afford live on/own landed properties in Singapore.

4. This is much unlike the housing situation in Australia, today

5. For your further comments and discussion,please.

6. Thank you.


Cheers,
Kenneth KOH
 
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two tiers: rich and poor.

no middle class, as those who currently "have" (assets and financial ability) will get richer, in his opinion, and those that "have not" will get poorer due the the above reasons. nb: emerging socities like china and india are growing their middle class but this class is disappearing in developed countries.

so, does that mean that those who have the ability will end up with the affluent properties to live in and the lower rungs of properties for renting - and those who do not have the ability will be perpetual renters?

wonder what will happen with the upgrading middle class?
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Dear Lizzie,

1. In Singapore, our Middle Class first started to appear in late 1960s and has been growing till 1990s. Consequently, the majority of Singaporeans are deemed to be in the Middle Class status, being able to "own" their own HDB public flats with/without an existing HDB Loan Mortgage.

2. With property prices in Singapore starting to rise rocket-high in the 1990s, this Middle Class subsequently began to be polarised towards 2 basic groups, the Rich who are afford to own and live in private properties and the Poor who "rent" to live in Public flats, through their own respective "social upgrading" and "down-grading" exercises.

3. While the owners of the private properties in Singapore, can easily mortgage their properties to the banks in exchange for cash and for their investment capital, the owners of the HDB flats could not raise any funds with their HDB "public flat" ownership titles.

4. Beside the Middle Class, many of the Rich also suffered from negative house equity during the post 1997 Asian Financial Crises period.

5. Many of them were thus forced to down-grade themselves into living in the cheaper HDB public flats while a number of them lost their wealth over-night, following loan recall, subsequent public seizure of their properties by their lending banks and were thus forced to "rent" to live in.

6. Consequently, many of the so-called "Middle Class" in Singapore become "asset rich but cash poor".

7. With continued rising housing price and high living costs, some of the ex-Middle Class Singaporean families eventually become the new "urban poor" in Singapore today, not having sufficient cash to upkeep their own family' daily expenses as a result of their "expensive" lifestyle patterns, of owning/maintaining a private car, mobile phone, cable TV and Internet subscription, taking annual overseas family holidays etc, as well as the need to provide for their elderly family members.

8. With the aging of the babyboomer generations, many of these Singaporeans are actually "down-sizing" their public flats presently. Many of them have also opted to continue working after reaching their normal retirement age of 62, in order to provide sufficient cash/savings for their own daily expenses for the remaining part of their earthly lives.

8. The Singapore Govt is now converting some of their unsold excess HDB flats supply as rental flats for these urban poor to live in during their old age as well as providing short term 30 years leasehold tenure HDB flats at more affordable prices of about S$45,000.

9. Thus, apparently, the Middle Class in Singapore has effectively shrunked in size over the last 20 years, with the fast-emerging of the new urban poor.

10. There is also a fast emerging trend for many of these newly urban poor opting to further "down-grade" themselves towards "renting" a public flat to live in for the rest of their lives.

11. Likewise, I understand that the Middle Class is fast disappearing in Scotland today too, with many of them only able to afford to "rent" on stay on their existing properties.

12. For your further comments and discussion, please.

13. Thank you.

Cheers,
Kenneth KOH
 
OK - but the person they sell to for $500K or $600K - where do they get the money?

Maybe someone a little lower down the ladder with only 10yrs of PPOR ownership and a correspondingly smaller deposit, or someone on a smaller salary.


In reality there are many theories about why property grows faster than wages or inflation.... it doesn't really matter which one is right - maybe there's a bit of truth in many of them.


The bottom line is that all us IP investors are gettting rich & we're not really sure why... and you smart theorists think you know why we shouldn't be getting rich, but aren't getting rich yourselves....ironic isn't it ?:)

To paraphase...whether you think you can get rich with IP or you think you can't, you're probably right.
 
Lets not forget that wages are on the way up, and overall, people are much more investor savvy these days so will have access from share funds, IP and savings...the question should be, will rental yields keep increasing only at the rate of inflation or with wage increases? I know we are experiencing strong rental growth right now, but surely when in 10 years the average house is 1mil in the major cities, will the rent be up there too???:confused:
 
The bottom line is that all us IP investors are gettting rich & we're not really sure why... and you smart theorists think you know why we shouldn't be getting rich, but aren't getting rich yourselves....
Ha! :):) Fair call - but what would there be to talk about if we didn't question this stuff!!??
 
There is a lot of demand within me for a red ferrari ... but for some reason it doesn't appear.
Just have to ask the question Y-M,now that the new year is in place what do you intend to invest in this year,what are your plans and when will you jump back on the real estate bus,or take a punt in the ASX as it slides or Runs above the 7000 mark..wilair..
 
The bottom line is that all us IP investors are gettting rich & we're not really sure why... and you smart theorists think you know why we shouldn't be getting rich, but aren't getting rich yourselves....ironic isn't it ?:)

Interesting assumption that those not in property don't get rich. I will probably invest in property one day, but I don't think doing it now suits my current position. That's a personal choice. I also find it interesting that people invest in something without understanding why they are doing it, a bit of blind faith in recent history repeating seems to be required.

Back onto the topic though, I agree that a superstar city scenario may effect long term trends and help prices remain above the historic inflation based trend. But this isn't likely to happen in the next 3 years. So we will really need to find another reason why the next boom will be bigger then the last.
 
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Interesting assumption that those not in property don't get rich. I will probably invest in property one day, but I don't think doing it now suits my current position. That's a personal choice.
Hi FHB,

No.... I certainly didn't make that assumption. You didn't quote my subsequent line which put that sentence into context ....

keithj said:
whether you think you can get rich with IP or you think you can't, you're probably right.

There are 100's of ways to get rich. It gets a bit wearing when the same old theories are completely at odds with the evidence of the last century.


I also find it interesting that people invest in something without understanding why they are doing it, a bit of blind faith in history repeating seems to be required.
The point I made (and was made earlier in the thread), was that there are many possible theories why property always goes up on average..... no-one really knows whose theory is right. But it's likely that one or more of them are right, because the effects that we are seeing supports the various hypotheses ? There's a saying in the stock market - you don't have to be right, you just have to make money.

To put a different argument forward - I have only the vaguest about how a jet engine works, but it doesn't stop me from flying. But based on past history.....


What do you believe ? Do you believe property will go down for the next 100 years to revert to the really long term mean ? What is your theory of house prices for the next 10 or 20 years ? Look at it from the opposite POV - how can house prices NOT rise faster than inflation ? Your mindset will determine your actions. Most here at SS have a mindset that happens to make them rich.

Have a great life,

Keith
 
Why the next boom will be bigger than the last one...

So we will really need to find another reason why the next boom will be bigger then the last.


Why the next boom will be bigger than the last one...


The Australia-wide Boom

- Falling interest rates in late 2008

- Bearish stock market to drive investors into property

- High overseas immigration

- Trend towards fewer persons per household

- Already very high current pent-up demand for housing

- Not enough new houses being built

- Australian median prices still very low compared to many other countries

- Skyrocketing rents encourage investors back to property

- Banks to promote Shared Equity Mortgages, 40-year Mortgages, Generational Mortgages

- Banks to offer 85% LVR without LMI, as Westpac currently allow (possibly)

- Legislation changes allowing Superannuation to more easily invest in property (possibly)

- Legislation changes allowing negative gearing of PPOR, similar to USA (possibly)


The Sydney Boom Especially

- Geographic expansion constraints (Ocean/Mountains/National Park bordering Sydney)

- Resistance to high-density development

- Prices set to rise after past 4-5 years of falling prices and stagnation

- Current Sydney median historically too low compared to other Australian cities

- NSW economy starting to pick up again

- Reversal of the current internal migration trend from NSW to other States

- Top-end already booming - ripple down effect will spread throughout Sydney


Cheers,

Shadow.
 
Hi FHB,
What do you believe ? Do you believe property will go down for the next 100 years to revert to the really long term mean ? What is your theory of house prices for the next 10 or 20 years ? Look at it from the opposite POV - how can house prices NOT rise faster than inflation ? Your mindset will determine your actions. Most here at SS have a mindset that happens to make them rich.

Have a great life,

Keith

Thanks keith, I actually really enjoyed your interview thread. You seem to have hit the right markets at the right time. I know there are other investors here who will tell me I can make money in any market at any time, but a bit like you I'm a lazy investor. I only timed it to get the shares bit right, and even then I didn't gear, unfortunately.

As far as what I think property will do for the next 100 years, I'm sure prices will double, and double and double again, but this thread is about what will happen in the next few years. If AMP are right, and prices grow at the rate of inflation for 10 years we will hit the long term trend allowing for inflation.

AUHousePriceChart6.gif


A definite possibility, I doubt prices will drop overall, unless things goes horribly wrong, in which case all asset classes are in trouble, the gold bugs might be happy.
 
The Australia-wide Boom

- Falling interest rates in late 2008

- Bearish stock market to drive investors into property

- High overseas immigration

- Trend towards fewer persons per household

- Already very high current pent-up demand for housing

- Not enough new houses being built

- Australian median prices still very low compared to many other countries

- Skyrocketing rents encourage investors back to property

- Banks to promote Shared Equity Mortgages, 40-year Mortgages, Generational Mortgages

- Banks to offer 85% LVR without LMI, as Westpac currently allow (possibly)

- Legislation changes allowing Superannuation to more easily invest in property (possibly)

- Legislation changes allowing negative gearing of PPOR, similar to USA (possibly)

Thanks Shadow, so we will have falling interest rates, investors moving back to property for a few reasons, immigration, low supply, high demand, and changes to financing.

If we do get property prices stagnating or falling back over the next couple years and rents continuing to increase, I agree there will be plenty of investors looking to come back.

I'd be concerned about the falling interest rates being in response to dropping growth and increasing unemployment, this may prevent OOs from paying more, and may impact demand. And if this is the case, immigration of skilled workers may take a hit too. All hard to predict accurately.
 
Oh forgot to answer this bit:

Look at it from the opposite POV - how can house prices NOT rise faster than inflation ?

Rising unemployment combined with high inflation have historically mirrored these negative real growth events, and seen affordability restored to long term trends. So I think any correction back to the long term trend will require people losing their jobs. When will that happen? NFI!
 
I know there are other investors here who will tell me I can make money in any market at any time, but a bit like you I'm a lazy investor.
Hi FHB,

Yep, you can make money at any time.... but it requires a lot more effort at certain times - almost to the point of being a business (some would say an all consuming passion:cool:) rather than an investment strategy. 80/20 rule works for me too:).

As far as what I think property will do for the next 100 years, I'm sure prices will double, and double and double again, but this thread is about what will happen in the next few years. If AMP are right, and prices grow at the rate of inflation for 10 years we will hit the long term trend allowing for inflation.

...

A definite possibility, I doubt prices will drop overall, unless things goes horribly wrong, in which case all asset classes are in trouble, the gold bugs might be happy.
It comes down to timing. Most here practice the Somers methodology buy when you can afford it - they don't care much about timing, yields or the short term. OTOH most of the current IP detractors have a different timeframe in mind - they actually do believe property is a great investment, but its just that now isn't the best time to start. I too doubt that prices will drop overall - however, rents, wages, pop growth, inflation, credit availabilty, govt policy, etc will change & those are what will make it a great time to start. And those things usually creep up on people, so 'suddenly' IP looks attractive even though prices (which make the headlines) haven't changed much.

Cheers Keith
 
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