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remember you dont break even until sufficient time passes after your fixed rate is under the variable rate, to make up for all the months so far that you've been paying extra above the variable for that fixed rate. a lot of people think they 'break even' as soon as the variable rates exceed...

before todays figures id have penciled in another 0.25% before xmas, but with unemployment etc down, im looking at 0.5% total by end of year