I went for 0.75%.
I picked the 0.25% this month that most weren't considering. I think they'll go 50bp in November and another 25bp in December.
All up will see 100bp (1%) rise back to 4% rate by Christmas. Discounted variable rates around 6%. I did think they'd hold off at lower rates but everything I read from Glenn Stevens now suggests a race back to Neutral. At a minimum, we'll see 25bp and the high probability outcome is 50bp, but I'm going out on a limb and calling 75bp.
Lets see what happens...
Cheers,
Michael
I picked the 0.25% this month that most weren't considering. I think they'll go 50bp in November and another 25bp in December.
All up will see 100bp (1%) rise back to 4% rate by Christmas. Discounted variable rates around 6%. I did think they'd hold off at lower rates but everything I read from Glenn Stevens now suggests a race back to Neutral. At a minimum, we'll see 25bp and the high probability outcome is 50bp, but I'm going out on a limb and calling 75bp.
Lets see what happens...
Cheers,
Michael