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Interestingly some of the bears have lost as much as the bulls in this market : http://stumblingandmumbling.typepad.com/st...nstability.html Anglo-American Outperformance The Anglo-American economies are outperforming in the current global economic downturn, as Chris Dillow observes...

It is quite interesting that whatever brought an end to the great depression is not well understood http://www.independent.org/pdf/tir/tir_12_02_02_steindl.pdf An interesting article on what leverage is more broadly The economic collapse of Japan and the Phoenix Suns Tyler Cowen Most...

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Dodging-the-deflationary-trap-$pd20090218-PCRDG?OpenDocument The economies of Japan, Latvia, Iceland, Ireland and possibly Spain are in free fall – what might be called a technical depression (10 per cent contraction of GDP). The UK appears...

What I find most interesting is the idea that the situation in the US is not anything like in Japan in the 90's, when their own central bankers are saying publicly that this is what they are extremely worried about happening in the US !!! Overnight, the president of the St Louis Federal...

Wow, that is breathtaking, Japan’s fourth quarter GDP shrank by 3.3%, or an annual rate of -12.7%. If depression is defined as a 10% fall in GDP then they may get there in 2009. Despite their problems they are still the second biggest country in the world by GDP. Last week the managing...

Induction is a great thing. I think what blows people out is that they underestimate volatility (in prices, interest rates and other variables) during a cycle and that things can take a lot longer in either direction than anyone had thought was possible. Also I think it is important to be aware...

Marc, I think it is assumed by everyone that GDP numbers are reported as an annualised rate. The rate of change is from 4% growth to -4% (worse really with inventory). What I am saying is that is a big change in a year, and it is quite plausible that at this rate the US economy will contract...

GDP contraction in US Q4 was 4% but take out inventory pileup and it would have been -5.8%. Which is huge. Their economy is falling off a cliff and -20% to -30% over the next 4 years would not be surprising. I suspect the australian economy is lagged but will do the same. So does the government...

It is interesting to see that almost everyone (media and politicians) is saying that this is not going to be like the great depression when actually there is an amazing amount of simmilarity between the current situation and the 1930's. Like in that era, there was a big increase in household and...