50% rent increase within 5yrs

Channel 10s first story tonight was the rental squeeze in sydney and said "experts" say that rents will increase by 50 % within 5 yrs..........

What do you think?

Big Tone
 
Want to hear something scary?

We hit CPI of 1.5% last quarter. If that inflation rate holds constant rents could go up 34% in the next 5 years and not increase in real terms.

A 16% real increase sounds a bit weak.
 
Sounds optimistic in light of recent strong rental growth, but I hope they're right.

In today's Fin, BIS were reported as forecasting 11 % annual rental rises in Sydney for the next three years. So that's along the same lines as Ch 10's story.

Might be time for some rent reviews for my Sydney IP's me thinks :rolleyes:
 
That's about 8.5% increase per year over the 5yrs. Not that far out of the realm of possibility if supply remains tight.
 
There's an article in this months API that says average rents are currently 23% of average earnings. Therefore, if 30% of average earnings is considered affordable, there should be no problem with rents rising by 30% over the next few years.

PS no source provided for the figures.
 
Under the NRAS, investors who built new rental accommodation and leased it to low and moderate income earners at 20 per cent below market rents would receive an annual $6,000 rental tax incentive per dwelling for up to 10 years.

In addition, the state government would contribute a further $2,000 per dwelling.
http://www.wabusinessnews.com.au/en-story/1/64953/Tax-incentive-for-landlords-

Now I'm sure the rents will go up by at least another 20% over the next few months. :D
 
Yesterday Plibersek launched the NRAS (National Rental Affordability Scheme).

I'm yet to find out all the detail but from my understanding if Developers/Investors produce dwellings that rent for 20% below market value then they will get a one off payment of $8,000 per dwelling.

Comparing this to a 50% increase in rent, I'm not sure I would want the $8,000.
 
Yesterday Plibersek launched the NRAS (National Rental Affordability Scheme).

I'm yet to find out all the detail but from my understanding if Developers/Investors produce dwellings that rent for 20% below market value then they will get a one off payment of $8,000 per dwelling.

Comparing this to a 50% increase in rent, I'm not sure I would want the $8,000.

Not to mention you'd lose control of your rental as it becomes part of another govt. welfare scheme. Plus God forbid you'd need to sell mid way through the agreement, it'd be like a defence home - very restricted pool of buyers.
 
Yesterday Plibersek launched the NRAS (National Rental Affordability Scheme).

I'm yet to find out all the detail but from my understanding if Developers/Investors produce dwellings that rent for 20% below market value then they will get a one off payment of $8,000 per dwelling.

Comparing this to a 50% increase in rent, I'm not sure I would want the $8,000.

Its for institutions not private investors. And its looking like a big flop. From what I hear none of the institutions are interested. Particularly not in this market.

Of course I could be wrong. But I havent seen any handshaking or ribbon cutting in the media.
 
BT,

I have an application before council at present for 78 units, when approved I believe the majority of these units will be sold to investors and as such will become rental properties.

The area I am building these dose not have a lot of units and as such the average rental of these units will be below what the average is for the suburb.

Will this project qualify? How dose anyone accurately determine what the average rental is for any suburb?

If it's only for institutions, it sounds like mates rates to me.

I have certainly lost a significant amount of potential profit through the approval stage and any compensation for this would be welcomed instead of me just passing these costs onto the new buyers.

I spend a significant amount of time with other developers, town planners, engineers and other property consultants.

If any of these consultants including myself where asked:

How do we get more rental homes into the market place at a lower cost?

I'm sure the general answer would be: Remove the road blocks local council have put in place and streamline the approval stage.

We are all trying to produce lower cost housing, it sells easier, it's lower risk and easy to build. But when a code assessable application takes 2 years to get approved, with significant design changes and reduction in yields then $8,000 per house looks like chicken fee compared to the loss in profits.

I'm not surprised there has been no ribbon cutting.
 
I see no reason to argue with a 50% rise in overall rents within 5 years.

Weve had a 40% rise in 2 years here in Darwin and theres no 'real' undersupply in the market.
 
Mark

Couldnt agree more with you.

I didnt appreciate the scale of your development - thats more "institutional" size than what most people on here are doing.

Regarding the National Rental Affordability Scheme:

Calls for Applications
Establishment Phase (1 July 2008-30 June 2010)

There will be two Calls for Applications for incentives in the Establishment Phase. The first Call for Applications, Round 1, is now open until 4 September 2008.

http://www.facsia.gov.au/internet/facsinternet.nsf/housing/nras.htm

National Mandatory Requirements
1. dwellings will be rented to 'eligible tenants'
2. dwellings will be rented for a period of 10 years
3. dwellings will be rented at a rate that is at least 20 per cent below the market rate
4. dwellings must either:
a. not have previously been occupied; or
b. not have been previously zoned for residential purposes; or
c. have been made fit for occupancy where otherwise the dwelling was 'recognised' as being uninhabitable; or
d. have been subdivided to produce more dwellings than were previously available on the identified block and section
5. dwellings will comply with State, Territory and local government, planning building codes and requirements.


Weighted Criteria
1. There is a demonstrated need for the Proposal
Proposals must demonstrate the need for projects in specific locations and how this need has been identified. For example, proposals may point to high levels of unmet rental demand in project areas, lower than average vacancy rates, the proportion of households in rental stress or the types of households in rental stress.

2. The proposal addresses the Priority Areas of Interest
Proposals must provide details about the extent to which the projects address the Priority Areas of Interest identified in the Call for Applications. Further information on Priority Areas of Interest is discussed below.

3. The proposal delivers accessibility and sustainability outcomes
Proposals must show how projects contribute to accessibility and sustainability outcomes such as:
Proximity of dwellings to transport, schools, shops, health services and employment opportunities
Types of dwellings and proposed household compositions to facilitate a balanced social mix
Building and design features that may reduce overall costs for tenants, for example, measures that improve energy or water efficiency
Use of universal design principles or other low cost measures that would make properties more accessible to people who are ageing or live with disabilities

4. The Consortium has demonstrated capacity and experience
Proposals must demonstrate the capacity of the consortium or organisation to deliver the Project(s), including:
Experience in property acquisition and development
Experience in property and tenancy management and details of how these will be delivered under the Proposal
Proposed processes for tenant selection and rent setting
Proposed governance and management arrangements for the Proposal
Financial capacity including details of capacity to contribute equity to a project, details of proposal to raise any debt financing required to fund project capital requirements

5. The proposal is financially viable
Proposals must detail:
the cost and financing arrangements, and details of any additional grant funding being sought/received from State/Territory and Commonwealth governments outside NRAS
the proposal's financial sustainability (projected cash flow analysis that estimates the cost of constructing/developing the properties, rent revenue and operating costs)
planning, development and construction status of the Projects in the Proposal

Link to prospectus: http://www.facsia.gov.au/internet/facsinternet.nsf/housing/nras_prospectus.htm

You may wish to carefully consider what constitutes "eligible tenants". I dont know what your demographic profile is but I have my doubts as to whether this would be the sort of thing that would suit your needs.

Furthermore, considering all the hoops that have to be jumped through and the restrictions on dealing with the property I dont see that it offers a commensurate financial return. The benefits are:

A Commonwealth Government incentive of $6,000 per dwelling per year refundable tax offset or payment; and
A State or Territory Government incentive of $2,000 per dwelling per year in direct or in kind financial support.

On 72 units over 10 years thats $5.6 million in tax offsets or payments (I think its probably important to figure out which of those it is....). Its a pretty tight straightjacket for 5 million....

Of course the banks need to be happy about it as well - and they seem to have developed an allergy to subprime housing lately.

Cheers
 
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