"A Bear Defection" What do you make of this?

[BoatBoy]

Cant post links unfortunately (email) but will post snippets here for comment.

I'm sure some others here will have received this as well so they may like to add bits as they choose.

A Bear Defection

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The Daily Reckoning Australia

Waterford, Ireland - Melbourne, Australia [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] Friday, 17 July 2009 [/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]----------------------------------[/FONT]​

From Dan Denning at the Old Hat Factory:

--Good news everyone! The end of the world has been postponed indefinitely. You may now carry on as if another credit bubble is blowing (which it is, in China).

--It's a truly bullish way to wrap up the week. China has reported a 7.9% rise second in quarter GDP, driven mostly by a 15% surge in June consumption and a huge boom in bank lending and government stimulus. Aussie stocks felt the warm glow and rallied just below 4,000 on the ASX/200 yesterday. Aussie stocks are now up nearly 7% for the week.

--But the even better news from the bullish camp is that perma-bear Nouriel Roubini has defected! Yes, Roubini told a conference that the "free fall" in financial losses is over and the U.S. may exit its recession by the end of the year. This was enough sweet talk to send the Dow up nearly one percent.

I've never been one for the DR, but it does seem to be a bit of a turn a round for Dan.

 

[yorke]

Cant post links unfortunately (email) but will post snippets here for comment.

hehehe, so YOU are the other subscriber to his newsletter.

I've never been one for the DR, but it does seem to be a bit of a turn a round for Dan.

If you are talking about Flip-Flop Dan, the Dan that I'm thinking about, he only started to get bearish on property after he sold most of his properties and was looking to buy again.

 

[WinstonWolfe]

I've never been one for the DR, but it does seem to be a bit of a turn a round for Dan.

I've noted DD getting a little slack in his interpretation of what he reads recently.

Take as example, his latest interpretation of Roubini.....Roubini has not changed his view. He has consistently said the US recession would last 2 years, which is up early 2010, from which Roubini has consistently said a recovery would begin, though a L shaped one.

 

[BoatBoy]

Take as example, his latest interpretation of Roubini.....Roubini has not changed his view. He has consistently said the US recession would last 2 years, which is up early 2010, from which Roubini has consistently said a recovery would begin, though a L shaped one.

Is that like a U shaped one?

I suppose the end of 2009 or beginning of 2010 are close enough, I think the important message is things are looking not as bad as some thought.

Another email (I haven't quoted it all due to copyright)

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

July 16, 2009

STATEMENT ON U.S. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK BY DR. NOURIEL ROUBINI


The following is a statement from Dr. Nouriel Roubini, Chairman of RGE Monitor and Professor, New York University, Stern School of Business:


“It has been widely reported today that I have stated that the recession will be over “this year” and that I have “improved” my economic outlook. Despite those reports - however – my views expressed today are no different than the views I have expressed previously. If anything my views were taken out of context.

“I have said on numerous occasions that the recession would last roughly 24 months. Therefore, we are 19 months into that recession. If as I predicted the recession is over by year end, it will have lasted 24 months with a recovery only beginning in 2010. Simply put I am not forecasting economic growth before year’s end.

“Indeed, last year I argued that this will be a long and deep and protracted U-shaped recession that would last 24 months. Meanwhile, the consensus argued that this would be a short and shallow V-shaped 8 months long recession (like those in 1990-91 and 2001). That debate is over today as we are in the 19th month of a severe recession; so the V is out of the window and we are in a deep U-shaped recession. If that recession were to be over by year end – as I have consistently predicted – it would have lasted 24 months and thus been three times longer than the previous two and five times deeper – in terms of cumulative GDP contraction – than the previous two. So, there is nothing new in my remarks today about the recession being over at the end of this year.

“I have also consistently argued – including in my remarks today - that while the consensus predicts that the US economy will go back close to potential growth by next year, I see instead a shallow, below-par and below-trend recovery where growth will average about 1% in the next couple of years when potential is probably closer to 2.75%.

Like I said, I don't read much of DD's stuff, always found it a bit gloomy with a strange sort of attitude.