Interesting read.
ASTROLOGER PREDICTS PROPERTY PRICES
He's got a good record of success.
He's one of the top ten astrologers in the world. Millions of people know
the beaming smile of Milton Black. But thousands of property investors will
be frowning at his prediction for real estate prices.
Just as economists study the figures and report their findings, Milton
studies the stars and does the same. And, because Saturn ? which is the
planet of limitation ? has now entered the sign of Cancer and is going to
stay there until July 17, 2005, this means property prices will fall by up
to 20 per cent.
If that's a bit complicated, then basically what he means is this: Don't
invest in property until prices start to fall.
Astrologers are braver than economists, which is great for the true
believers. You get dates. And Milton is predicting panic selling towards
the end of 2003 and into 2004. He wants you to delay your buying decision
until at least February 2004.
Milton's predictions were revealed earlier this year. One has already come
true. He forecast "rent wars" as landlords struggled to find tenants. The
cannon fire has already started. Tenants are being offered amazing deals as
landlords battle to fill vacant properties.
With thousands of investors lip deep in debt, they'll be hoping this is one
star-gazer who has got it wrong.
They don't have to wait long to see if he's right.
PRICES PLUNGE
Residential property prices seem to be in free-fall.
The often-repeated industry lie - that home values always rise - is exposed
by the latest data released today. The predicted soft landing seems to be
turning into a crash landing.
Data from Australian Property Monitors shows the median sale price for
Sydney homes (including both houses and units) fell almost 10% in December,
while in Melbourne values dropped 7%.
APM's Home Price Guide shows $64,000 was cut from the price of the typical
Sydney home in December, compared with the previous month. And auction
clearance rates were at their lowest levels in 12 years. The clearance rate
in the northern beaches region of Sydney plunged to less than 30% leading
up to the New Year.
The decline was most keenly felt with houses. In December the median house
price dropped $84,000 - from $780,000 to $696,250, a fall of 11%. Apartment
sellers also suffered with median sale prices falling from $510,000 to
$452,000.
This carnage has been repeated around the nation. Median prices fell in all
capital cities and Melbourne, Sydney and Perth all sold fewer than half of
properties put to auction.
In Melbourne, the median home price was $340,000 in December, down from
$367,000 in November.
The market decline is revealed in all kinds of statistics. Landlords in
leading holiday towns throughout NSW had to slash holiday rentals by up to
$1,300 a week to attract tenants in the recent festive season. Letting
agents reported "bargain basement prices" in areas such as the Central
Coast, Byron Bay and the Southern Highlands.
Major home builders say demand from home buyers halved in the latter part
of 2003, forcing them to offer incentive packages. The nation's largest
home unit developer, Meriton, predicts a 30% default rate in the settlement
of apartments bought off-the-plan.
The faltering real estate market has been created by a combination of
telling factors: rising interest rates, over-supply of inner-city units,
falling home affordability, new state laws in three states (NSW, Victoria
and South Australia) which have nobbled auction rorts, strong action by
federal authorities against real estate crooks, and action to close down
get-rich-quick seminars.
One wonders how the real estate spinners will rationalise the latest
damning figures. Before Christmas, the Real Estate Institute of NSW sought
to disguise bad news in a media release on market movements. The press
statement headed "Solid property performance during September Quarter"
focussed on the 1% rise in the median price for Sydney houses.
Buried in the data was evidence of a slowing market and the impact of
over-building. The median price for units across the Sydney market fell
1.3% - while inner-city unit prices dropped 5.3% in the quarter. Apartment
values fell in 14 of Sydney's municipalities.
This pre-dated the interest rate rise. The latest data from Home Price
Guide shows that the decline in unit values has accelerated since then.
Similar frailty was found in statistics from the Real Estate Institute of
Queensland. Median house prices fell in 29 Brisbane suburbs in the
September Quarter. Another eight suburbs showed no increase in prices.
On the Gold Coast, median house prices fell or stagnated in 15 suburbs,
including prestige markets such as Surfers Paradise, Mermaid Waters and
Burleigh Heads.
Caution is needed when dealing with median prices, particularly over short
time frames - such as comparing the September and June quarters.
But the figures disprove the industry myth that prices always rise
remorselessly.
Home buyers and investors should remember that during the 1990s, following
the last price boom, all capital cities had periods when prices fell, for
both houses and units.
This is happening again. Real estate is not merely coming off the boil - it
is entering a major freeze.
ASTROLOGER PREDICTS PROPERTY PRICES
He's got a good record of success.
He's one of the top ten astrologers in the world. Millions of people know
the beaming smile of Milton Black. But thousands of property investors will
be frowning at his prediction for real estate prices.
Just as economists study the figures and report their findings, Milton
studies the stars and does the same. And, because Saturn ? which is the
planet of limitation ? has now entered the sign of Cancer and is going to
stay there until July 17, 2005, this means property prices will fall by up
to 20 per cent.
If that's a bit complicated, then basically what he means is this: Don't
invest in property until prices start to fall.
Astrologers are braver than economists, which is great for the true
believers. You get dates. And Milton is predicting panic selling towards
the end of 2003 and into 2004. He wants you to delay your buying decision
until at least February 2004.
Milton's predictions were revealed earlier this year. One has already come
true. He forecast "rent wars" as landlords struggled to find tenants. The
cannon fire has already started. Tenants are being offered amazing deals as
landlords battle to fill vacant properties.
With thousands of investors lip deep in debt, they'll be hoping this is one
star-gazer who has got it wrong.
They don't have to wait long to see if he's right.
PRICES PLUNGE
Residential property prices seem to be in free-fall.
The often-repeated industry lie - that home values always rise - is exposed
by the latest data released today. The predicted soft landing seems to be
turning into a crash landing.
Data from Australian Property Monitors shows the median sale price for
Sydney homes (including both houses and units) fell almost 10% in December,
while in Melbourne values dropped 7%.
APM's Home Price Guide shows $64,000 was cut from the price of the typical
Sydney home in December, compared with the previous month. And auction
clearance rates were at their lowest levels in 12 years. The clearance rate
in the northern beaches region of Sydney plunged to less than 30% leading
up to the New Year.
The decline was most keenly felt with houses. In December the median house
price dropped $84,000 - from $780,000 to $696,250, a fall of 11%. Apartment
sellers also suffered with median sale prices falling from $510,000 to
$452,000.
This carnage has been repeated around the nation. Median prices fell in all
capital cities and Melbourne, Sydney and Perth all sold fewer than half of
properties put to auction.
In Melbourne, the median home price was $340,000 in December, down from
$367,000 in November.
The market decline is revealed in all kinds of statistics. Landlords in
leading holiday towns throughout NSW had to slash holiday rentals by up to
$1,300 a week to attract tenants in the recent festive season. Letting
agents reported "bargain basement prices" in areas such as the Central
Coast, Byron Bay and the Southern Highlands.
Major home builders say demand from home buyers halved in the latter part
of 2003, forcing them to offer incentive packages. The nation's largest
home unit developer, Meriton, predicts a 30% default rate in the settlement
of apartments bought off-the-plan.
The faltering real estate market has been created by a combination of
telling factors: rising interest rates, over-supply of inner-city units,
falling home affordability, new state laws in three states (NSW, Victoria
and South Australia) which have nobbled auction rorts, strong action by
federal authorities against real estate crooks, and action to close down
get-rich-quick seminars.
One wonders how the real estate spinners will rationalise the latest
damning figures. Before Christmas, the Real Estate Institute of NSW sought
to disguise bad news in a media release on market movements. The press
statement headed "Solid property performance during September Quarter"
focussed on the 1% rise in the median price for Sydney houses.
Buried in the data was evidence of a slowing market and the impact of
over-building. The median price for units across the Sydney market fell
1.3% - while inner-city unit prices dropped 5.3% in the quarter. Apartment
values fell in 14 of Sydney's municipalities.
This pre-dated the interest rate rise. The latest data from Home Price
Guide shows that the decline in unit values has accelerated since then.
Similar frailty was found in statistics from the Real Estate Institute of
Queensland. Median house prices fell in 29 Brisbane suburbs in the
September Quarter. Another eight suburbs showed no increase in prices.
On the Gold Coast, median house prices fell or stagnated in 15 suburbs,
including prestige markets such as Surfers Paradise, Mermaid Waters and
Burleigh Heads.
Caution is needed when dealing with median prices, particularly over short
time frames - such as comparing the September and June quarters.
But the figures disprove the industry myth that prices always rise
remorselessly.
Home buyers and investors should remember that during the 1990s, following
the last price boom, all capital cities had periods when prices fell, for
both houses and units.
This is happening again. Real estate is not merely coming off the boil - it
is entering a major freeze.
