ASX good value?
- Thread starter Pom
- Start date
Bad attitude.Why would you ask property investors about shares?
Because they also invest in shares
NAB purchased mid February 2012 $22.86. Close 23 March $24.35 = 7%
ANZ purchased mid January 2012 $20.60. Close 23 March $22.74 = 10.5%
Not setting the world on fire but not bad in a month or two.
No - your statement was generic and didn't seem directed at anyone in particular.
Its an open forum and i'll post what I like when I like.
Sorry your bank crash fantasy hasn't worked out for you.
Deal with it.
Nothing. Whats wrong with someone else giving examples with dates as well?
I suggest you re-read the thread.
Sunfish: ASX has underperformed Dow due to big 4 banks and 2 x resource stocks.
Redwing: Quotes bank stocks and resource stocks he has invested in showing good returns.
Sunfish: Means nothing without dates.
Pom: Quotes recent bank purchases dates and returns.
Sunfish: Throws toys from pram.
Hows that out of context and irrelevant?
Most Property Investors knew upfront 2 days after the floods they were on their own like myself,but you would only understand that if you went through it and saw the water come up,and go down,then get not get one cent from anyone,but experience is not what happens to you,it's what you do with what has happened to you..Queenslander..Good luck with Liberals. I'm happy - next time you guys get flooded out, you are on your own. Laisez faire, thats what I say. Why should someone intelligent enough not to live in Queensland pay for the stupidity of others?
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Sunfish is right with regards to timeframes, they are indeed applicable;
It also depends on how much you have invested 10% of $1000.00 is much different to 10% of $10,000.00 or even $100,000.00
Buying Commonwealth (CBA) shares in 2009 at $24.00 looks great when they are at $49.00 in 2012, but it’s been a bumpy ride along the way including a high of around $59.00
CBA as a case in point is a stock I’ve added to a number of times along the way, dividends have been re-invested and I’ve hardly looked at it, other than when I think it’s a good buying opportunity
Westpac (WBC) has also been good to me with buying and selling.
Other shares have been bought and sold along the journey, however E-Trade can also get confusing when just looking at the current portfolio and to my chagrin, I don’t keep a great detailed log beyond what they provide, though I know I should
As an example I purchased Atlas Iron (AGO) at $1.42 in 2009 and when they doubled I sold half and let the profits run. Recently in Dec 2012 I purchased another much larger parcel at $2.83 and then sold at $3.13 making a quick 13% gain.
I think of it in the above manner, however E-Trade shows the $2.83 cost basis, Dec date acquired and the current price of $2.88 which is only 3% gain on that basis, rather than 102% on $1.42 which is my viewpoint. I’ve taken my 13% and my account looks better for it
FMG has been another regular buy-sell share
My first purchase of AGO was at around $0.76 (I'm not sure who else was talking about it on SS at the time, maybe KPH?) and I again sold out much later at a profit, however that was with another trading account
RMI on the other hand was a speccy I took a hit with, as was Thunderlarra some time back
Shares keep me entertained and I expect them to do so in future retirement years
From Marcus Padley
Source
PS: I noticed the thread went off track for a bit, hopefully we're back on board
It also depends on how much you have invested 10% of $1000.00 is much different to 10% of $10,000.00 or even $100,000.00
Buying Commonwealth (CBA) shares in 2009 at $24.00 looks great when they are at $49.00 in 2012, but it’s been a bumpy ride along the way including a high of around $59.00
CBA as a case in point is a stock I’ve added to a number of times along the way, dividends have been re-invested and I’ve hardly looked at it, other than when I think it’s a good buying opportunity
Westpac (WBC) has also been good to me with buying and selling.
Other shares have been bought and sold along the journey, however E-Trade can also get confusing when just looking at the current portfolio and to my chagrin, I don’t keep a great detailed log beyond what they provide, though I know I should
As an example I purchased Atlas Iron (AGO) at $1.42 in 2009 and when they doubled I sold half and let the profits run. Recently in Dec 2012 I purchased another much larger parcel at $2.83 and then sold at $3.13 making a quick 13% gain.
I think of it in the above manner, however E-Trade shows the $2.83 cost basis, Dec date acquired and the current price of $2.88 which is only 3% gain on that basis, rather than 102% on $1.42 which is my viewpoint. I’ve taken my 13% and my account looks better for it
FMG has been another regular buy-sell share
My first purchase of AGO was at around $0.76 (I'm not sure who else was talking about it on SS at the time, maybe KPH?) and I again sold out much later at a profit, however that was with another trading account
RMI on the other hand was a speccy I took a hit with, as was Thunderlarra some time back
Shares keep me entertained and I expect them to do so in future retirement years
From Marcus Padley
Source
PS: I noticed the thread went off track for a bit, hopefully we're back on board
Attachments
Re: Marcus Padley Re: Buy and hold.
the answer lies in the nature of the underlying market:
A Crucial Conversation - "It's a Bull Market"
Listening to the (repeated daily) advice of an old stager in the offices of Fullerton, it suddenly dawned on him why he was making less profit than he should. Whatever question the old fellow - known to everyone as Turkey although his real name was Partridge - was asked about the market, he would reply, "well, it's a bull market".
At first Livermore thought this was a mere platitude. Hearing "It's a Bull Market" daily, he began thinking about it more. Then, listening to a conversation between Turkey and Elmer Harwood - a young trader - he realized that it was more than a platitude - it was the missing piece in his own education.
Elmer: "Mr. Partridge, I have just sold my Climax Motors. My people say the market is entitled to a reaction and that I'll be able to buy it back cheaper. So you'd better do likewise. That is, if you've still got yours."
Turkey: "Yes, Mr. Harwood, I still have it. Of course!"
Elmer: "Well, now is the time to take your profit and get in again on the next dip," said Elmer, "I have just sold every share I owned!"
Turkey: "No! No! I can't do that!"
Elmer: "Didn't I give you the tip to buy it?"
Turkey: "You did, Mr. Harwood, and I am very grateful to you.
Elmer: And didn't that stock go up seven points in ten days? Didn't it?"
Turkey: "It did, and I am much obliged to you, my dear boy. But I couldn't think of selling that stock."
Elmer: "Why not?"
Turkey: "Why, this is a bull market!"
(The old fellow said it as though he had given a detailed explanation.)
Elmer: "I know this is a bull market as well as you do. But you'd better slip them that stock of yours and buy it back on the reaction. You might as well reduce the cost to yourself."
Turkey: "My dear boy, if I sold that stock now I'd lose my position; and then where would I be? And when you are as old as I am and you've been through as many booms and panics as I have, you'll know that to lose your position is something nobody can afford; not even John D. Rockefeller. I hope the stock reacts and that you will be able to repurchase your line at a substantial concession, sir. But I myself can only trade in accordance with the experience of many years. I paid a high price for it and I don't feel like throwing away a second tuition fee. But I am as much obliged to you as if I had the money in the bank. It's a bull market, you know."
Jesse Livermore realized that Turkey's consistent message was that the big money was to be made not in trying to trade small moves on the tape but to catch the major trend.
"Nobody can catch all the fluctuations. In a bull market your game is to buy and hold until you believe that the bull market is near its end. To do this you must study general conditions and not tips or special factors affecting individual stocks. Then get out of all your stocks; get out for keeps! You have to use your brains and your vision to do this; otherwise my advice would be as idiotic as to tell you to buy cheap and sell dear. One of the most helpful things that anybody can learn is to give up trying to catch the last eighth-or the first. These two are the most expensive eighths in the world."
the answer lies in the nature of the underlying market:
A Crucial Conversation - "It's a Bull Market"
Listening to the (repeated daily) advice of an old stager in the offices of Fullerton, it suddenly dawned on him why he was making less profit than he should. Whatever question the old fellow - known to everyone as Turkey although his real name was Partridge - was asked about the market, he would reply, "well, it's a bull market".
At first Livermore thought this was a mere platitude. Hearing "It's a Bull Market" daily, he began thinking about it more. Then, listening to a conversation between Turkey and Elmer Harwood - a young trader - he realized that it was more than a platitude - it was the missing piece in his own education.
Elmer: "Mr. Partridge, I have just sold my Climax Motors. My people say the market is entitled to a reaction and that I'll be able to buy it back cheaper. So you'd better do likewise. That is, if you've still got yours."
Turkey: "Yes, Mr. Harwood, I still have it. Of course!"
Elmer: "Well, now is the time to take your profit and get in again on the next dip," said Elmer, "I have just sold every share I owned!"
Turkey: "No! No! I can't do that!"
Elmer: "Didn't I give you the tip to buy it?"
Turkey: "You did, Mr. Harwood, and I am very grateful to you.
Elmer: And didn't that stock go up seven points in ten days? Didn't it?"
Turkey: "It did, and I am much obliged to you, my dear boy. But I couldn't think of selling that stock."
Elmer: "Why not?"
Turkey: "Why, this is a bull market!"
(The old fellow said it as though he had given a detailed explanation.)
Elmer: "I know this is a bull market as well as you do. But you'd better slip them that stock of yours and buy it back on the reaction. You might as well reduce the cost to yourself."
Turkey: "My dear boy, if I sold that stock now I'd lose my position; and then where would I be? And when you are as old as I am and you've been through as many booms and panics as I have, you'll know that to lose your position is something nobody can afford; not even John D. Rockefeller. I hope the stock reacts and that you will be able to repurchase your line at a substantial concession, sir. But I myself can only trade in accordance with the experience of many years. I paid a high price for it and I don't feel like throwing away a second tuition fee. But I am as much obliged to you as if I had the money in the bank. It's a bull market, you know."
Jesse Livermore realized that Turkey's consistent message was that the big money was to be made not in trying to trade small moves on the tape but to catch the major trend.
"Nobody can catch all the fluctuations. In a bull market your game is to buy and hold until you believe that the bull market is near its end. To do this you must study general conditions and not tips or special factors affecting individual stocks. Then get out of all your stocks; get out for keeps! You have to use your brains and your vision to do this; otherwise my advice would be as idiotic as to tell you to buy cheap and sell dear. One of the most helpful things that anybody can learn is to give up trying to catch the last eighth-or the first. These two are the most expensive eighths in the world."
Last time I looked we are not in a bull market. In fact six stocks make up 50% of the ASX [heard it said tonight] and that six are drifting since their relative recovery from the '08 crash.
The "market" has held fairly steady though, so there must be a bull market somewhere else. That's in the small end of town and that is not the place for buy'n'hold.
Livermore would love this market but Buffett is struggling on a % basis.
The "market" has held fairly steady though, so there must be a bull market somewhere else. That's in the small end of town and that is not the place for buy'n'hold.
Livermore would love this market but Buffett is struggling on a % basis.
exactly Sunfish, which is why there is no current need for a whole of the index 'buy and hold' approach (unless one is talking superannuation with a time horizon of 10yrs+).
there is a time for a 'blind' buy and hold, now is not that time.
However with the market at its long term support level, with 'buyer interest' at decade lows, with investors 'average' cash holdings at multidecade highs, with PE ratio's being reasonable, with company debt levels under control, and with some fantastic dividends yields out there, it is very much a good time for individual stock picking (as you alluded to with livermore's reference).
there is a time for a 'blind' buy and hold, now is not that time.
However with the market at its long term support level, with 'buyer interest' at decade lows, with investors 'average' cash holdings at multidecade highs, with PE ratio's being reasonable, with company debt levels under control, and with some fantastic dividends yields out there, it is very much a good time for individual stock picking (as you alluded to with livermore's reference).
I beg to differ Sunfish. Buffett prefers markets where valuations are attractive and that happens only during bear markets and/or sideways tracking markets. As long as the businesses are doing well but stock prices are going no where he loves it because that means he can buy more of the business.
I believe over the past 1 year he has invested more that $15Billion (IBM, Lubrizol and other), and that figure would be much higher if you take into account last 3-4 years.
His philosophy is to be patient, as long as the businesses are doing well the stock prices will follow over time. Even at 82years he still invests for the long term.
Cheers,
Oracle.
