Australia's Debt Ceiling

P.S Oh and it is not $43b it is $27b and spread over 5 or 6 years. Personally I think it will be the best money any government will ever spend, but I understand it takes a bit of faith to say that.

If you appreciated the relationship between credit, productivity, and consumption in developed economies; and understood where the world is in relation to the balance between these, you wouldn't be caught up in Labor's appalling ignorance of and preoccupation with minutiae like the NBN.

What the Left side of politics fails abysmally at, is risk management, and timing the economic cycle. Why? Because they don't understand the nature of credit, and they understand even less, productivity.

They particularly don't understand the necessity of govt expenditure requiring a boost to productivity. Hence why the trend to 2/3s fed govt expenditure going to welfare and health, the influence of which has been debatable at best on productivity.

Happy to be PROVEN wrong.
 
All of this has been debated and talked about when the Rudd government proposed FTTN and it was one of those things that if you are going to spend that much money you should go all the way because it won't save you that much more money and it would need upgrading down the track anyway. Look I understand everyone having doubts about Labor delivering on this but remember its not Labor building it it is a private consortium. Anyway this is getting off track a bit.

P.S Oh and it is not $43b it is $27b and spread over 5 or 6 years. Personally I think it will be the best money any government will ever spend, but I understand it takes a bit of faith to say that.

Having worked with NBN Co professionally, I can tell you that you REALLY should not be putting too much faith in the outcome. The design is inconsistent, and there's very limited accountability.
 
If you appreciated the relationship between credit, productivity, and consumption in developed economies; and understood where the world is in relation to the balance between these, you wouldn't be caught up in Labor's appalling ignorance of and preoccupation with minutiae like the NBN.

What the Left side of politics fails abysmally at, is risk management, and timing the economic cycle. Why? Because they don't understand the nature of credit, and they understand even less, productivity.

They particularly don't understand the necessity of govt expenditure requiring a boost to productivity. Hence why the trend to 2/3s fed govt expenditure going to welfare and health, the influence of which has been debatable at best on productivity.

Happy to be PROVEN wrong.

So Stefan how does the right side of politics know it better and how do you explain that Australia's productivity has tred water for the best part of a decade. Caught up with minutia like the NBN. Not sure what you are trying to say there. What the right side of politics doesn't understand is that spending or debt is not always bad. The infrastructure and neglect of human capital during the Howards years is a fine example. At one stage we called ourselves the 'clever country'. Not anymore and even less so if we ditch the NBN.
 
That may be true, but we dont know what the bandwidth requirements (residential and business) will be in 10 - 20 years time. Following Moore's Law they will be absolutely massive compared to now.

The problem is the incredible short term thinking of the anti NBN brigade. Imagine if people objected to building freeways (or any infrastructure that requires a bit of forward thinking) on the basis of cost.

Maybe thats the problem with the cost=benefit analysis, how can you foresee and calculate the benefit of 10-20 years ahead?

22
If you appreciated small to medium enterprises are not conducted from residential properties, then you'd understand why FTTH NBN deserves the bagging.
 
That may be true, but we dont know what the bandwidth requirements (residential and business) will be in 10 - 20 years time. Following Moore's Law they will be absolutely massive compared to now.

If the Left's best defence is Moore's Law, then God help us.

Bandwidth requirements will in no way be 'absolutely massive', if we go through 15 years of economic stagnation and throttled carbon emissions.

That's why understanding the role of credit, productivity, consumption, AND population growth, is imperative to such massive commitments of "FUTURE INCOME" as 43B.
 
So Stefan how does the right side of politics know it better and how do you explain that Australia's productivity has tred water for the best part of a decade. Caught up with minutia like the NBN. Not sure what you are trying to say there. What the right side of politics doesn't understand is that spending or debt is not always bad. The infrastructure and neglect of human capital during the Howards years is a fine example. At one stage we called ourselves the 'clever country'. Not anymore and even less so if we ditch the NBN.

I affirmed above governments should spend, but in a manner that does not reduce the productivity that services govt expenditure.
 
I used buying a house as a simplistic example for the masses to explain a point I think is obvious.

If you dont like my example of a house then how about a large multi-national company - take your pick.

Virtually none will have debt levels as low as Australia.

The problem is people are being guided by notions rather than economic understanding. They think wow we spent 50 billion? that must be bad..

The truth is debt is never bad in isolation, what we spend it on is were the problem usually lies.

The problem this government had was the GFC. The overwhelming majority of economists agreed on a stimulus package - this is just fact regardless of ones political views.

Now should we have dished out thousand dollar cheques to everyone? Well in a way yes, buying plasma tv's was pretty much the reason why they were given out i.e. to stimulate the economy, retail, construction etc...

Could the Libs have done a better job, perhaps but really this is largely academic now but the fact is that they would have done fundamentally the same.

I've written about that many times....buying a house and being a passive residential Landlord has absolutely no bearing whatsoever when compared with economically managing an entire country's affairs.


Trying to simplify the complexities of running a nation down to passively investing in one house is non-sensical. Anyone who tries to draw a parallel between buying one house and running a nation is, IMO, not looking at the scenario in a reasonable way.


The answer to your "why" question could go on for 100 pages.
 
If you dont like my example of a house then how about a large multi-national company - take your pick.

Virtually none will have debt levels as low as Australia.

And why that is is a mystery to Lefties.

A multinational has multiple avenues to grow or defend net profit by
- bringing new and better product to market
- expanding markets internationally
- changing the margin/volume mix to increase revenues
- cutting overheads
- cutting staff in lieu of automation or manufacturing offshore
- selling off or killing under performing divisions
- up/down size debt to exploit tax law or investor expectations.

It is naive to think a Socialist Govt committed to a 'fairer go for all' has the same options.

Lefties forget that the private sector has to increase productivity when the public sector wants to aggrandise itself with ever more generous acts of do goodness.
 
? Huh??!??!

let me make my post even clearer to you so that you dont descend again into incoherent political dogma..

If you dont like my example of house.. or multi-national company then pick ANY OTHER BLOODY COUNTRY IN THE WORLD to compare us with regarding debt.

Or are they all lefty tree huggers too? How did one of the most right wing governments fair for the US? How'd that little experiment go? good?

Seriously move away from seeing the world as if its black and white because if your understanding of left leaning governments is one that racks up debt, wastes money and likes big government then George W Bush leans further left than Bob Brown.

There are good governments and there are bad ones... whether they lean to the left or right is irrelevant...

Any economist will say Australias debt is close to insignificant... any person on the street will say we are drowning in debt and about to default.

And why that is is a mystery to Lefties.

A multinational has multiple avenues to grow or defend net profit by
- bringing new and better product to market
- expanding markets internationally
- changing the margin/volume mix to increase revenues
- cutting overheads
- cutting staff in lieu of automation or manufacturing offshore
- selling off or killing under performing divisions
- up/down size debt to exploit tax law or investor expectations.

It is naive to think a Socialist Govt committed to a 'fairer go for all' has the same options.

Lefties forget that the private sector has to increase productivity when the public sector wants to aggrandise itself with ever more generous acts of do goodness.
 
? Huh??!??!

let me make my post even clearer to you so that you dont descend again into incoherent political dogma..

If you dont like my example of house.. or multi-national company then pick ANY OTHER BLOODY COUNTRY IN THE WORLD to compare us with regarding debt.

It is only incoherent political dogma to the economically illiterate.
Please explain which of the following relative to GDP, is the better indicator of risk:

net public debt
net private debt
net external or foreign debt
 
Reading your post as I look up to my degree from USYD with a major (there are no majors though i did 3 years along side my BCST) of economics honors hanging on my wall and shaking my head trying to figure out the point to your question.

Is it to see if I understand the difference? Is it to open the door for you to reply with more incoherent dribble laced with loosley held together economic tid bits?

From were I sit I refuse to play a long but even if I did and gave your question an ounce of calm cool collected thought as its basis then my response would be something like;

Glad you think you can sum up risk for an entire nation in a single question regarding debt relative to GDP obviously your economic prowess vastly surpasses mine, the RBA and every other economist in the country.


It is only incoherent political dogma to the economically illiterate.
Please explain which of the following relative to GDP, is the better indicator of risk:

net public debt
net private debt
net external or foreign debt
 
Reading your post as I look up to my degree from USYD with a major (there are no majors though i did 3 years along side my BCST) of economics honors hanging on my wall and shaking my head trying to figure out the point to your question.

Is it to see if I understand the difference? Is it to open the door for you to reply with more incoherent dribble laced with loosley held together economic tid bits?

From were I sit I refuse to play a long but even if I did and gave your question an ounce of calm cool collected thought as its basis then my response would be something like;

Glad you think you can sum up risk for an entire nation in a single question regarding debt relative to GDP obviously your economic prowess vastly surpasses mine, the RBA and every other economist in the country.

I am looking at my hons in economics degree thinking the same thing. The important thing is not essentially which is more important it is the capacity to pay back the debt that counts. If you want to learn more about each I suggest you read the link to the article I posted last night.
 
Funny small world... we may have gone to the same Uni, I was a BCST graduate at USYD where did you do yours?

My frustration is that your posts can be pretty much summed up with the comment you made here "the capacity to pay back the debt that counts"

If this is the case then you have no issue with Australia debt levels? Except aside from say private debt but here the state of the economy plays a much bigger factor i.e. unemployment. If peoples circumstances change i.e. they loose their job it wasnt the debt that caused their downfall it was the removal of their ability to pay. Hence why a stimulus is so vital given a recessionary spiral is hard to stop.

I am guessing what you really mean to say like you did in a previous post i.e. I affirmed above governments should spend, but in a manner that does not reduce the productivity that services govt expenditure.

Although ambigious or atleast not definitive what your trying to say here I basically interprit this to mean not waste money. Here is the problem a stimulus is infact a wasted investment if measured against an investment made with the benefit of time but a crisis removes time so the investment cannt be ports, roads or any other grand productivity improving effort.

Instead its used to ensure the economy doesnt falter, takes the sting out of any downturn and ensure productivity isnt destroyed which basically is what a recession is.

So let me get this straight, you have no issue with debt so long as its invested wisely. This is basically in laymen terms what you have been stating. You even throw in a caveat by saying so long as we can meet repayments and no-one in their right mind is debating that.

So what exactly in what I posted caused you to have an issue?

All thats left is political dogma which I care little for... if this argument is simply reduced to agreeing that both parties would have done the same thing in power but the Libs would have done it better and without so much waste then ummmm ok fine maybe they would or maybe they wouldnt have we will never know.

But lets get something straight the stimulus package from the Libs if they were in power would have been very similar in style and substance. If they refused to have a stimulus package then we would have gone into recession this is more or les fact given if you remove the GDP spike as a result of the package we would have been in negative.

Therefore if the ultimate measure of the governments success or failure was weather we went into recession it passed. If it could have done better then even I put my hand up and say yes.

I just cant help but feel this has more to do with political persuasion than economics.


I am looking at my hons in economics degree thinking the same thing. The important thing is not essentially which is more important it is the capacity to pay back the debt that counts. If you want to learn more about each I suggest you read the link to the article I posted last night.
 
So if I want to understand the views of you two I just have to listen to Glenn Stevens. Great. No doubt you guys will make a bundle by pre-empting which way he moves rates next. :rolleyes:

Fairsjk, as for the articles you referred me to, neither explains why Australia's interest rates are where they are. Maybe you can drudge up something from EC211.
 
Your aparently an economist you should know EXACTLY where they are going... the problem is not the direction of rates but rather other factors such as inflation, growth and the economy as a whole which dictate the interest rate levers.

One can predict rate directions but this means predicting the outcome of several factors in a very unpredictable and rapidly changing economic landscape.

If anything Glenn Stevens decisions to date have more or less been correct. The last rate decison there were several prominent economists saying he would raise rates due to the spike in inflation he didnt do and instead elected to wait.

Implying that Glenn Stevens doesnt know what he is talking about sounds like a whole lot of bogenomics to me. Has he made a mistake? One rate rise too many is the only issue I keep hearing but this was before the QLD devestation and is hardly a mistake.

PS: What do you mean by "No doubt you guys will make a bundle by pre-empting which way he moves rates next."? I dont currency trade nor do I trade in any product directly linked with the future direction of rates.. I suspect you didnt expect we did but was again just a snide remark expressing your dislike of a person or institution that is the RBA.

I can attempt a snide response back... I will bet my last dollar I will make more money listening to the RBA and Glenn Stevens and their thoughts of the economy today and going into the future than listening to you - and I am not even trying to be rude here.





So if I want to understand the views of you two I just have to listen to Glenn Stevens. Great. No doubt you guys will make a bundle by pre-empting which way he moves rates next. :rolleyes:

Fairsjk, as for the articles you referred me to, neither explains why Australia's interest rates are where they are. Maybe you can drudge up something from EC211.
 
Maybe you two economic geniuses can explain why gdp growth has lagged horribly behind credit growth for 20 years. And if you say due to mining investment, I'll ROFL.

creditgdp.gif
 
Although ambigious or atleast not definitive what your trying to say here I basically interprit this to mean not waste money. Here is the problem a stimulus is infact a wasted investment if measured against an investment made with the benefit of time but a crisis removes time so the investment cannt be ports, roads or any other grand productivity improving effort.

Keynes own works on the subject explains while building pyramids or burying money only to dig it up again does increase employment surely in our modern society (in his case the 1930s 40s) we can come up with better than this. Come 2008 and we can think of nothing better than handing cash out and one size fits all school halls... The closest thing to real keynesian stimulous in that first round of stimulous was the few hundred million to local councils.

Frankly at least building a pyramid leaves us with something for our investment. (Edit: I need to stress just reading this again keynes said don't build pyramids, though the subtlety is so often lost on people!) At least a massive pyramid could serve as some metaphorical statement as to where the Labor party might spend the next few millenia and how long perhaps that the Labor party will spend in the political wilderness after the next election.

As you say / agree stimulous expenditure should not reduce the productivity of the nation and further that capacity to pay is critical.

Well also as you say we were never going to have an issue with capacity to pay even if we literally pissed 60bn up against the wall around federal government spending.

I would go further around your thoughts that running an economy is in some ways similar to running a business in that in part deciding where to invest in the two are similar with a few additional criteria for governments.

Like a business the best place to expend the money should be decided upon initially based on how that expenditure will increase the productivity, competitiveness and by extension just for governments tax revenues in future years. It is based on the value added to the economy / business of the investment.

The only additional consideration for stiumulous expenditure is how that expenditure will affect aggregate demand. This clearly is not a consideration for a company no matter how large only for governments spending during slumps in demand and using keynesian stimulous.

While Keynes was considered a bit of a lefty, IMO he would have been turning in his grave to hear his name associated with Australias stimulous spending. That a $1000.00 cash handout or building many school halls / canteens etc just because it was a fast way to translate money into activity is a cop out and we could have done more to meet future demand his other criteria for good spending.

Putting it into the analogy / situation of a business what labor did would be like BHP on the cusp of a major slow down / fall in mineral prices with a billion of capex left in the budget, rather than buying a new rail line to ensure they are the lowest cost producer in NW Western Australia throughout this impending slow down giving all their employees a $25,000 bonus.

It made no sense under the circumstances when for all money we were entering something supposedly akin to the great depression.

Then returning to the specific question of why could we not build something more substantial? I am sure we could have. If that money had been given to state roads / rail or other authorities they have lists of projects that are in the pipeline. Many only thwarted due to budgetary constraints. Give them 20bn indeed only a few billion a pop. They will spend it and while some may be considered "wastefull mitigations" as keynes would call them at least some of it would increase our future productivity.
 
Not a genius... also love how you dont mention your economics degree by the way... if we are going to just outright lie then why stop at degrees? Ladies out there im 2m tall, dark with blue eyes, IQ 150 and I also have a secondary degree in pure awesomeness with a major in Stefanomics.

Regarding your question please clarify?

Which rise? the last 4 years where its been dropping? :p

Or the Howard years :p

Sorry couldnt help but poke the bear one more time on your obvious political leanings..

This graph has very little point, given the period shown shows that both parties are at fault, we both agree Australia\Australians can pay for debt and not in risk of defaulting then these posts serve little purpose other than waste time on a Sunday night.

Lets agree to disagree on whatever it is\was we were arguing about.

Maybe you two economic geniuses can explain why gdp growth has lagged horribly behind credit growth for 20 years. And if you say due to mining investment, I'll ROFL.

creditgdp.gif
 
If anything Glenn Stevens decisions to date have more or less been correct.

I can attempt a snide response back... I will bet my last dollar I will make more money listening to the RBA and Glenn Stevens and their thoughts of the economy today and going into the future than listening to you - and I am not even trying to be rude here.

Well, more or less correct, make up your mind. And according to who?
If you think enough time has passed to make the call Stevens' decisions have been for the best, considering global conditions in that time, then you are a live one.

good luck making more money. I'll continue profiting from Stevens suddenly realizing he needs to appear on television to say things like:

“These (house) prices are getting quite high,” Mr Stevens said. “I’ve got kids that within not too many years are going to want somewhere of their own to live and you wonder how is that going to be afforded.”
 
Yes correct we should have come up with something better but please oh please dont tell me you think Abbott or even Turnbull would have produced a solution that will form the basis of future economic thinking over the likes of Keynes.

No we couldnt build roads etc because these take notoriously long for government to plan, approve and build. This would have never commenced in time to provide the required stimulus when it was needed.

No government in the world has had the forward thinking in place to activate a stimulus package of the kind your talking about. The best you could do is bring forward projects already in the late stages of the approval process or were planed to start already in the next few months etc etc.

If your saying surely there is a better way, then yes yes yes and yes there has to be but whatever that is it wasnt in place then just like again its not in place now.

This is an academic discussion on how better to stimulute the economy. Personally I wish we had a stockpile of labor intensive projects we could plan and approve and shelve in times of emergency stimulus to commence/roll out immediately.

However this too is not really a solution and more wishful thinking on my part than anything else. Reason being can you imagine a government going through all phases to get a project approved of the size\complexity needed to serve as a national stimulus only to shelve it?

However I am not disagreeing with anything you wrote (except the last bit were you hint that surely we could have kicked off some infrastructure projects). I also agree in the under current of your post that surely there is a better way, yes and I hope we have better economists than Steven Keen thinking of such solutions.

Last point. Perhaps the solution isnt even an economic one. If the government was a highly efficient enterprise then it could perhaps roll out big projects at the drop of a hat. I know I as a developer if given the cash and told develop a sky rise that strictly complies to code I could probably start within 2 months?

Most economists will say that basically even if the government flew a helicopter over the city (as suggested by a japanese official once) and dropped money for people to rush out and spend then this is a good policy versus doing nothing. Obviously those same economists would say but given we need to spend money then its best it gets spent on something useful and here is the dilema. Whats useful that can start straight away, employ thousands touch multiple industries and run through government processes so quickly as the commence when needed to stimulute?



Keynes own works on the subject explains while building pyramids or burying money only to dig it up again does increase employment surely in our modern society (in his case the 1930s 40s) we can come up with better than this. Come 2008 and we can think of nothing better than handing cash out and one size fits all school halls... The closest thing to real keynesian stimulous in that first round of stimulous was the few hundred million to local councils.

Frankly at least building a pyramid leaves us with something for our investment. Even if it is a metaphorical statement as to where the Labor party might spend the next few millenia and how long perhaps that the Labor party will spend in the political wilderness after the next election.

As you say yourself stimulous expenditure should not reduce the productivity of the nation and further that capacity to pay is critical.

Well we were never going to have an issue with capacity to pay even if we literally pissed 60bn up against the wall.

I would go further around your thoughts that running an economy is in some ways close to running a business in that in part deciding where to invest the two are similar with a few additional criteria for governments.

Like a business the best place to expend the money should be decided upon initially based on how that expenditure will increase the productivity, competitiveness and by extension just for governments tax revenues in future years. It is based on the value added to the economy / business of the investment.

The only additional consideration for stiumulous expenditure is how that expenditure will affect aggregate demand. This clearly is not a consideration for a company no matter how large only for governments spending during slumps in demand and using keynesian stimulous.

While Keynes was considered a bit of a lefty, IMO he would have been turning in his grave to hear his name associated with Australias stimulous spending. That a $1000.00 cash handout or building many school halls / canteens etc just because it was a fast way to translate money into activity is a cop out and we could have done more to meet future demand.

Putting it into the analogy / situation of a business what labor did would be like BHP on the cusp of a major slow down / fall in mineral prices with a billion of capex left in the budget, rather than buying a new rail line to ensure they are the lowest cost producer in NW Western Australia throughout this impending slow down giving all their employees a $25,000 bonus.

It made no sense under the circumstances when for all money we were entering something supposedly akin to the great depression.

Then returning to the specific question of why could we not build something more substantial? I am sure we could have. If that money had been given to state roads / rail or other authorities they have lists of projects that are in the pipeline. Many only thwarted due to budgetary constraints. Give them 20bn indeed only a few billion a pop. They will spend it and while some may be considered "wastefull mitigations" as keynes would call them at least some of it would increase our future productivity.
 
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