BIS Shrapnel - Growth To Continue Until 2017 (regardless of Europe)

[DavidMc]

[taken from Hotspotting.com.au's newsletter]

The latest BIS Shrapnel long-term growth forecast says Australia's economy will continue to grow unfettered at about 3% per year until 2017. Gross domestic product (GDP) will remain at current levels for the next five years, even if Europe's economy implodes.

However, BIS Shrapnel says Australia is at risk of under-investing in infrastructure and non-mining industries and will remain sensitive to swings in commodity prices.

A sharp fall in world commodity prices could even shunt the country into recession, if the downturn was severe enough. Meanwhile, a Deloitte Access Economics report also out this week forecasts the resources boom will peak in 2014-2015.

Seems like a bet both ways, but overall, I'd say positive news for property investors.

 

[HotRod]

Meanwhile, back at BIS headquarters they are hard working on their next property report............

 

[Aaron Sice]

so i would brace for sluggish conditions until 2017, then a god-almighty spike and boom period followed by the biggest crash ever 9 months later.

 

[DavidMc]

Hehehe... nice picture.

Yes, they haven't been too good in the past.

I'm with them on this one though, I think in general people place too much emphasis on what Europe is doing. I'm more interested in the growth in China, India, Vietnam, South Korea, etc etc.

 

[matto_]

almost need a calendar - to come back to particular threads such as this one - and then a scoreboard for which forecasters got it right and which ones didnt.

 

[hobo-jo]

almost need a calendar - to come back to particular threads such as this one - and then a scoreboard for which forecasters got it right and which ones didnt.

No need with BIS, they post their lousy history on the website:

http://www.bis.com.au/verve/_resources/BIS_Shrapnel_Forecast_Record_FINAL.pdf

http://www.bis.com.au/verve/_resources/Residential_Property_Prospects_Forecast_Record.pdf

 

[DavidMc]

Not to mention Deloitte Access Economics have been predicting a crash since about 2009...

 

[BayView]

However, BIS Shrapnel says Australia is at risk of under-investing in infrastructure and non-mining industries and will remain sensitive to swings in commodity prices.

The English interpretation of this is;

Outside of mining - it's tanking.

 

[Player]

The English interpretation of this is;

Outside of mining - it's tanking.

It's time is also beckoning. It will at the very least need to take a breather:


http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2012/s3573784.htm

 

[Player]

Watch this space

It's time is also beckoning. It will at the very least need to take a breather:


http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2012/s3573784.htm

Watch this space also..................

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...tent=97975&utm_campaign=kgb&modapt=commentary

Hah! I just quoted me

 

[HomePage]

Meanwhile, back at BIS headquarters they are hard working on their next property report............

PMSL everytime I see this post. Well done and I totally agree with you!

 

[VYBerlinaV8]

so i would brace for sluggish conditions until 2017, then a god-almighty spike and boom period followed by the biggest crash ever 9 months later.

I think we'll stagnate through to the late 20-teens, then have another fairly large run up similar to what we've just had, peaking in the late 2020s. After that, no idea.

(Disclaimer: This is little more than a guess)

 

[Aaron Sice]

I think we'll stagnate through to the late 20-teens, then have another fairly large run up similar to what we've just had, peaking in the late 2020s. After that, no idea.

(Disclaimer: This is little more than a guess)

we could work for BIS!!!

 

[ok180]

BIS taking the PI$$

 

[VYBerlinaV8]

we could work for BIS!!!

Could? Mate, we SHOULD...