Boomers going BOOM - unrealistic about ability to survive without pension

Lots of boomers living the 'high' life now are going to be faced with some hard choices in the next twenty years.

This could be a real economy-stopper for Australia, sending us into a severe recession....

THE age pension has such a poor image that only a fraction of people near retirement age admit - or realise - they will have to rely on it, a new study shows.

Only 12 per cent of baby boomers surveyed believe they will be fully reliant on the age pension, and 46 per cent say they will need a part-pension.

These figures are much lower proportions than Treasury projections of 75 per cent of retirees still reliant on the pension in 2050 - a third of them the full pension.

The proportions are likely to be even higher for the "lucky generation" of boomers - aged 45-60 - who are starting to retire now.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/boomers-in-denial-about-their-age-pension-future/2006/08/11/1154803102245.html

Rest of the article has some interesting points about boomers having some very unrealistic expectations about their ability to survive financially.

With these attitudes they live higher now, building up greater debt, that in the long-term they won't have the ability to repay - or at least will switch to barebones poverty-level survival to service.

It could also result in kids and grandkids more directly financing their parents' retirements, reducing their ability to consume as well.

It would be very interesting to breakdown household debt by age group to see the proportion held by those within 20 years of retirement - and whether they could reasonably expect to pay this back given their wages and asset growth during the next twenty years.

Anyone done this analysis already?

Cheers,

Aceyducey
 
i admit i internally scoff every time i see those ads for industrial super v's private super. sure at 20yrs of age $200k to retire on might seem a lot of money - but in 40 years time when you get there it will be mere peanuts, barely enough to cover 5-10 years of lifestyle (depending on how frugul you are).

i would love to see retirement education, or financial education, taught in the schools but fear that for most students it wouldn't sink in.
 
lizzie said:
i would love to see retirement education, or financial education, taught in the schools but fear that for most students it wouldn't sink in.
At high school levil, nobody expects to live into old age ie 40 so retirement would be a big yawn.

Any financial education must be more immediate and centre on the use of credit cards and consumer debt. (I still remember much of the physics/chemistry I learned at high school 50 yrs ago). If it can be wrapped in tinsil and choc coated some may be saved. Forget religion, teach life skills!!!!
 
RichardC said:
Any financial education must be more immediate and centre on the use of credit cards and consumer debt. (I still remember much of the physics/chemistry I learned at high school 50 yrs ago). If it can be wrapped in tinsil and choc coated some may be saved. Forget religion, teach life skills!!!!

The most intelligent thing ever posted on somersoft! I couldnt agree more!

RJ
 
Hi Acey

Yes, I have mentioned this as a concern a few times.

Over the past month there have been two enquiries published in newspaper columns where questions from people in their fifties have been asked regarding accessing the funds in superannuation to (a) pay for school fees, and (b) pay for a child’s wedding.

These questions would indicate that both families had no other savings except the modest amounts in the superannuation and that each family was eager to obtain access to the funds so that the money could be spent.

Since 1989 compulsory superannuation has created a mindset that ‘it will be right on the night’ – that there will be ‘super’ available for retirement.

My parents worked for Bradmill Industries, one of a handful of employers which introduced a superannuation or pension scheme in about the1960s. I can remember my Mother being anxious about this – the one pound per month paid into the funds from the employer would have gone a long way in a family of six reliant on one wage. But when the working life was over, there was $17,000 in the fund which would not otherwise have been there.

This was a generation which was frugal, kept a close eye on the finances and had careful spending habits. There was no expectation of private schools or fancy weddings and whose main ambition was to pay off the house before retirement and to have no debt. Those who had superannuation had it in the main because they had initiated a superannuation policy themselves and were committed to paying into it with no expectation of accessing those funds until the due date.

Now, the boomers have lost sight of these basic ambitions. Private schools are becoming almost de rigueur for families with any level of income and the type and level of spending has risen dramatically.

Spending has become a way of life. This is not spending on basics such as shoes, but on what would have been considered luxury goods such as holidays (oh, but it’s cheaper to go to Bali than it is to go to Rosebud!) and little consideration is given to ongoing costs such as heating and petrol.

In my opinion, Australia is going to be facing age related poverty such as we have never seen before. Few people have investments of any significant level, few people have savings, and the compulsory nature of superannuation has blinded most people to the need to take some responsibility for themselves.

It doesn’t take much arithmetic to determine that if someone is earning $50,000 per annum in full time work, and has less than, say, $5,000 in savings and has some level of debt – mortgage, personal loan, even a couple of thousand on the credit cards – that they are actually using most of their income for ‘living expenses’. If they have $200,000 in superannuation when they retire, that superannuation will take them only five years to fully expend. Retire at 60, on the pension by 65. What else has changed?

But underlying all this, is the ongoing nature of unpaid debt and / or rent. Whereas a previous generation tried to clear debt before retirement, I don’t believe that this generation intends to do so.

Debt of a personal nature is not to be confused with debt used to gear business or investments. Debt against your own motor vehicle or your own home is simply debt. I would suggest that people living in the less salubrious suburbs, the working class folk, are probably in a stronger position than those in the middle class belt and who have higher expectations.

Perhaps, in as far as retirement in Australia is concerned, it truly will be the meek who shall inherit the earth!

What can be done about this? Not much, I’d say. While there is a mindset that superannuation should be accessible for school fees and weddings I think that the financial awareness of the nation will continue to recede.

As there is not much the individual can do to protect the nation, we may as well take up a pro-active stance and buy plenty of investment units suitable for ‘empty nesters’. After selling the family home for whatever equity there is in it, driving a Winnebago around Australia for six months, and upgrading the family car, there will be only enough left for a new lounge suite to put in the rented villa unit.

I don’t mean to sound cynical. Actually, this concerns me quite a bit. I honestly do not think that many of my peer group realise that their working days are numbered and at the end of maybe fourty or even fifty years of conscientious working there will be no pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.

Perhaps if the Government actually published the Centrelink allowances more openly people would start to see how serious this is.

At $499.70 for an individual per fortnight ($12,992.20 per annum), or $417.20 each for a couple ($21,694.40 per annum) - not including any rent assistance payments, there are not going to be too many lattes or light hearted day trips to while away the next thirty years.

(sigh)

Kristine
 
RichardC said:
Originally Posted by RichardC
Any financial education must be more immediate and centre on the use of credit cards and consumer debt. (I still remember much of the physics/chemistry I learned at high school 50 yrs ago). If it can be wrapped in tinsil and choc coated some may be saved. Forget religion, teach life skills!!!!

I would have been bored to death in high school !!! I don't think many would take it seriously and would be a waste of time.

Best place to learn it is from parents. From the way they deal with money.
 
both myself and one of the older kids were really frustrated with high school - she took a class called business office procedures, hoping to learn something about how businesses operated, or at least some basic financial advice.

what a waste of time. spent a whole week learning how to write a cheque! can't recall exactly what else was in the course as was a few years ago, but i don't think the level of education reached any higher than that ... she was bored brainless and i was very very disappointed in the school. it didn't need to be much - just a bit of financial and consumer education would have done.
 
lizzie said:
both myself and one of the older kids were really frustrated with high school - she took a class called business office procedures, hoping to learn something about how businesses operated, or at least some basic financial advice.

what a waste of time. spent a whole week learning how to write a cheque! can't recall exactly what else was in the course as was a few years ago, but i don't think the level of education reached any higher than that ... she was bored brainless and i was very very disappointed in the school. it didn't need to be much - just a bit of financial and consumer education would have done.
I agree. Oldest daughter did commerce for one term. Spent ages learning how to write a cheque. She knew more than the teacher. She had an assigment on investment vehicles & she didn't mention property as one of the forms that can be used. I questioned her why she hadn't mentioned it & her reply was that she was just going to mention what the teacher wanted to hear because otherwise it would reflect on her marks. She did mention property in class at one time & the teacher really wasn't responsive as it is too "risky". She didn't pick commerce again after that.
 
I remember in my year 12 "Veggie" maths class (couldn't be bothered doing the brainy maths) we learnt about compounding interest, the effect of interest on loans and other really useful stuff. The only thing I really remember is the teacher saying that if you put away $20 per month in a compounding interest account at such and such % per annum you would be a millionair within 20 years. I started doing that then a few years later blew it on an overseas trip. I shudder to think what that account would be worth today but it did spark an interest in saving and investing.
 
I've always thought that by the time I get there the pension wont exist (effectively). But in 10 years time there will be a b ig chunk of boomers at or over 65 and probably complaining bitterly about the size of the pension...what percentage of the population will be at pension age then? They will represent a potent political force, can't see any government prepared to ostracise them.

Actually, after a quick google, it suggests those over 65 will go from about 12% of population to maybe 15-16%, and take 20 + years to get to the 20s%...is this politically big enough to counteract the necessity of modifying welfare?
 
harry s. dent

Hi Acey,

Have you read both prophecy by robert kiyosaki and the great bubble boom ahead by Harry S. Dent?

These are both fantastic/frightening books about the future regarding baby boomers retiring and they effect they will have on the economy.
 
lizzie said:
both myself and one of the older kids were really frustrated with high school - she took a class called business office procedures, hoping to learn something about how businesses operated, or at least some basic financial advice.

what a waste of time. spent a whole week learning how to write a cheque!

Brings back memories of a subject called 'Business Principles and Practices'. Though we got beyond cheques to invoices, sale dockets and the like. As the teacher also taught typing, these had to be typed (either electric or manual - can't remember).

Boooorrrrriiiiinnnnnggggg!

A year later we did something called 'Consumer in the economy' as part of social studies. And we were taught the difference between simple and reducing interest and how much a rip-off the former was when buying something on HP. As for accumulating wealth, well we might have had an excercise on compound interest.

Peter
 
pricey said:
Hi Acey,

Have you read both prophecy by robert kiyosaki and the great bubble boom ahead by Harry S. Dent?

These are both fantastic/frightening books about the future regarding baby boomers retiring and they effect they will have on the economy.
I think Dent's book is bordering on fanciful. His prediction is Dow 36k in a few years, and we are already some way off his forecast route by the time late 06 rolled around.

I could be more specific but I think it might be relevant to mention Harry's speaking fees. Which are in the region of 100k when I checked. Spend some contemplation time on this and the certainty with which he writes such attention grabbing (outlandish) predictions and you begin to piece the puzzle together. Having said this there are useful parts to the book, I like his S curve and use of spending pattern data ideas.

Been a while since I read RK's book but if I remember there wasn't much substance to it beyond the basic idea of beware the retiring boomers.
 
Yes I recall also that Dent predicted a massive Nasdaq and Dow that just hasn't happened, also RK was fairly broad ranging.

I think the obvious point is that with an ageing population and reducing tax payer base, that the current $90b pa spent on welfare is going to increase as a percentage, we are going to be taxed to the hilt and therefore investments seem essential unless you are happy to live in virtual poverty (which you could do I guess but who wants to?)

Tim
 
Tim said:
Yes I recall also that Dent predicted a massive Nasdaq and Dow that just hasn't happened, also RK was fairly broad ranging.

I think the obvious point is that with an ageing population and reducing tax payer base, that the current $90b pa spent on welfare is going to increase as a percentage, we are going to be taxed to the hilt and therefore investments seem essential unless you are happy to live in virtual poverty (which you could do I guess but who wants to?)

Tim
Thats a fixed iceberg in our path I guess.

What I expect might happen is that we will experience seismic shifts in our attitude to immigration and importing young skilled people from Asia to redress the balance.
 
This doom and gloom has been around before.

The Gov of the day will simply find the new tax base and still hit those not working via the GST.

Have you noticed whilst income tax rates and threaholds go down and up resectively the GST stays the same 10% but on ever increasing amounts.

Petrol for one example. Was $1 so 10c take, now it is $1.30 so 30c take. (yes i am ignoring other petrol cost input factors to keep it simple).

The trick is to stay fit so you dont need to wait on huge waiting lists for surgery in your older life.

Peter 14.7
 
Hey Peter,

That's true on the GSt front. I heard somewhere that state governments had a $250M windfall coming from petrol price increases.

And of course they did very well out of the property boom.

It pays to be The House :)

However other than taxing our socks off, we still need the bodies to do the work = more immigration. And we'll need skilled immigrants as well to replace the retirement brain drain.

Cheers,

Aceyducey
 
Peter 14.7 said:
Petrol for one example. Was $1 so 10c take, now it is $1.30 so 30c take. (yes i am ignoring other petrol cost input factors to keep it simple).
Sorry mate, at $1.30 that would be a 13c take not 30c. In fact, GST is 1/11 of the final price so would be 11.8c on a $1.30 item to be precise. i.e. on one litre of petrol costing $1.30, the 10% GST portion would be worth 11.8c on top of the $1.18 base price, and on a litre costing $1.00 the GST would be 9.1c, not 10c.

Something else to be aware of is that the consumption of GST-exempt items "increases with age". So the older you are, the more GST exempt stuff you buy. Here's a link to an interesting article that outlines this in some detail and also shows forward GST revenue projections for the government.

http://www.pc.gov.au/study/ageing/finalreport/technicalpapers/technicalpaper11.pdf

GST Technical Paper said:
Non-taxable expenditure will account for around 36 per cent of total household consumption (21.4 per cent of GDP) by 2044-45 (Commission estimates), up from its current share of 31.3 per cent of household spending (18.7 per cent of GDP).
:D
Michael.
 
I think that the idea of retiring at 60 will go out the window for most people (with 55 retirement being a very short lived phase) Instead I think people will "downshift" and will do some work on a part-time, temporary or casual basis to supplement their income. With fewer in the workforce employers will come to value older workers more.

And there has been a real shift with gen Y staying at home longer and although some might be costing their parents others would be contributing as part of the "stay at home package".

I supect that the mass exodus expected may not occur exactly as predicted.
 
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