Bubble or not - List your disc findings !

melbourne property is offering low rental yields, and upside is limited i beleive for the overall market.

When i bought in early 2009 it was cheaper to buy than rent. Rates were 4.95% on the loan i got.

Its now cheaper to rent than buy in every suburb. this was not he case 2 years ago.

Given property is drive by debt. It is clear that interest rates run the property market, we all know that. Right now there is no reason for prices to push higher. What would be the catalyst? There is enough supply out there at the moment compared to 12 months ago, so people are spoilt for choice.

A 10% fall in the property market in melbourne would be healthy I beleive. And if inflation is running at around 3% , it will only take 3 years if price stay the same.


In any market people are always going to make or lose money, smart investors will do well, but i dont beleive you can just buy anything and expect a good return like you could have 2 years ago.

Beware the renovated apartment!
 
I cant agree with you there. I had properties in different states in the 00-03 boom and they all went up.

The thing is, the boom was later in say Brisbane outskirts then it was in Sydney.

Prices for different properties in the same area is just different properties i'd say.

What i meant tho (in reply to Aarons post as well) is that you only hear on here about market in markets thing when properties are falling, never in arising market.

Because, of course people don't want to think they are missing out on growth, but when it comes to falling prices, they don't want to be part of it. So thats when the markets in markets (and sometimes in more markets) defense comes to the fore.

Human nature i'd say.

can't agree with you there evand.

my personal experience certainly validates the markets within markets theory. I have had properties in a 5 year period basically show no growth at all and during the same 5 year period had other properties more than triple.

I am a big believer in timing the market and diversifying for these reasons.

The market i am watching closely at the moment is bayside melb as i am trying to upgrade PPOR. This market is very inconsistent and probably down slightly on last year. many properties are passing in without a bid and then others are going way over reserve. I bid for one last week and it went $225K over reserve, i went $25k over what i thought is was worth because it was for PPOR and i really liked it but the guy who bought it was bloody determined to win it!!
 
Can you point out any 'real life experience' posts in the thread?

Thanks

Great thread and can't wait to see the facts coming from real life experiences, not just what people get emailed to them by REA's..:rolleyes:

I repeat.... I can't wait to see the real life experiences (ok...data if you insist) posted on this thread....and no I can't identify any yet...real life discount prices achieved by anyone here....bring 'em on...I'm interested.

Why are you getting yourself in such a knot Ev...?
Relax man....chill...unless you have something to be worried about...?

I just don't believe that emails sent by REA's constitute an actual discount unless you take that offer up and crystallise the data in history and therefore proof that discounts are there.

Not hard to understand surely....?

Sure discounts happen all the time but the inference to this thread, I think, was to reveal any large discounts as a result of the so called property bubble collapsing....I'm terribly interested in any of those sales that come to light in here.

Also, sorry but there are markets within markets and you know it.
 
There is actually a free website that tells you what property's have been reduced. Unfortunately I think it only pulls down info from domain and not real estate.com.au

It also shows a bit more info like days on market lowest and highest selling prices Www.refindhouseprices.com
 
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Attractive; buy for $400k, rent for $330p/w.

Now that's what I call a really bad return.

They are kidding, right?

It also is excellently located in a high crime area, the development has been subject to electrical fires and water damage. In essence: poor quality.

The surrounding area is full of empty shoplined streets, graffiti and large (largely) industrial sites.

GOLD MINE.
 
Beware the renovated apartment!

:confused: How come? That's what I'm looking at in Bayside Melbourne. (1 bedders as that's all I can really afford.. unless I rent out the 2nd room of a 2 bedder.)

(When I say renovated I mean apartments from the 60s/70s that have reasonable interior, perhaps a new kitchen and bathroom and some polished floorboards, nothing too fancy though.)
 
Hi All,

Here is a real life example from a seller, within the last month.

Outer south east melbourne, i thought property would sell for round (x$), after talking to agent he thought round (x+$20k), this was the price he put in writng as the appraisal.

Sold it for (x + $25k), new purchaser will rent it out for an exact 5% yield.

Cheers,
Nathan
 
Smell that fear?

I smell fear in the market and there is money to be made!

Last time I smelt fear like this was the GFC. I bought stocks like a fiend and am still seeing the upside. :p
 
I bought a piece of land for $4.3m when it was advertised at $5m+

Yikes that's some big bikkies to a small-fry like me.

14% discount sounds pretty good in anyone's language. I am also assuming you know what to do with the land to create a huge upside. That, or you are making your own private football field.
 
◦Boroondara has a lot of stock on the market and waves are continuing to arrive each week – the indicators do clearly show a dampening of market demand under weight of numbers, almost identical to May of last year. However these results do not show the market is significantly dropping or without some strong results.

28 Barrington Kew – Glen Coutinho was huge (in our mind) drawing out $300,000 more than our best guess with 7 bidders – so what do we know. Wow.

http://webcache.googleusercontent.c...ent&cd=13&hl=en&ct=clnk&source=www.google.com

The investor who bought this property must be kicking themself. Firstly, they outbid 6 others and paid $2.23 million (listed at $1.6-1.7m). So all in cost including stamp duty, fees etc - around $2.4 million.

I've been tracking it as we were also looking for a rental around the same time. Now, they've been trying to rent it out for the past 8 weeks (or more). First listing in May, asking rent - $950 p/w. No takers. Brought it down in rapid succession - 795, 750, 695 and now asking for $650 for the past 2 weeks. Still vacant.

Ouch and a bigger ouch. Irrational exuberance at its ugliest. Gross [asking] yield is 1.4% - net probably a little over 1%.
 
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