Bullish on Brisbane

twobobsworth said:
The horse has already bolted. I'm more interested in which city is next.
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Adelaide has show great signs over the last 6 months, agent was saying its one of the best Winters he has had and was interested to see how it went over spring with more supply of house. Result was best spring he has had. Now very interested what happens for the rest of summer if it eases off or really bolts.
 
Brady said:
Adelaide has show great signs over the last 6 months, agent was saying its one of the best Winters he has had and was interested to see how it went over spring with more supply of house. Result was best spring he has had. Now very interested what happens for the rest of summer if it eases off or really bolts.
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Anyone expecting effects in the SA market due to anticipated decline in the manufacturing sector (automotive)?
 
Roachy said:
Where has it bolted to? Cause I haven't seen any significant CG or price movement yet. Brisbane is still a very mellow market.
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Ditto, ...... I was thinking the same thing. I'm still waiting to see some decent CG's. I'd be very disappointed if I've missed it ... :p

Mystery
 
I think Bris has a long was to go yet. Around my area in Perth you see for sale signs go up and a couple of weeks later under offer or sold signs. I know a few people in Bris selling, one went to auction and sold, other 2, week after week, are hoping for an offer.
 
Markets within markets and all that, generally floating on the same positive tide at the moment but in the end you need to drill down to the individual property (often your property!) level to work out what's happened with prices.

Generally for this market, under 600k and <15k from the CBD the growth has been 5-7% so far this calendar year, strong growth in an absolute sense but relative to Sydney not that strong.
 
Check out who is being quoted in any report.

#1 is the Lord Mayor of Brisbane talking up the city. What else would you expect?

The next is from Terry Ryder. Check out his previous predictions to see how much faith you put in his predictions.
Marg
 
All these time I thought this 'Hot Spotter' had reasonable success in his prediction. But... not after this quick calculations..

Performance from his 'Avoid' list 2011.
Code: 
Suburb	Median Price (Now)	24 Mon. Grow.	Price 2011
Bankstown	 $545,000 	6%	 $481,562 
Blacktown	 $415,000 	13%	 $314,114 
Esperance	 $340,000 	1%	 $333,234 
Lyndhurst	 $468,000 	7%	 $404,773 
Parramatta	 $600,000 	13%	 $454,140 
Total	         $2,368,000 		 $1,987,823

That is about 19% growth in 2 years.

Performance from his hot spots 2011
Code: 
Suburb	Median Price (Now)	24 Mon. Grow.	 Price 2011 
Albany   	 $520,000 	-9%	 $617,812 
Bendigo   	 $339,000 	17%	 $233,537 
Bunbury   	 $470,000 	-3%	 $498,623 
Geelong   	 $483,000 	-8%	 $563,371 
Geraldton	 $330,000 	-8%	 $384,912 
Orange   	 $330,000 	8%	 $279,312 
Port Hedland	 $1,100,000 	6%	 $971,960 
Port Lincoln	 $320,000 	18%	 $215,168 
Total   	 $3,892,000 		 $3,764,695
That is about 3% growth in 2 years.

You are 16% better off if you buy in his 'avoid' list! May be he never stepped out his car in Western Sydney :p

I only took the 'house' data. I didn't pick & chose the suburbs. Simply included the one where I could find reliable data.
 
Market is moving, our conveyancing numbers in the practice are through the roof, off the plan contracts are coming in, multiple offer notifications coming in. I talk to agents and buyers agents continuously and they are reporting numbers at inspections etc are up.

BUT
At this stage I think it is only playing catch up for how dead the market was. Apart from prices for vacant land inside 10km of the city, no prices have really surprised me as yet.
If it is priced right people are buying or going in a little higher to knock out others but I am of the belief that we are in early stages of market warming up and looking towards a small uptick but over a longer period rather than boom and bust, or maybe that is just what I am hoping for. Bring on 2014 and lets find out.
 
I must have visited 100+ open houses in the last few months.
The Number of Overpriced ones that went under contract was quite surprising.
Not to mention the crowds!
2014 should be an interesting year.
 
Where we are in Bardon seems to be waking up. On the little strip of public reserve we back onto a really old Queenslander on a 600m2 block that needs major renos went for $700K recently which is actually still a decent price. Another decent one but still only 3 bed went for $920K which is a pretty good price too.

Not long ago houses in this area just sat still and did nothing or sold for well below fair value. That seems to have changed in the last few months.

Just anecdotal.

Cheers,
Michael
 
We just had a val on a place at Tingalpa and have recorded the extraordinary growth of 3.5% over the last 3.5 years so I think the horse has has got a pulse but certainly not bolting as yet. There was surely a trough where we went backwards in between those vals during floods etc but I would not call it crazy from where I sit as yet....
 
I believe Media coverage will have a big impact on the market in the coming years.
No doubt a current affair will do some story on some-one whose made exaggerated gains and it will snowball from there.
I even had my Mother in Law thinking about property investing, I get really worried when she talks about making offers on properties and hasn't even visited a broker/investigated finance.
 
zimby said:
I must have visited 100+ open houses in the last few months.
The Number of Overpriced ones that went under contract was quite surprising.
Not to mention the crowds!
2014 should be an interesting year.
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IMO I expect to see 2014 to continue as 2013 finished. I did 2 inspections yesterday and one of the buyers has already contacted me this morning to put in an offer.

We sold many of our properties in the last 2 weeks, with no new ones listing over that time. There will be owners holding off to list later in January, which will boost the numbers.

In January 2013 everyone was talking doom and gloom in Brisbane (excluding myself, purchased IP December 2012) now very active with, first home buyers, investors, smsf buyers, interstate buyers, OS buyers and developers.
 
see_change said:
Personally I think it's just putting it's head out the stable door and doing a few warm up stretches .

Cliff
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Couldnt agree more.....Brizzy's been cocooning since 2007 and is due to come out of hibernation. Im poised in readiness for the next round.
 
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