Bware the mother of all housing booms

[Ausprop]

no better time to load up guys...

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...l&utm_content=382362&utm_campaign=kgb&modapt=

"If we are not very careful Australia is going to have the mother of all dwelling booms. What we are seeing is a three-pronged boost to prices. First is a dramatic push to lift the demand for dwellings by banks offering cut mortgage rates thanks to Reserve Bank Governor Glenn Stevens. But second, and just as importantly, there is reluctance by banks to fund new supply.

In any commodity if you inflate demand and squeeze supply, prices go through the roof.

Thirdly taxpayers will subsidise the boom via a massive increase in the use of negative gearing via both personal and superannuation tax breaks.
"

 

[The Fence]

It's about time...

 

[HotRod]

That evil negative gearing.

Ban it before it destroys us all.

 

[Aaron Sice]

again, i just can't see "boom" being a literal term.

everyone's worried about everything - you can't talk to someone without them thinking that

a) the mining booms ovaaaa, maaate; or
b) interest rates are too low, meaning bad economic outlook; or
c) interest rates are going lower, so why buy now; or
d) jobs jobs jobs are being shedded; or
e) the election will change things; or
f) europe will somehow fail; or
g) rents are softening so immigration can't hold up demand; or
h) all of the above.

sentiment is in the Thomas H Crapper. it wouldn't matter if we had 1% unemployment and 1% interest rates and 1% wage increases a month - no sentiment, no market movement.

 

[one world]

sentiment is in the Thomas H Crapper. it wouldn't matter if we had 1% unemployment and 1% interest rates and 1% wage increases a month - no sentiment, no market movement.

In the past, each time we have had a recession, house prices rose.

 

[wategos]

That evil negative gearing.

Ban it before it destroys us all.

The party that promises to scale back negative gearing would get my vote. Incredibly damaging policy that will eventually go, unfortunately after the damage has already been done.

 

[see_change]

The party that promises to scale back negative gearing would get my vote. Incredibly damaging policy that will eventually go, unfortunately after the damage has already been done.

Labor did that under hawke Keating . Disaster . Did a fairly quick back flip after rents rapidly escalated and unaffordable for labor voters ...

Cliff

 

[wategos]

Labor did that under hawke Keating . Disaster . Did a fairly quick back flip after rents rapidly escalated and unaffordable for labor voters ...

Cliff

This did not happen, just a scare tactic. NG removal did not and would not cause rents to rise. It was reinstated to win votes in a close election.

 

[see_change]

This did not happen, just a scare tactic. NG removal did not and would not cause rents to rise. It was reinstated to win votes in a close election.

I saw it on the front page of the telegraph. It had to be true ...

 

[BayView]

again, i just can't see "boom" being a literal term.

everyone's worried about everything - you can't talk to someone without them thinking that

a) the mining booms ovaaaa, maaate; or
b) interest rates are too low, meaning bad economic outlook; or
c) interest rates are going lower, so why buy now; or
d) jobs jobs jobs are being shedded; or
e) the election will change things; or
f) europe will somehow fail; or
g) rents are softening so immigration can't hold up demand; or
h) all of the above.

sentiment is in the Thomas H Crapper. it wouldn't matter if we had 1% unemployment and 1% interest rates and 1% wage increases a month - no sentiment, no market movement.

Just to add yet another anecdote story to the economy doom and gloom (sorry I just tells like like I's hears it) one of our customers is involved in steel fabrications for things like large scale canopies etc. He is pretty quiet ATM.

He has been using a PVC company (they supply the actual tent materials for these structures) for years. A multi-million dollar per year company.

That PVC company has taken the bat and ball and moved O/S. More jobs gone that never did hit the news.

He now supplies the same materials to my customer for $650 approx, where the same job previously would have been $1000 approx.

And today; one of our customers who is a furniture agent - ghostly quiet in her chosen area of business apparently.

Get rid of the CT and CTS and keep the Mines going!

 

[Ausprop]

sentiment is in the Thomas H Crapper. it wouldn't matter if we had 1% unemployment and 1% interest rates and 1% wage increases a month - no sentiment, no market movement.

but the market is moving? and this wave of bearism is only 8 weeks or so old. even the beachside holiday spots have well and truly turned the corner, coul dbe a big summer for those markets.

despite all the noise being made, I haven't seen clearer entry signals for a long long time

 

[Jake D]

but the market is moving? and this wave of bearism is only 8 weeks or so old. even the beachside holiday spots have well and truly turned the corner, coul dbe a big summer for those markets.

despite all the noise being made, I haven't seen clearer entry signals for a long long time

Shhhhh. I need Busselton to be cheep for the next few months.

 

[Ausprop]

Shhhhh. I need Busselton to be cheep for the next few months.

lower or higher price points? <$600k and >$5m have been hot down there, agent was telling me only this morning that $600-800k is now drying up.

as with a lot of markets, the middle tier around the $1.2-1.5m is where there is some great buying

 

[Jake D]

lower or higher price points? <$600k and >$5m have been hot down there, agent was telling me only this morning that $600-800k is now drying up.

as with a lot of markets, the middle tier around the $1.2-1.5m is where there is some great buying

entry level. Under 400.

 

[The Fence]

Its a boom alright..!

 

[Ausprop]

entry level. Under 400.

personally at that level I would go house and land if there is still any affordable blocks around, out in vasse or something?

 

[INVSTOR]

personally at that level I would go house and land if there is still any affordable blocks around, out in vasse or something?

Why is that? Nicer demographic?

 

[Ausprop]

Why is that? Nicer demographic?

well... could be wrong but I can't imagine $400k buying much in the way of established housing, by buying h&l you can usually manufacture some equity and if you are the end user then the project is de-risked.

 

[INVSTOR]

well... could be wrong but I can't imagine $400k buying much in the way of established housing, by buying h&l you can usually manufacture some equity and if you are the end user then the project is de-risked.

Yes, your right! I've been looking at small, dumpy rentals too long (not suitable for families).

 

[Jake D]

I'm thinking if I'm going to be in Busso, I want to be able to walk to the beach (with 3 and 1yo in tow) and Vasse is the wrong side of the highway.

Also, H&L are all tiny blocks. Unless RE.com is lying to me I can still get a decent sized block with a dumpy cottage on it for mid 300s.