Canberra - PS cuts

[Monkey]

Quick question, and v. sorry if already posted here recently (first time back in a while)...

In broad terms, what does the medium term future (1-5 years) hold for the Canberra property market given foreshadowed public sector cuts in the forthcoming budget and possible deeper cuts under a coalition government?

Particularly interested in (1) houses in Curtin and (2) apartments in the inner south.

thank you!

George Burns (I mean, Monkey)

 

[DJBarnstar]

I think it is probably the clean out that the sector needs, but it the grand scheme of things it will only be a very small percentage of jobs and most of those will be voluntary anyway.

But as for the question I think we will see about 3 years of flat prices here before the next upswing. I think we were going to have that anyway without the job cuts.

 

[geoffw]

Many years ago PS job cuts meant flat to declining prices for long periods. This hasn't happened to any extent at all in more recent years- the property boom has been too strong to some extent; but I believe that there's been a much stronger private sector, which has cushioned the effects of PS cuts.

 

[VYBerlinaV8]

I think it is probably the clean out that the sector needs, but it the grand scheme of things it will only be a very small percentage of jobs and most of those will be voluntary anyway.

But as for the question I think we will see about 3 years of flat prices here before the next upswing. I think we were going to have that anyway without the job cuts.

This is exactly what I was going to write - saved me the trouble!

 

[TomW]

Many years ago PS job cuts meant flat to declining prices for long periods. This hasn't happened to any extent at all in more recent years- the property boom has been too strong to some extent; but I believe that there's been a much stronger private sector, which has cushioned the effects of PS cuts.

There weren't any large scale PS job cuts in Canberra during the property boom (last ones were in the first couple of years of Howard's first term).

 

[Francesco]

Any cuts would probably come by way of natural attrition, voluntary redundancy and transfers. Cuts usually come by way of cut backs to travel, private consultancies, contractors and casual staffing. There are always new policy programs being thought of or modifications to existing ones to reallocate staffing resources to.

 

[Jamie M]

Totally agree with barnstar.

Additionally - I'd also be hesitant to purchase any OTP at the moment (if that's what you're referring to by apartments in the inner south). The good old days of decent CG between exchange and settlement may not be upon us now.

Properties are still selling - I know I've got clients buying. I recently exchanged on a new PPOR in the inner north as well.

Cheers

Jamie

 

[geoffw]

There weren't any large scale PS job cuts in Canberra during the property boom (last ones were in the first couple of years of Howard's first term).

There have been a series of smaller cuts (possibly not durinte stimulus spending though). I did see some series of redundancies in the department I was working which were not generally announced.

It's almost a given that any government will seek to trim the number of employees.

 

[Dazz]

It's almost a given that any government will seek to trim the number of employees.

Hi Geoff,


See below for an interesting graph of PS jobs spread over 20 years. Make from it what you will. Both political parties seem to be both up and down at varying times.


http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/2782930.html

 

[Aaron_C]

It's almost a given that any government will seek to trim the number of employees.

um....are you sure about that? It seems like a new government agency is created every day...

 

[geoffw]

Hi Geoff,


See below for an interesting graph of PS jobs spread over 20 years. Make from it what you will. Both political parties seem to be both up and down at varying times.


http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/2782930.html

I stand corrected. The department I was working for appeared to have redundancies offered very regularly. But at the same time other departments were growing- I did at the same time see expansion in the policing sector, now that I think of it.

 

[geoffw]

Totally agree with barnstar.

Additionally - I'd also be hesitant to purchase any OTP at the moment (if that's what you're referring to by apartments in the inner south). The good old days of decent CG between exchange and settlement may not be upon us now.

There does appear to be a very large quantity of high density housing coming online- high rise apartments and student accommodation especially- at least around Belconnen. That may well affect prices.

 

[Nemo30]

There are definitely budget cutbacks, but it isn't affecting staff at the moment... in fact my dept is currently recruiting.

 

[recruit2]

Gov jobs won't be slashed, the word is that budget cuts will be managed by "vacancy management", that is, not re-hiring when people resign/retire etc.

It typically won't be a huge slump, but just a slow down where things go sideways for a while.

Longer term the place will keep ticking over, it always does! And the amount of land is continually running out, so I can't see the market collapsing. Well located property will do well.