Relief is coming, mortgages rate in UK are falling:
from:http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/52943/Credit-crunch-We-really-are-over-the-worst
Credit Crunch: We Really Are Over The Worst
- Thread starter boz
- Start date
The Australia weekend edition says that another couple hundred regional banks are set to fail over the next 2 years as more subprime loans come off their honeymoon rates. Although maybe this will be cushioned (a bit) by the Fed keeping IRs at 1%.
Anecdotally - and I have no idea where to find this statistically - friends tell me it is extremely difficult to move goods off US docks. There is a 6 week wait to get onto a container ship leaving the US because with the US dollar so cheap - they are going through a mini manufacturing export boom. I have nothing to back that up - but thats what Im hearing from people that import machinery into Australia from the US. They have to airfreight it because they cant get a slot on a boat.
Anecdotally - and I have no idea where to find this statistically - friends tell me it is extremely difficult to move goods off US docks. There is a 6 week wait to get onto a container ship leaving the US because with the US dollar so cheap - they are going through a mini manufacturing export boom. I have nothing to back that up - but thats what Im hearing from people that import machinery into Australia from the US. They have to airfreight it because they cant get a slot on a boat.
It would be interesting to see how rates for sea freight from to and from the US are faring. Many years ago I used to have some interest in sea freighting through my work and rates to and from the US were the most expensive.
I don't think so Tim......
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7515088.stm
House prices 'will keep falling'
House prices in the UK and the US are likely to fall for another two years, the chairman of one of the world's most powerful banks has warned.
Sir Win Bischoff of Citigroup told BBC Business Editor Robert Peston he expects it will take two years for the markets to "stabilise".
Sir Win also expected the credit crunch - fraught conditions in financial markets - to continue through 2009.
Citigroup lost $2.5bn (£1.25bn) in the three months to the end of June 2008.
The figures were less than analysts had been expecting.
Nonetheless, the announcement took cumulative losses at the bank - until recently the world's largest - to $17bn (£8.5bn) over the previous nine months.
Sir Win told the BBC that there would be redundancies at the bank, which employs 12,000 in the UK - some of them compulsory.
Our correspondent said the remarks by Sir Win, who chairs one of the largest consumer banks in the world, carry weight.
Citigroup is shedding assets and cutting costs by shedding staff to cope with the new financial conditions.
The interview was broadcast on the BBC News Channel at 2230 BST, in the first of a new series of interviews with business leaders, called Leading Questions.
Sir Win's warning comes against a backdrop of gloomy forecasts elsewhere.
One of Britain's major mortgage lenders, Halifax, has also claimed that house prices are falling at their fastest rate since the 1990s house price crash.
During the past year it said properties had lost 6.1% of their value.
But the credit crunch has made it difficult for buyers, especially first-timers hoping to get on the property ladder, to get a mortgage.
'Rent first, buy later'
This has spurred Halifax and other major lenders including Nationwide and Abbey to announce some cuts in mortgage rates to try and help existing borrowers.
The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, which records the numbers of people moving house, says the figures are at their lowest level since they started collecting the data in 1978.
Last week Housing Minister Caroline Flint announced a series of government measures to try and combat the problem.
These include a "rent first, buy later" scheme for some in England whose household earnings are less than £60,000.
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http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,24040215-664,00.html
Fasten your belts
Article from: AAP
Barefoot Investor Scott Pape
July 19, 2008 12:00am
QUESTION: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are:
(a) A couple of washed-up 1970s porn stars?
(b) US mortgage houses that preside over $5 trillion in American mortgages?
(c) The potential trigger for a decline in worldwide housing prices?
If you're perplexed about what happened on Wall Street this week, you're not alone. In three simple points, here's the Barefoot lowdown on what's really going, and how it might affect you.
1. Sub-prime
Sub-prime loans were a symptom of the housing boom, not the cause.
After the tech wreck, the US Federal Reserve slashed rates from 6.5 per cent to 1 per cent. This made borrowing to buy houses (and plasmas, and plastic surgery) very attractive.
The masses went on a property-buying binge, financed from the equity in their existing homes or by getting cheap new loans.
Towards the end of the boom, the big banks started scraping the bottom of the barrel, offering the infamous sub-prime loans – 100 per cent loans to people who couldn't afford them.
They fiddled the affordability figures by heavily discounting the "honeymoon period" for the first few years of the loan. And when the rates reverted back to normal, as they were always going to, it was not uncommon for an already struggling homeowner's repayments to double, or even triple, seemingly overnight.
Surprise!
The unemployed dude who sits on his couch all day playing Xbox and smoking doobies soon defaulted on his sub-prime mortgage. Duh!
Then all the Wall Street wizards who lent him and his mates the moolah were forced to write off hundreds of billions in losses. Double duh!
After that, Wall Street went into a funk. Banks stopped lending to each other. They called it the "credit crunch".
Everyone blamed the Xboxers – but it's important to remember they were simply the final (irrational) act of a long, drawn-out housing boom. The problem began with the prime (standard) mortgages.
2. Prime
The boom really began with average people taking out average loans. More than half of these mortgages were ultimately financed through two institutions – Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.
These financial institutions were set up in the 1930s to buy mortgages from lenders. This process freed the banks up to lend more money than they otherwise could – typically $10 for every $1 of capital. Stay with me.
Today Freddie and Fannie are public companies that are owned by shareholders. Yet because they control around $US5 trillion (that's with a T) in mortgages, the US Government has always implied that it would back them up if there were any problems.
So, if you were the chief of a publicly listed company whose losses would be picked up by the government, what would you do? Well, you would probably ramp up the risk to get a better bonus (and in the process lose billions), pay yourself a fortune (last year $US13 million), fudge the figures (Fannie Mae was implicated in accounting scandals in recent years), and then wave the white flag when things went pear-shaped.
While not technically "sub-prime", many of the loans that Freddie and Fannie oversaw had their own multi-year honeymoon rates.
Analysts estimate that some $US300 billion worth of these mortgages will jump to higher rates between now and 2011.
Consequently, house prices have fallen 20-odd per cent (the largest drop ever, with much further falls forecast) and a chain reaction has begun – more people are defaulting on their loans, and because of this there are fewer buyers wanting American mortgages.
Now there's a very real chance (which hit the headlines this week) that Freddie and Fannie could need to call in a favour from the Fed.
It's been said that the US can't afford not to bail out Freddie and Fannie if things get really bad – to do so would be tantamount to the US defaulting on its debts.
The three-step plan that the US Government came out with this week was designed to bolster confidence.
Still there are those who argue that if the housing market continues to slide, the Government may be forced to nationalise the companies – at huge cost.
The real loser would be the American taxpayer, and the US dollar would continue its downward slide as American politicians fire up the (already overworked) money-printing presses. Good news for the kids who want to go to Disneyland, bad news for dad (particularly if he's an exporter).
3. The (potential) Aussie fallout
Anyone with a variable mortgage understands that we in Australia are not insulated from the US credit crisis. All our major banks have ratcheted up their rates to counter increased funding costs.
Fifteen basis points between friends is fine, but if the US mismanages this latest crisis, and falls into a deep recession, the implications would be felt from New York to Newcastle.
This boom was born on the back of consumers spending money on credit, but using your house like an ATM is so 2004.
In its place are tougher times for many people both in Australia and around the world; they're heavily in debt at a time when asset prices are falling. They've got little savings. Their income is being eroded by rising prices (especially the cost of petrol).
The biggest financial risk for these people over the next few years, other than the bank jacking up rates even further, is losing their job – triggered by a slowdown in the US.
If this happened, bills would pile up. At the worst, their home could be repossessed. They would stop spending, which would eventually cause more people to lose their jobs.
What happens next in the world's largest economy is out of our hands, yet the risks of this financial crisis are real for everyone.
Now has never been a better time to batten down the hatches, pay off consumer credit, and start a solid savings program.
Tread your own path!
Interesting. Kiyosaki said a while back that he was pouring his money into bulk shipping companies. Here it is.
Thank you for the link.
And while I don't know the numbers - I suspect the owners of bulk ore carriers are making a killing out of Australia's commodities boom.
And now that I stop and think about it - LNG carriers will make a killing out of emissions trading.
Something to think about that I had not previously considered. Its analgous to Cisco making a killing on the internet boom by providing the routers that run the internet.
And while I don't know the numbers - I suspect the owners of bulk ore carriers are making a killing out of Australia's commodities boom.
And now that I stop and think about it - LNG carriers will make a killing out of emissions trading.
Something to think about that I had not previously considered. Its analgous to Cisco making a killing on the internet boom by providing the routers that run the internet.
US made farm machinery is in hot demand around the world. There is a 10 month wait for most stuff. Plus caterpillar mining equipment. Most diesel engines in the world are US made, as in cummins or Detroit or GM or caterpillar.
The low US dollar will re-invigorate their whole economy and make them competitive again, just like the low Aussie dollar saved the Oz ecomomy from 1999 to 03 when we were 'old economy' and energy, resources and food were almost worthless.
See ya's.
Hiya Sunder
I share your lack of immediate confidence.............................the news is good so far
105 % lends weren't offered by banks per se in OZ, though via a couple of "mortgage managers".
I do shar your view that this is a strong indicator of lender sentiment !
ta
rolf
I share your lack of immediate confidence.............................the news is good so far
105 % lends weren't offered by banks per se in OZ, though via a couple of "mortgage managers".
I do shar your view that this is a strong indicator of lender sentiment !
ta
rolf
Hi haven't posted for awhile. I think that if it wasn't for the oil prices, that the credit crisis would start unwinding itself pretty soon.
I would like to find the link but I read an article about somebody who went and found the newspaper articles on the day that a market reached bottom before starting backup again. The articles were all around how things were only going to get worse. I'm not saying we have reached the bottom, but we wont know about it until 6 months afterward it happens. Nobody was calling Commodity boom until 12 months after it started.
Looking historically at these things, I would have predicted that the recovery would be soon but this peak oil problem is a unique issue and it is hard to apply what has happened in the past when something is happening that may completely change all economies.
I wish I had some funds at the moment (I've gone self employed and stuck buying into a development that I don't want etc etc). I would look and slowly buy some property
I would like to find the link but I read an article about somebody who went and found the newspaper articles on the day that a market reached bottom before starting backup again. The articles were all around how things were only going to get worse. I'm not saying we have reached the bottom, but we wont know about it until 6 months afterward it happens. Nobody was calling Commodity boom until 12 months after it started.
Looking historically at these things, I would have predicted that the recovery would be soon but this peak oil problem is a unique issue and it is hard to apply what has happened in the past when something is happening that may completely change all economies.
I wish I had some funds at the moment (I've gone self employed and stuck buying into a development that I don't want etc etc). I would look and slowly buy some property
I don't believe that much it too,
but the stock market has gone up last week, specially on financial, in UK the libor rate has gone down and even the booming budget deficit didn't pull it up much, also it is true the IMF upgrade the world growth. Also thhe volatility of market and the big crash a week ago looks like capitulation time...
Worth considering that the end is near might be at least a chance
Some people have a slightly different perspective on the way the market will run over the next 6 months,and all Businesses will likley face tougher times in this year and 2009,but i can never understand why so many think the end is near,big crashes happen three times a year on the ASX,it's only the numbers and media buildup that are different each time..willair..Also thhe volatility of market and the big crash a week ago looks like capitulation time...
Worth considering that the end is near might be at least a chance
i think the fundamentals of the credit crunch are NEARLY done and dusted, now we just need banks to get over their self imposed tighter lending criteria and consumer sentiment needs to return and THEN it'll be over.
What about massive number of people in arears, but not yet in full default?
What about bank lending margins?
What about increasing unemployment?
What about secondary effects of oil prices upwards? We've only been "relieved" to 6 week lows. They're still double what they were a year ago.
did you not see the big, capital NEARLY bit in there...?
there's still a lot to happen, but then a lot has already happened.
there's still a lot to happen, but then a lot has already happened.
Yeah, but I call nearly at about 80%. I'd say it's closer to 50% done.
well, i think it's 80% done....in australia.
it's all relative, no point being picky with such a vague subject. arguing precentages is like>
q. how long is a piece of string?
labour. twice as long as half it's length, but we'll tax one half more than the other if you vote us in.
liberal. no, it's three times longer than a third of it's length, with a bit remaining that we can't account for, or recall why.
CSIRO. well, first we need to know the circumference of the string. assuming the string is a median of 1.0mm in Ø, we work in our 3.14159 pie rule, assume the volume with the median length and we come up with 4 times longer than a quarter of it's length. this assumes one quarter of the string stays active, however, string is just string and we recommend the entire string industry be changed to copper wire. we will require further funding to study to effects of the copper wire industry on the string industry first, though, before such change can be implemented.
Joe Citizen. a piece of what? we use rope here - i wish these questions could relate to the everyday man.
today tonight. the csiro recommends switching our string industry to copper. see how it affects YOU and why the pollies are doing nothing about it.
a current affair. the liberals can't account for 0.1% of their annual string budget. some say it's headed offshore to fund a new series of "how long is a piece of string" questions.
foreign correspondant. the impact of australian string exports, and how the copper wire insulation industry is already at breaking point.
labour. we'll put a copper wire industry in every major suburb in australia.
liberal. we'll double our string twining plants, supplying 20% over 5 years.
CSIRO. the doubling of string twinng plants will have an adverse affect on the copper wire insulation industry because....
it's all relative, no point being picky with such a vague subject. arguing precentages is like>
q. how long is a piece of string?
labour. twice as long as half it's length, but we'll tax one half more than the other if you vote us in.
liberal. no, it's three times longer than a third of it's length, with a bit remaining that we can't account for, or recall why.
CSIRO. well, first we need to know the circumference of the string. assuming the string is a median of 1.0mm in Ø, we work in our 3.14159 pie rule, assume the volume with the median length and we come up with 4 times longer than a quarter of it's length. this assumes one quarter of the string stays active, however, string is just string and we recommend the entire string industry be changed to copper wire. we will require further funding to study to effects of the copper wire industry on the string industry first, though, before such change can be implemented.
Joe Citizen. a piece of what? we use rope here - i wish these questions could relate to the everyday man.
today tonight. the csiro recommends switching our string industry to copper. see how it affects YOU and why the pollies are doing nothing about it.
a current affair. the liberals can't account for 0.1% of their annual string budget. some say it's headed offshore to fund a new series of "how long is a piece of string" questions.
foreign correspondant. the impact of australian string exports, and how the copper wire insulation industry is already at breaking point.
labour. we'll put a copper wire industry in every major suburb in australia.
liberal. we'll double our string twining plants, supplying 20% over 5 years.
CSIRO. the doubling of string twinng plants will have an adverse affect on the copper wire insulation industry because....
I think the difference is important. If you thought it was 80% done, you would probably buy. If you thought it was 50% done, you'd hold out.
okay. you were right. the difference is massive. i apologise.
