data junkies

From: Stirling Reid


I would be interested to know if anyone keeps copies of old forecasts for property prices by city or by suburb made by the well known companies, and compares it with what actually happened.

I remember some figures quoted from economists on their forecasts of GDP, it may have been a Warren Buffet book. Not only did 75% of these economists get it wrong, they got the direction wrong. It was clearly a case of the exact opposite to what the experts say is the way to make money.

Stirling
 
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Reply: 1
From: Michael Yardney


What you say makes a lot of sense.
At the beginning of each year the BRW publishes a consensus of economist's predications for the coming year and for a number of years I kept these to see how things panned out.
In most cases taking a contrarian view (the opposite of the consensus) would have yielded better results.
This was because EVERY year there is an X factor - something unforeseen that creeps up and creates havoc.
Last year it was September 11th. This had a major effect on interest rates. A few years ago it was the Asian Meltdown.
It takes courage to go against the crowd, but in general I have found I can make more profit to be buying when others are keen to sell and vice versa
Michael Yardney
Metropole Properties
 
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