I heard a funny quote on this matter the other day " If you have access to an IPO you probably shouldn't be there". My personal assessment of the potential for investment in this IPO went a little like this:
Stats show that people are getting bored with FB in the developed countries, but it is being taken up at a greater rate by developing countries.
http://www.internetworldstats.com/facebook.htm
The problem with this from a commercial perspective is the demographics of users in countries where growth is slowing, stagnating or reducing are the ones with the spending power; professionals in the US, Europe and here in Oz. These defectors are the main target of FB advertising.
Growth is all in the developing countries now, and yes those people need toothpaste and the other essentials, and are naturally open to being directed by marketing for these items, but the return on invested advertising dollars is very low for toothpaste sold by a (slightly choked) shotgun approach like FB.
They just don't generate sales like New York Yuppies do with relevant click throughs to advertisers.
Hence the abysmal PE. Yes if they can hang in there until the average Indian worker can afford a new car they will do well, but in the meantime there is competition from other social platforms such as twitter, google+ etc etc etc growing fast and..... whatever shiny new thing comes along tomorrow. Perhaps privacy concerns and boredom will kill off social platforms alltogether, or at least radically change the way people use it. Who knows??
FB might make it, who knows? My crystal ball is very fogged up at the moment, but I can't see anything changing that quickly in my investment timeframe.
Given the dynamic development of the net, the fickle nature of the users, the still fresh memories of the dotcom collapse and the fact we still don't know where it is going I'll stick with things where the future can be somewhat predicted based on past occurrences.
I know..., I'll never be worth 27 billion. but I won't be burnt by tech stocks that I understand very little about either.
Cheers,
Beef.