Good find Red....I am unfamiliar with The NEw Matilda......but Scott Mitchell is dead right about the IMF predictions, the vacuous posturings of Rudd, and how economically illiterate and left leaning media let him get away with it.
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Agreed...Unlikely - that would be v. bad publicity.
The bottom line as I see it is that both fixed & var rates are unlikely to fall much from here.
His words: "If you can get the money now go for it as it might not be there in 6 months time". I said "fair enough" and handed over my application for pre-approval...
An update on rate expectations....
From the first post in this thread back in mid April, it's easy to see the shape & level of the yield curves for Feb & April.
There are a few significant points to note between the earlier curves and todays -
The trough rose until ~May7, then it descended steadily until May 18.
- the trough is getting higher - back in Feb the low was expected to be a little over 2.00% and rising in April to ~2.25%. Today it's expected to be slightly under 2.75%. It's looking more likely that there will be a single 0.25% cut from the RBA.
Only yesterday did May's downtrend reverse sharply.
From May 7-18, that rate was closing with Feb's forecast.....on May 18 there was only 15bps diff.
- todays expected cash rate for June '10 is ~60bps higher than it was in Feb.
- the RBA cash rate is expected to be 0.75% higher than todays cash rate within 18 months. This certainly wasn't the case back in February.
I hold the the market in higher regard than the posters here, and certainly higher than most economists. The market has been giving us higher lows (over the next few months) & higher highs (in 12-18 months). That trend has been in place for 3 months.Thanks for the update Keith, maybe i am a bit more naive, but i was under the impression that if the RBA keeps rates at 3%, there is less pressure in the future to raise rates quickly.
Hence with a 3% rate, there would be a longer period of time before interest rates go above 3%, than if say interest rates go to 2% (and go to above 3% in the future). This assumes all other factors being equal.
And the market is never wrong.