Global property collapse! .... Hmmmm

[rossv]

Hi all,

Sell, Sell, Sell!


http://www.nzherald.co.nz/money/mon...stment&thesecondsubsection=propertyinvestment




rossv

 

[Sunfish]

Hi all,

Sell, Sell, Sell!


rossv

Do you keep abreast of what's happening OS?

eg
The DOW30 is off 5% and the NASDAQ off 10% from recent highs.
1 in 7 US households declared personal bankrupcy last year.
AU households carry more debt than their US cousins.

The thinking Yanks are concerned, some alarmed!

Thommo the Grouch

 

[see_change]

The Economist seems to be the L Bernum of the media at the moment.

Was interested in this particular paragraph

" The US had had the biggest rise in house prices in its history since the mid-1990s, and a sharp fall in the market in the largest global economy would tip the world into recession "

Considering that we have a rapid rise in property prices on an average about every 7 - 10 years, then surely that statement is just confirming what happens every business cycle.

In my recollection we seem to have a recession every business cycle , so surely what they are looking at is part of the normal business cycle. Any sensible investor should be taking these aspects on board as part of their investment plan .

Makes for good headlines.

See Change

 

[Aceyducey]

The DOW30 is off 5% and the NASDAQ off 10% from recent highs.

And why are recent highs important? Short-term thinking!

US markets are still at around 18x, so many people still reckon they are a bit overvalued - Australian markets are at 15x

A 5-10% fluctuation is really not that significant in the short-term. What's the long-term trend.

The thinking Yanks are concerned, some alarmed!

And some are going so what! And some are too busy building property and/or share portfolios to really care what the economy is doing in the short-term...because they're looking at the long-term.


Thommo, don't think like a day trader!

It'll give you ulcers & bad night, which is bad for your health - and if you haven't got your health, how will you be able to appreciate how bad things are getting


BTW I particularly appreciate the turn of phrase used in the Economist article - very sensationalist!

The US had had the biggest rise in house prices in its history since the mid-1990s

Not just the biggest rise in house prices in ten years but biggest rise in house prices IN ITS HISTORY in the last ten years....

Is there an alternate history somewhere?

And:

"If the US falls it would be the first global property bust in history."

SO the US is the entire world now! And if there is a fall in property prices in the US it means the ENTIRE WORLD is having a property bust!

And US house prices have never fallen before?

hehehe - I think not!

Interesting how the Economic Editor (emphasis on Editor, not Economics....) claims property prices have a bigger impact on economies than the stock market....frankly I don't see much evidence of this. Property prices go up, property prices go down - people still live in houses....share prices go down & people sell them.

Cheers,

Aceyducey

 

[Tibor]

Thanks Ross,

I am now in panic mode and start to SELL SELL SELL


on second thoughts,



might wait until others will do it and then BUY BUY BUY


with yields not seen in the history (I think history now is the past 10 years or so??? )

and will watch closely what the yanks are doing (so will not miss out on anything HERE)

 

[Sunfish]

And why are recent highs important? Short-term thinking!

US markets are still at around 18x, so many people still reckon they are a bit overvalued - Australian markets are at 15x

A 5-10% fluctuation is really not that significant in the short-term. What's the long-term trend.

And some are going so what! And some are too busy building property and/or share portfolios to really care what the economy is doing in the short-term...because they're looking at the long-term.


Thommo, don't think like a day trader!

It'll give you ulcers & bad night, which is bad for your health - and if you haven't got your health, how will you be able to appreciate how bad things are getting


BTW I particularly appreciate the turn of phrase used in the Economist article - very sensationalist!

Not just the biggest rise in house prices in ten years but biggest rise in hourse prices IN ITS HISTORY in the last ten years....

Is there an alternate history somewhere?

And:

SO the US is the entire world now! And if there is a fall in property prices in the US it means the ENTIRE WORLD is having a property bust!

hehehe - I think not!

Interesting how the Economic Editor (emphasis on Editor, not Economics....) claims property prices have a bigger impact on economies than the stock market....frankly I don't see much evidence of this. Property prices go up, property prices go down - people still live in houses....share prices go down & people sell them.

Cheers,

Aceyducey

Ah! Acey. In the long term we're all dead. So at my age I've to think a little shorter than many here.

But seriously, you can only plan to retire. By that I don't mean you give up everything on retirement merely that after then everthing should be voluntry, including planning. So I am already past the age when the more successful among us will have retired, and have only a few years before the knees (not ulcers) force that upon me.

So I am pushing a little and get caught up in the "day trading" bit sometimes. But pushing this way focuses the mind. Because I cannot afford to ride out any slump I must try to avoid the slump in the first place, so I DO watch the US daily.

The 5-10% drops in the US indicies mentioned are significant in my mind because they "prove" that the recent bull market was a hoax and that it was a bear market rally. Nothing rises or falls in a straight line but it is all downhill from here. You would know Acey but others may not; Within 12mths of the Wall St Crash in '29 the markets regained most of their losses only to reverse again and drop much further than ever. So the smart investors (those who took note of value) had a chance to get out with modest losses. So! Is an inner Syd hovel good value at half a mill? Even if I could, I would not comment on this because I don't own one.

I guess the reason I study the US is because the data on AU isn't out there and I still believe the old mot "When America sneezes Australia catches cold". So I will continue to read and occasionally chirp like a canary in a mine (bad analogy I know, they just died) Every forum needs a grouch don't they?

Thommo the grouch.