markpatric said:
Smart move Kenneth, selling out of the Gold Coast and moving into the Perth market!.
Do you think the Perth market is nearing it`s peak right now, or as some say is it still a year off?, it is not always an easy thing to judge.
I think Perth is at it`s peak.
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Dear Markpatric,
1. This performance for the Rockingham suburb which I am presently investing has been excellent for the past few years and will have another 2 years to go, with reference to the completion of the new A$1.5 billion Perth-Rockingham-Mandurah Railway Line Project, together with several highrise apartment developments taking place at its Rockingham Beach Coastal Road beachfront area and ongoing suburb re-zoning and re-development activities actively taking place.
2. With such underlying major infrastructural and other property developments and favorable timing of the property cycle stage supporting its market at this point in time, the annual capital growth has been tremendous : 40% in 2003, 29.6% in 2004 with its average 5 years annual growth rate on the increase from 11.%p.a to 16.6% p.a.
3. Its growth is thus, considered "atypical" of the normal property cycle though it is partially/largely? supported by it to a certain extent.
4. Because of this "atypical" growth, I am also using "aytpical" investing strategy of "safely" concentrating all my property purchases into this one single surburb, (and this is a one-off practice under certain exceptional factors considerations which I will NOT recommend the new/novice investors to do) instead of spreading out my investments to different suburbs area for safety reasons through diversification, as was conventionally advocated by most of the existing property investing gurus.
5. Once the new Railway Line Project is completed in end 2006/early 2007, I plan to sell off 50% of my existing property portfolio in 2007 and re-invest eslewhere, probably into the Melbourne property market, while holding onto the remaining properties for long term capital growth, in view of the continuing resource boom and immigratrion increase trend in WA.
6. Likely Sydney, I believe that the Melbourne property market has more or less bottomed out this year and is likely to soon commence on its Recovery Phase officially in 2006, and with the Commonwealth Games scheduled to be held in Mebourne in March 2006, as the likely trigger evernt to officially kick-start the recovery phase, it will be another exciting investing ride there over the next few years, following its normal property cycle upwards trend.
7. I agree that it is not always easy to pro-actively judge when exactly is the market peak and market bottom.
8. But as long as we know exactly what we are doing and what to monitor and expect regarding a particular market situation and know how to play the property investing game ourselves, there is still much monies to be made, using timing and the nature of the property cycle to profit ourselves, even though we do/may not know exactly which year and month that the particular property market will/expected to "peak" and "bottomed out".
9. We continually learn from doing personal evaluation and constant review about our previous pro-active "calculated guess"/assessment about a particular property market vis-a-vis its subsequent acutal market performance. In this way, we are continuing to learn more about ourselves, the property cycle, the actual performance of the particular state/suburb property markets, the accuracy and reliability of our own calculated guess/assessment so as to further improve on our own property investing knowledge and skills.
10. Having said this, we must always bear in mind that past performance/market trends do not always neccessarily guarantee its future performance, though most of the time it does generally follow its past property cycle/market trends unless due to some underlying significant change in the market conditions which we may not be fully aware of, the property cycle/market trend start to deviate again.
11. This is exactly the case for the Rockingham suburb back in 2002, which remain largely un-discovered among the local people there when the investment opportunity was first spotted. Fortunately, it has eventually turn out to be a newly discovered "unpolished gem turned diamond" kind of gem -find now and the local people are all starting to rush in and buy into the suburb.
12. To me, the key to this successful investing, is having quality research and conducting our own independant due diligence, including actual personal field trips to the suburb concerned so as to "see"/assess things for ourselves on the ground in order to properly investigate and check out a particular investing opportunity.
13. For your kind update, please.
14. Thank you.
regards,
Kenneth KOH