Heated market strategy

W

WebBoard

Guest
From: Anthony Zullo



Hi all,

My wife and I have been reading through the advice given to many by Les, Mike, Geoff1, TW and really appreciate this type of forum (and generous spirit!) which allows people like us to move forward on our PI plans with better confidence and common sense. Thankyou!

We have a question, perhaps it's rhetorical, but I'll ask it nevertheless. We are ready to buy our 2nd IP after buying the 1st one last Oct. We are looking in Port Macq again (although we are from Sydney) as we are familiar with the area, have accom up there if we need to renovate any properties, and believe it is a good place to find buy&hold properties (we're about 30yrs, and want to hold for many yrs).

To get to the question - should we be looking to buy now whilst the market is so heated? We have been looking for 6 weeks or so,and after much low offering (about 20 props over a 6week period, the low offers matching an acceptable % return), we are finding that it’s at the peak end of a sellers market.

Do you think it would be a good idea to keep looking and making offers, though really getting set for when the economic conditions change to suit more a buyers market? Of course, we are happy to keep looking because we enjoy this as a hobby and have a real interest in it apart from the fact that we know this is planning for the future.

Thanks for any advice.

Rgds
Zul
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Reply: 1
From: Les .



G'day Zul,

Interesting question - there are lots of glib answers as you would probably have read in the forum. But whenever I hear people asking this, I think what they need is to reread Geoff1's "cookie store" story.

And, with Mike's efforts, it's right here on this "front" page of the current forum - under "Geoff1's Biog"


The major point being that Geoff1 kicked a huge goal simply by being "out there" - being there at the right time, and prepared to move. And the MAJOR point was that it was a "don't care" deal for him - he was filling in time, and really didn't care if he bought that one or not.

Part of that "don't care" factor can also come about from the state of the property - the "yuck" factor. Some of the best deals come from these "yuck" properties - because EVERYONE feels/smells/sees it the same way. So the price goes WAY down.

So, Zul, keep on putting in your low offers, and you will soon be telling us all about YOUR cookie store !!

Regards,

Les


- "Eschew Obfuscation" - ;^)
 
Last edited by a moderator:
W

WebBoard

Guest
Reply: 1.1
From: Anthony Zullo


Good call Les, we'll definitely keep on the case.
"Yuk" is gold!
Zul
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Reply: 2
From: Rolf Latham


Hi Anthony

You have answered your own question.

We find we are at the peak of a sellers market.

I heard that 12 months, 18 months and 2 years ago about the Sydey Market too, and its back on the run --- AGAIN.

If you are looking at loooooong term buy and hold the small abberation where you may pay 10 % more today than in 2 years time will be close to irrelevant in 30 years time. John Edwards from Residex will tell you theres always a good buy regardless of the state of the market IF you pay the right price for that market.

The above may NOT apply if you have very limited means of deposit today. That makes it even harder for you, because you may lose a few paper dollars, OR you may lose out alltogether because you failed to enter the market.

Time manages almost all risks.

Anyone looked at the Sunday Tele today ??

Ta

Rolf
 
Last edited by a moderator:
W

WebBoard

Guest
Heated market. OPINIONS PLEASE

Reply: 2.1
From: Gee Cee Clay


I also feel similar to Ralph. If you are in there LONG term , well it don't matter too much. Just don't overgear and be wiped out when % rates rise.

However at present I believe we are getting up towards the top 20% of the wave.

Therefore I am downselling my portfolio of older places. (Market is crazy. Places sell for more than listing price within a couple of days).

Sitting back and will buy back into market in around 3 to 5 yrs.

Just my old pessimistic approach. Market looks very similar to what I saw in 1978-79. Then 1987 to 1988. 2001 to ???

Mind you if you look hard enough now you will find a few good buys. However i believe a lot of good buys will surface at a later date.

Only my thoughts. Please do not see it as advise!

Gee Cee

Pessimistic, Conservative, Old Fart.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
W

WebBoard

Guest
Heated market. OPINIONS PLEASE Tele

Reply: 2.1.1
From: Gee Cee Clay


Hey Ralph.

I don't buy the Sunday papers. (Too dear). And have not been through the re cycling bins at the park yet.

What was in the Sunday Telegraph??

Happy reading

Gee Cee
 
Last edited by a moderator:
W

WebBoard

Guest
Heated market. OPINIONS PLEASE

Reply: 2.1.2
From: Anthony Zullo


Some very good (and valued) opinions from both Rolf and Gee Cee. We feel like time is going to be kind to us as long as we are careful enough, but are wary of being too keen just because we're financially ready to go again.

Rolf, yep cut out that Telegraph clipping on the booming Port Macq market. Is anyone else focusing on the mid-North Coast?

I guess it's just a matter of staying focused and determined and the right place will come up at the right time.

Zul
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Heated market. OPINIONS PLEASE

Reply: 2.1.2.1
From: Alan Hill


Zul,

Wasn't just Port Macquarie article.....Sydney Auction results were fairly high too......examples of $100,000 over reserve etc.

I'm with you Rolf, people have been saying we've reached the peak in Sydney for 12-18 months now and yet still up it goes! Hardly any stock in our area at present.

They've got to be right sooner or later though!

:)
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Heated market. OPINIONS PLEASE

Reply: 2.1.2.1.1
From: J Parker


Just wait until interest rates hit 10% again and there goes the boom....
Cheers, Jacque :)
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Heated market. OPINIONS PLEASE

Reply: 2.1.2.1.1.1
From: Paul Zagoridis


But prices could go up 15-50% before interest rates hit 10%. Then the bust will take 10%-15% off the PEAK values.

Do your numbers, build a contingency and remember life two certainties

Paul Zag
Dreamspinner
The Oz Film Biz site is archived at...
http://wealthesteem.dyndns.org/
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Top