This is hobo- jo's thinking from another thread
Cliff
Those graphs make QLD look more and more appetizing.
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This is hobo- jo's thinking from another thread
Cliff
Don't see a massive correction. Maybe a 10-12% dip over 24 months from late 2015/early 2016 before flattening. Anything after that is too hard to pick.
Where is that Hong Kong property correction people have been waiting for 10 years? Eh?
http://www.google.com.au/url?url=ht...EQFjAB&usg=AFQjCNGa2-7HRVAy_k1BGOa0q9yXomOHSQ
Last time I looked , a 10 -12 % dip would be fairly large in historical terms
Cliff
Last time I looked , a 10 -12 % dip would be fairly large in historical terms
Cliff
Where is that Hong Kong property correction people have been waiting for 10 years? Eh?
http://www.google.com.au/url?url=ht...EQFjAB&usg=AFQjCNGa2-7HRVAy_k1BGOa0q9yXomOHSQ
For now though October is famous for a pullback in the market decided so Ive decided to sit on the sidelines for the next month .....
Yes it is , and often in the past when people get nervous about shares they look for safer alternatives like , govt bonds , term deposits and property
Cliff
As an Aussie I'd be all over it if the market had another 61% pullback here in HK, only to have watched the prices double & triple over the past few years. Entry level market for a shoe box is definitely out of reach unless you have a spare 130+k AUD!
I think the biggest reason for a market pullback is when rates go up & people have extended themselves too far. Wonder how many are leveraging themselves on 90%+ LVR's & not factoring in rates going higher in the future. Currently my small portfolio sits neutral but for every 1% rise would cost me over 15k a year in pre-tax expenses.. Anything more than 2% higher & things become interesting!
For now though October is famous for a pullback in the market decided so Ive decided to sit on the sidelines for the next month & see if the AUD continues to go lower, there are always events going on in the world but right now too many for my liking at the same time... geopolitical tensions in Ukraine / Iraq involvement now with the Aus terror alert being raised to high / Ebola not contained / China slowing .. interesting times!
Haha prices are not going to pull back 61% in HK. People have been waiting for that since 2006. And since 1999 in Australia.
A lower AUD would support higher Australian house prices.
My friend hobo-jo is one of our perma bears ( I apologise if I'm wrong , but that's the way i see it at this stage )
I know there will be a correction at some stage , but I think it's years away
There may well be slow downs but a decent correction where only the brave dare to buy is not on the immediate horizon IMHO .
Would appreciate peoples thoughts on when people think a correction will hit .
Btw .i know there isn't one property market ...
Cliff
So I'm talking something in the range of 5-15 % . The sort of think that occurs at the end of every cycle .
In absolute dollar terms , not adjusted for inflation / economic growth or some other such manipulation . That just leaves things open to interpretation. , statistical manipulation.
Cliff
But, not much has shifted since a year ago, other than the interest rates staying low for a prolonged period, and a bit of a jump in buyer sentiment.
.
We bought our second PPOR in 94 .
Cliff