Investors could create housing bubble: RBA

or build more modest abodes, as per the 70s etc

agreed 100% again, John. :D

you're making too much sense mate. back in your box. :D

i'm already seeing this. people who were in with me wanting 3x2+study, DG, high ceilings, stone tops, oh cbrds etc and are back 3 months later now talking about a basic 3x2 with DG and no niceties because the market aint paying above 'x' amount regardless of what it is.
 
it's the same story all around the world. the only difference is our region is fairing a lot better than most because we have #1 and #2 of the world's largest emerging "people of the middling sort" population bases who want new homes and flash cars and need the raw material from somewhere like here.....or Ghana.
I'm trying to decipher this, Australia's strengths are?
- Middle class domestic demand for houses and cars
- Australia's resources

Despite the fact that Australia imports more than it exports.
 
...........
I'm trying to decipher this, Australia's strengths are?
- China's and India's (and Malaysia's and Indonesia's and Thailand's and Saudi Arabia's and....) Middle class domestic demand for houses and cars
- Australia's resources

Despite the fact that Australia imports more than it exports.
 
Only once the latent supply is diminished and population growth continues apace.

okay - do i need to post the graphs from the ABS again?

more people are living alone. they buy 4 bed houses for the space, not to share it. therefore, the room demand is, if anything, increased, through single homebuyers "hoarding" rooms.

don't start on this again.
 
okay - do i need to post the graphs from the ABS again?

more people are living alone. they buy 4 bed houses for the space, not to share it. therefore, the room demand is, if anything, increased, through single homebuyers "hoarding" rooms.

don't start on this again.
I'm well aware of the utilisation statistics for Australian housing. They're ridiculous. They represent huge latent supply. As do the 'holiday homes'. The next census is going to make this laughable situation even more ridiculous.
 
it's the aussie lifestyle.

you're asking an entire country to change their lifestyle to provide more housing to the market to the value of their asset can drop? you don't see a problem with this.....where?

FWIW, holiday homes are "generally" house-sat or rented or house-swapped for lenghty periods of time.

either that, or they're periodically rented, adding tourism dollars to the economy.

it's like saying there'll be a drop in commercial property prices because everyone has a spare factory unit. if they ain't coming to market, they can be vacant all they like.
 
i understand your argument and it makes perfect sense - IF the ABS didn't tell a completely opposite story.

if i've learned ONE THING over the past 10 years, it's that a spike in prices occurs in one of two scenarios

1) the price is so low comparitive to similar product that the intrinsic value is recognised immediately (ala Melb 2008).

2) the price is so ridiculously high, that there's so much fluff and confidence that the price will continue like this forever that panic buying ensues. often happens in precious metal runaways whereby overbought stocks/metals continue to spike and drive into ridiculously high territory (ala gold 1979-81, Perth 2004-2007, gold/plat/pall/silv/diam 2011).

yes, sell off ensue. yes, pain for those that bought at the top.
 
There's currently no demand because people are drunk on credit and mistakenly think that they're wealthy. It's no different to any other bubble.

credit? where? i can't see any bank lending to anyone that isn't 6 months full time employed with one employer from in the same industry they've been in for the last 2+ years.

this isn't 2006 anymore.
 
i understand your argument and it makes perfect sense - IF the ABS didn't tell a completely opposite story.
The ABS only provides the statistics, I haven't seen them try to interpret this anomaly and I'd love to see them try. The only explanation I can proffer for people wasting all this space is that either they see it as an investment or they're being prevented from trading down. Whatever the case I don't believe it is sustainable with the current cost of housing.
 
The ABS only provides the statistics, I haven't seen them try to interpret this anomaly and I'd love to see them try. The only explanation I can proffer for people wasting all this space is that either they see it as an investment or they're being prevented from trading down. Whatever the case I don't believe it is sustainable with the current cost of housing.

i agree 100%. but it doesn't change the situation, nor is it likely to change it in the near-medium term future.

i use ABS stat anomalies all the time to point out market deficiencies for investors. they're wide and varied.

example Tom Price median wage $2200. median rent - $54. pull away mining money and rent assist/dole money, and it's actually $1008 median wage and $1000 median rent. shortage much?

maybe there is no explanation as to why the space is wasted. maybe it's being wasted purely because people want to.

and that's a variable.
 
credit? where? i can't see any bank lending to anyone that isn't 6 months full time employed with one employer from in the same industry they've been in for the last 2+ years.

this isn't 2006 anymore.

Eh..

CBA - FHB loan approval for Casual employee 3 months in job, new industry.

It is still happening.
 
Eh..

CBA - FHB loan approval for Casual employee 3 months in job, new industry.

It is still happening.

FHB's are an anomaly to me. how is it i can prove 4 years of earnings in the same industry for 10 years and keep getting rejected because i'm self employed with 40% deposit and their serviceability calculation is lower than a 21yo FHB with mum and dad equity and a dead end receptionist job 3 days a week?

blows my mind.
 
I should hope my household debt is increasing by more than 7%!

Margin top-up's keeping at 70% LVR, that would be a very poor portfolio performance otherwise :p
 
BayView thinks that wages will rise to meet property prices, I don't think this is possible for many reasons.

Can you show me where I said that specifically?

I didn't. What I said was that wages will always go up and so will rents and property values.

They all rise independantly of each other unfortunately, and as they do, they often balance out to a degree at various times.

For example, if say, the average rental yield for a suburb is currently around 2% (hypothetical), this would indicate that there has been a recent boom in values, and rents haven't moved in step with them.

As an investor, you'd be doing yourself a disservice to buy in that suburb right now. Homeowners probably wouldn't care, however.

The boom has ended; noone is buying, but wages and costs of living (rent) still continue to increase.

So, over the next few years after the boom, the rents will catch up to the house values a bit. Amazing, but true.

Finally; as I've said repeatedly - because I've been around in this game for longer than many of you have lived, I have seen how this always occurs. No speculation, no sliderules or spreadsheets; just observation of humans living on Earth.

The younger brigade haven't seen it yet, and are therefore more likely to have the belief that "property is way too expensive; how will we ever afford a home", "wages will never catch up these house prices" and so on. Their view is mostly the here and now, which is understandable.

But they always do...eventually.

Why? Couldn't tell yers, but this is what I have seen.

Here's another example just to bore yers a bit more; when I bought my first PPoR, it cost $87k. My g/friend and I bought it together, and it was a bit of a stretch.

Now, that same girl is earning $250k per year, and lives in a house in Kew worth about $3 mill with her husband. (We are not together as you can guess, but still friends).

And yes; it's a bit of a stretch for them.
 
Can you show me where I said that specifically?
I apologise for giving the impression that you stated this specifically. The implication however is clear.

While you may be around for a long time your experience would seem to be limited to Australia? Other countries have seen substantial falls in real estate prices in your lifetime and have also seen substantial falls in wages in real terms. Are you denying that this could ever be a possibility in Australia? i.e. are you of the view that 'Australia is different'?
 
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