IP Strategy for the Future?

Hi Guys,

I'm looking to purchase an IP for capital growth.
Much of the literature i've been reading suggests I look for a major CBD inner-city / inner-suburban property with proven record of CG, which the figures suggest will double in value every 7-10 yrs.

Many of these areas already have median prices in the $300-$450K. In 7-10 yrs, they'll be worth $600,000-$900,000.

In 7-10 yrs, boomers will be focused on the cost of living, stretching out their funds with many residing in lower-valued areas; The X-gen appear to be terrible savers; Wages and rents don't seem to keep pace with property prices - reducing the affordability and potential yield of inner-city / suburb purchases and reducing the potential buyer-pool should I intend to sell the property.

Is it reasonable to assume that a doubling in value is feasible and that there will still be a good buyer pool at these doubled prices? Or is the alternative a likely scenario - that the market won't support such a rise and therefore the likelihood of experiencing a doubling in value in 7-10 yrs simply won't happen to these properties ie. they will show much lower capital growth.

Given all of this, will the above investment strategy still be valid for the future, or should I look to modify this strategy by focusing more on those areas where a doubling in value appears more feasible - such as nice, undervalued outer areas in the $150-$175K range, which will, in 7-10 yrs, still be affordable to a large buyer pool; still be affordable in terms of rent; still offer reasonable yield etc and because of this demand, experience excellent capital growth?

Thanks for your thoughts.
Fish
 
Wow,

Thanks for all the feedback guys.

'Forum' - n. 'meeting or medium for open discussion or debate'.
'Discussion' - v. 'to consider something by talking it over.'

Collins Pocket English Dictionary.

Thank God for forums I say.

Fish
 
C'mon Fish - leave it a bit longer. Hopefully most forumites have better things to do on a spring sunday than hang around here!

Sure you will get some discussion through the week.

Cheers,
 
Hiya Fish

I dont think anyone has a crystal ball.

Your best guide for the future is often the past.

30 years ago my parents bought a place in Flemingtom Sydney, just below the median for the time. It was 23 000 in 1973.

In January 2002 they sold the property for 600 000, where the median was 557 000.

My point is that it seems property prices on the "average" seem to double every 7 to 10 years in all our capital cities. So it doesnt really matter too much what you buy, you will do ok long term.

While today's $ for a place may loom large, this has always been the case since federation.

23 000 in 1973 looks cheap in todays dollars, remember that a loaf of bread at retail was 29 c, a litre of petrol was the equivalent of 9 c.

What i believe happens is that prices will continue to double on average say every 10 years, and the demographic of the people that can afford to live in place x changes as time moves on. First home buyers have to move further from the cbd's


ta
rolf
 
Hey Fish,

I agree with Rolf - there's another thread where I said much the same thing earlier this weekend.

As to Gen-X being poor savers.....hmmmm - that's just hyperbole.

The Baby Boomers are the biggest consumerist junkies in history...Gen-X would have to work a LOT harder to trump their record.

Cheers,

Aceyducey
 
Beautiful day

Being a Generation X'er I spent the day wandering around not knowing where I was going, spending all of my saving money and living for the moment.

I also contemplated my place in the world before coming to no real conclusion, considered changing my job soon, and generally did nothing of real value.

I also shook my head at the fashion the rebellious generation Y girls are wearing these days and sat in a room full of baby boomers who were discussing their share portfolios.

Beautiful day it was.

WaySolid
 
I am going to be really curious what happens to property over the next 5 to 10 years. Property I am can see is great in high inflation, in low inflation it is still not to bad, but it does not wear away your debt. When inflation was at 10% I wish I could have bought as many properties I can get my hands on. I cannot see any logic reason to want to buy property at the moment (unless it is a real cheap, or you wanted to live in it). Just because the market has gone up so much, some people I have talked to about property believe that the prices can only go up, never down, they might sit at the same level for some years, but never go down.

Perception becomes reality, so prices might not go down .. but what happens if prices do drop and people start to believe this, you could get a fall .. I still do not see this happening any time soon. But I see no reason to take it off the possibility that it will happen.
 
Keep it simple - Supply and demand. Is there any relative fact that tells us today that there will be oversupply or deminished demand. And while a roof over our heads is one of the basic requirements, demand will be there. Deal in todays reality, the future is just that - the future.
We can speculate but I prefer to invest - time, money, blood, sweat and tears.
I think sometimes that as human beings we complicate things far to much. When you look at the product you are going to invest in, keep it simple - supply and demand, this rules rental and capital levels.
 
rambada said:
Keep it simple - Supply and demand. Is there any relative fact that tells us today that there will be oversupply or deminished demand. And while a roof over our heads is one of the basic requirements, demand will be there. Deal in todays reality, the future is just that - the future.
We can speculate but I prefer to invest - time, money, blood, sweat and tears.
I think sometimes that as human beings we complicate things far to much. When you look at the product you are going to invest in, keep it simple - supply and demand, this rules rental and capital levels.
"Supply and demand" refers to commodities. Basic housing is indeed a commodity but nobody on this forum is investing in commodities.
 
So therefore supply and demand has no relevence in the housing market? Pull your head out of the sand. What is the major driving factor behind any development of land or housing - the sale of the product and therefore the demand. Its not for ego and show, it is for the purpose of selling a product for a profit. To ignore this basic principle of human endevour is folly.
 
Supply and Demand

I agree supply and demand are vital.

However it appears to me to be quite tricky to work out 30 years in advance.

Supply: This is influenced not only by physical supply, in QLD you could fit in the whole population of the world at a comfortable density I once read this on the somersoft forum. We definitely aren't lacking for space you might say. Supply can be influenced by the policies of councils/governments and how development friendly they are.

Demand: Now this is interesting. With changes in lifestyle come changes in demand, the increase to living on your own would indicate currently a nice demand for smaller units/houses in prime locations close to lifestyle options. Also with the retirement of the weatlhy boomers there will be greater demand for quality retirement communities. What is currently a prime location (close to CBD's) might not always be a prime location. Even today it beats me why someone would want to live in a 50 story building in the Brisbane CBD when they could live in paradise (Gold Coast) like I do :)

Forecasting 30yrs ahead is not an easy job. Even 10 years ago I could not imagine the internet - email and the effect they have had on my life, and the demand on my time they generate, and my supply of time is sadly limited by the 24 hrs/day rule unfortunately... So much web so little time :)

One thing I "currently" believe is that we should invest the best we can in the present market with the knowledge we have, as thats all we can do! And I also believe that change should be embraced and not feared, as it brings plenty of opportunity with it.

WaySolid
 
The basics of demand for housing will always be in play.

There will always be demand for family homes near schools, near shopping facilities, near transport, near parks and beaches, near leisure centres. Even if future technology completely wipes out the need for people to travel anywhere to satisfy these demands, people will always want to congregate. You will find properties in any price band to fit all these criteria. I defy anyone to make a strong case against this statement.

Well - Ok maybe one day we will be able to teleport instantly from place to place. Heck, we may be living on the moon/mars/etc. Doesnt matter. By then i'll be living my dream, my legacy will be fulfilled. There will be a new need, a new set of rules.

People will always have children. There will always be people that want to live in a convenient home as close as possible to the above mentioned facilities. There will always be those that rent for a number of reasons.

For the purpose of making a best guess at the long term demand in property I believe this to be a pretty good assumption.

Seems pretty simple to me.

T.
 
Calling all Economists

Hi Guys,

My wage hasn't gone up that much since 1993, 10 years ago ( good career choice, I know ).
But house prices have doubled.

If they double again in the next 7-10 yrs, we'll be looking at $600-$900,000 homes in typical suburbia. I'm guessing that my wage will will be pretty much the same too :(

Whether or not people want to live near schools, amenities and the like won't matter if their wages only increase with inflation...they simply won't be able to afford the mortgage repayments. We can barely afford them now.

Does anyone else see that their might be a big drop in the number of people who can afford to buy those suburban houses at these prices? There are a hell of a lot of houses in suburbia and there are only so many people, immigration or not. And wages only grow so quickly - not nearly as quickly as the cost of housing. What I'm saying is that people will still choose to live in suburbia, only that their wages won't support homes which have doubled in value. Wages can barely support house prices as they are today. If we see a fall in the number of buyers who can afford these house prices, then we see a fall in demand, and therefore a fall in capital growth.

If this is a possible scenario, and I want to double my investment money in 7-10 yrs, would i not be best to purchase property which 'can' double in price and 'still' be affordable to enough people so that demand is present - and thus capital growth.
Or am I just way off track here???

Cheers
Fish :)
 
Fish said:
Hi Guys,

My wage hasn't gone up that much since 1993, 10 years ago ( good career choice, I know ).
But house prices have doubled.

If they double again in the next 7-10 yrs, we'll be looking at $600-$900,000 homes in typical suburbia. I'm guessing that my wage will will be pretty much the same too :(

Whether or not people want to live near schools, amenities and the like won't matter if their wages only increase with inflation...they simply won't be able to afford the mortgage repayments. We can barely afford them now.

Does anyone else see that their might be a big drop in the number of people who can afford to buy those suburban houses at these prices? There are a hell of a lot of houses in suburbia and there are only so many people, immigration or not. And wages only grow so quickly - not nearly as quickly as the cost of housing. What I'm saying is that people will still choose to live in suburbia, only that their wages won't support homes which have doubled in value. Wages can barely support house prices as they are today. If we see a fall in the number of buyers who can afford these house prices, then we see a fall in demand, and therefore a fall in capital growth.

If this is a possible scenario, and I want to double my investment money in 7-10 yrs, would i not be best to purchase property which 'can' double in price and 'still' be affordable to enough people so that demand is present - and thus capital growth.
Or am I just way off track here???

Cheers
Fish :)

Look at New York. Inner city apartments rent for thousands of US$ a week rent there, yet New York is still growing. Fish, surburbia will just continue to expand the surburbian suburbs of today will become inner city appartments in the future. The only thing is see changing long term is smaller households (1-2 people households more common) and a further tendancy to rent rather than buy.
 
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