Dear Aceyducey,
1. While the default rate looks "neglible" as a statistics, I cannot imagine that even during the Australian's continued prosperity over the last 15 years, some 2500-6000 households are losing their wealth each year as a result of property investing.
2. Speak to the affected parties concerned yourself, and see if you will agree with me.
3. While I am personally NOT affected by these data, there are others who are unfortunately adversely affected by them, the young and inexperienced investors as well as the average Dad and Mum investors who have lost their hard-earned savings/monies in property investing, as a result of their lack of investing experience, inadequate property investment education or simply having invested "wrongly" either at the wrong place or/and at the wrong timing.
4. When I was in Carins in 2003, I heard many real life stories of how many investors lost their entire property property in the late 1980s as a result of the high interest rate increase.
5. Consequently, I find that holding the property protfolio long term to be a highly risky proposal.
6. Sure, based on past historical trend, property does doubled in value every 7-10 years old, all things being equal. However, the ability to safely maintain a property portfolio into the down side of a property cycle also provide a rather challenging risk in itself.
7. Some investors, unfortunately, did not manage to last through the down cycle stage and become the statistics as "casualties" in their property investing.
8. High risk, high rewards... So, if property investing is as easy and safe as well as highly profitable as you would want to suggest to me, how come there are not many successful investors among our midst or/and for that matter in the overall population.
9. One can be right 9 times and only one time wrong. However, the one mistake may/can cause us to lose the entire property portfolio if we are not careful and sufficiently prudent and safe in our own property investing.
10. The other underlying theme which I do not agree with you as well as the other bullish members is to "assume" is that Australia's economic prosperity will continue indefinitely into the future as it has over the last 15 years.
11. Based on past historical trends and economic and business cycles, it is more likely and more logical for us to think that it is about time to expect Australia to go into a recession in the near future than to expect it to continue on its economic prosperity and success path.
12. With the departure of Ian MacFarlane and change of RBA Governor, the present internal power struggle between John Howard and Peter Costello as well as the many external changes in the wider world, I think we can expect to see some changes in this respect, too, all things being equal
13. Personally, while I still remain open-minded as to whether Australia will indeed enter into a recession or not, I think it is un-wise for us to assume that there is no recession in Australia in the near future, or/and that its effects are likely to be minor in nature, even if there is one.
14. With NSW State economy technically in a recession presently, its impact and likely outcome is yet to be fully realise as yet with some near time market correction becoming "inevtiable" in the near future.
15. For your kind update and further comments/discussion, please.
16. Thank you.
regards,
Kenneth KOH
Wise words Kenneth.
With regards to the political landscape , people are ignoring a persisting lead that Labour has in the polls for many months . The last two elections could have easily have gone the other way . John Howard was saved by " The Tampa " incident two elections ago ( at a time when labour where leading ) and labour went with Latham in the last election . Always a high risk strategy , and if they was ever going to close , the loss was sealed by one handshake.
Maybe a change in government in Canberra will be enough to undermine confidence to tip the balance .
Interesting stats about the repo rate. If we're only up to the long term average, thenone assumes when we swing above we'll see further falls in Sydney at least .
See Change
See Change