Is a recession looming?

Dear Aceyducey,

1. While the default rate looks "neglible" as a statistics, I cannot imagine that even during the Australian's continued prosperity over the last 15 years, some 2500-6000 households are losing their wealth each year as a result of property investing.

2. Speak to the affected parties concerned yourself, and see if you will agree with me.

3. While I am personally NOT affected by these data, there are others who are unfortunately adversely affected by them, the young and inexperienced investors as well as the average Dad and Mum investors who have lost their hard-earned savings/monies in property investing, as a result of their lack of investing experience, inadequate property investment education or simply having invested "wrongly" either at the wrong place or/and at the wrong timing.

4. When I was in Carins in 2003, I heard many real life stories of how many investors lost their entire property property in the late 1980s as a result of the high interest rate increase.

5. Consequently, I find that holding the property protfolio long term to be a highly risky proposal.

6. Sure, based on past historical trend, property does doubled in value every 7-10 years old, all things being equal. However, the ability to safely maintain a property portfolio into the down side of a property cycle also provide a rather challenging risk in itself.

7. Some investors, unfortunately, did not manage to last through the down cycle stage and become the statistics as "casualties" in their property investing.

8. High risk, high rewards... So, if property investing is as easy and safe as well as highly profitable as you would want to suggest to me, how come there are not many successful investors among our midst or/and for that matter in the overall population.

9. One can be right 9 times and only one time wrong. However, the one mistake may/can cause us to lose the entire property portfolio if we are not careful and sufficiently prudent and safe in our own property investing.

10. The other underlying theme which I do not agree with you as well as the other bullish members is to "assume" is that Australia's economic prosperity will continue indefinitely into the future as it has over the last 15 years.

11. Based on past historical trends and economic and business cycles, it is more likely and more logical for us to think that it is about time to expect Australia to go into a recession in the near future than to expect it to continue on its economic prosperity and success path.

12. With the departure of Ian MacFarlane and change of RBA Governor, the present internal power struggle between John Howard and Peter Costello as well as the many external changes in the wider world, I think we can expect to see some changes in this respect, too, all things being equal

13. Personally, while I still remain open-minded as to whether Australia will indeed enter into a recession or not, I think it is un-wise for us to assume that there is no recession in Australia in the near future, or/and that its effects are likely to be minor in nature, even if there is one.

14. With NSW State economy technically in a recession presently, its impact and likely outcome is yet to be fully realise as yet with some near time market correction becoming "inevtiable" in the near future.

15. For your kind update and further comments/discussion, please.

16. Thank you.

regards,
Kenneth KOH

Wise words Kenneth.

With regards to the political landscape , people are ignoring a persisting lead that Labour has in the polls for many months . The last two elections could have easily have gone the other way . John Howard was saved by " The Tampa " incident two elections ago ( at a time when labour where leading ) and labour went with Latham in the last election . Always a high risk strategy , and if they was ever going to close , the loss was sealed by one handshake.

Maybe a change in government in Canberra will be enough to undermine confidence to tip the balance .

Interesting stats about the repo rate. If we're only up to the long term average, thenone assumes when we swing above we'll see further falls in Sydney at least .

See Change

See Change
 
I too don't think one has to be a pathological 'bear' to be concerned about the current economic climate.....

Plus, I think a few changes that might come with a Fed Labor victory (and quite possibly an incumbent victory) at the end of 07 are thus:

- that the FHOG will be raised, and paid for indirectly by investors. Obviously raising the FHOG will increase demand for housing, as it did in July 2000 when first introduced and representing a nice chunk of the price of a home. FHB's reached 35% of all home buyers then.

- Hence, it seems that investors will face a disincentive policy change, to give the first home buyers a bigger bite of the cherry. i.e. eroded tax incentives....So I am seriously wondering if the next 12 months might be the last chance to buy IPs before things change adversely for investors.

Of course, the Labor state govts also need a smack in the face with a wet trout and realize how their heavier upfront costs on developers is being passed onto young ppl trying to get into the property market....not to mention the thieving nature of stamp duty......nor the state's incompetence at keeping infrastructure up to date and passing on the cost of that incompetence to consumers....i.e. in Qld, many local councils make it compulsory to put in a 5000L water tank with a new house.....and with smaller lot sizes that often means going underground....cost? try >$7k

And as I've said elsewhere, the harder it gets for young Aussies to buy a home, the lower the birth rate will fall...
 
1. While the default rate looks "neglible" as a statistics, I cannot imagine that even during the Australian's continued prosperity over the last 15 years, some 2500-6000 households are losing their wealth each year as a result of property investing.

Kenneth I don't understand - you say you can't imagine that it happened?

It did happen.

During the best part of the last property boom, with very low interest rates, 2,500 households had their homes repossessed.

Every year - in good times or bad - people have homes repossessed.

That's not necessarily INVESTORS however - I'd hazzard a guess that it has a large component of people who were first home buyers who overbought, people suffering debilitating conditions that removed their capacity to earn income, people divorcing and old people losing their livelihood. Plus some in small, dying towns.

The only way I see to stop people making poor financial decisions is to give them a home for nothing...and that would create problems for the other 99.9% of households. (and it probably wouldn't work anyway - people still have bad luck or can have business and personal failures that cause them to lose their home anyway...or simply trash the place)

Of course it's personally traumatic, but it can be recovered from. People don't drop dead when they go bankrupt or lose a home. Many do better in the long-term without the huge debt burden and stress. They can renew their lives.

And if you reckon that holding property long-term is risky, then don't do it.

Others can form their own conclusions. No-one is forcing you to own property :)

8. High risk, high rewards... So, if property investing is as easy and safe as well as highly profitable as you would want to suggest to me, how come there are not many successful investors among our midst or/and for that matter in the overall population.

I've never suggested this Kenneth. You need to read more of my posts!

I constantly caution people about the work required to invest effectively.

As to the number of successful investors - many people simply don't want to invest, that's an investment decision in itself. Frankly I thought there were a lot of successful investors - both large scale and small scale success. I don't know where you're getting figures stating that there are few successful investors.

Show me the figures you're using thanks - then I'll comment further.

10. The other underlying theme which I do not agree with you as well as the other bullish members is to "assume" is that Australia's economic prosperity will continue indefinitely into the future as it has over the last 15 years.

More words in my mouth!

Ken, I've never said that I believe that past economic conditions will continue. In fact I called the end of the last property boom accurately (check my posts back three years).

What I have said, and still say, is that I don't predict economic conditions - I act on economic conditions and trends.

Hence for the last four years I've been primarily focused on shares and resources and largely treaded water on property - and have stated as such openly.

When the conditions change, I'll change my investing patterns again.


Ken, remember the words of Muhammad Ali. They are very relevent to investors:

"Float like a butterfly and sting like a bee"

In case you can't translate them, they say, in effect:

Be flexible and open to all opportunities and risks - then when you see an opening, go in boots and all.

Cheers,

Aceyducey
 
Kenneth I don't understand - you say you can't imagine that it happened?

Aceyducey
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Dear Aceydecey,

1. Can you please tell me how many Australian household lose their homes during the last recession of 1991-1994?

2. Yes, I have noted that during these "prosperous" years, the annual number of home re-possessions in Australia is about less then 2600 case a year to less 6000 cases-year;- even though I do not personally expect people to lose their homes during period of prosperity.

3. Thank you for giving me this opportunity to clarify on my thinkng.

4. Lookinng forward to learn and to be further self-educated by you, please.

5. Thank you.

Cheers,
Kenneth KOH
 
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Of course it's personally traumatic, but it can be recovered from. People don't drop dead when they go bankrupt or lose a home. Many do better in the long-term without the huge debt burden and stress. They can renew their lives.

And if you reckon that holding property long-term is risky, then don't do it.

Others can form their own conclusions. No-one is forcing you to own property :)
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Dear Aceyducey,

1. I'm sorry if I sounded as if that you are imposing your belief on me. No, you are not. It is only that I am challenging this statement of belief that, "holding property long term is essential to wealth creation".

2. While it has become true for some investors in Australia like Jan Somers etc, it may not be true for everyone, especially those who are investing in Singapore, HK or/and Japan which had seen prolonged ( 10-25 plus years in duration) and very heavy (40%-80%) market correction in these 3 markets that I know.

3. Thus, holding the property long term may not be a "wise" move (in Australia?) as many people in this forum believe, after all... Well, at least this is my own present thinking for the time being.

4. I will much prefer, feel safer and am more comfortable with your belief /position to always keep an open mind and be flexible enough to adapt to the changing world/economic situation at all times.

5. Thank you for sharing your thoughts with me. It has "re-illuminated" my own thoughts and beliefs too and help to clarify/sharpen on my own thinking/beliefs too.

6. Thank you.

Cheers,
Kenneth KOH
 
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In fact I called the end of the last property boom accurately (check my posts back three years).

Aceyducey

As far as I was aware the property boom has been going since then . Maybe three years ago you chose to stop investing in Property , but other places were acurately called at the time you chose to get out, and have done well.

See Change
 
SeeChange, you didn't check my previous post before commenting.....

My exact statement back then was:

At this point I'm willing to stick my neck out and say the national property boom is over

I also stated that regional booms would continue in certain states, however nationally the market had turned and people should be more cautious about investing without a sound understanding of the local market.

From my recollection, most of your activity as reported in this forum since that point in time has been to sell property.

I've also sold a couple of properties since that time (the dogs) - but where did you get the idea that I got out of the market? Not from my words.....

Aceyducey
 
SeeChange, you didn't check my previous post before commenting.....

My exact statement back then was:



I also stated that regional booms would continue in certain states, however nationally the market had turned and people should be more cautious about investing without a sound understanding of the local market.

No, I didn't do a search to see what exactly you said back in 2003 .
I do recall you saying something to that effect. I'm sure you can provide us with a link.:cool:



From my recollection, most of your activity as reported in this forum since that point in time has been to sell property.

Aceyducey

Not sure the reason to bring this up , but ...:rolleyes:
Yes we have sold properties... as have you . I've covered the rational for doing this in other posts ( as opposed to refinancing and drawing down ).

Are we decreasing our exposure to the property market . Not sure....
We doing a development on our PPOR. Renovating current house and building new one next to it.
We've also done a renovation in our block of units in Hobart . This resulted in a rental increase of some 40 % ... :D

I've also sold a couple of properties since that time (the dogs) - but where did you get the idea that I got out of the market? Not from my words.....

Aceyducey

I can see you misinterpreted my meaning . I was talking about new investing . Maybe you have bought new properties. , but if you have I don't recall you talking about them.

See Change
 
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