Is the property market cyclical?

[tcocaro]

In canberra atleast I have been building and selling for a while and would like to know if people think the property market works on a seasonal cycle (within the 1 year). I usually ignore such fluctuations caring more about the long term trend which I base on statistics and 1 year data from BIS but would like to fine tune (completion dates) for projects to fall on small demmand booms within the year.

Cutting a long story short would like to know what people think, my two cents is that AUTUMN and SPRING are the two best periods with WINTER and SUMMER being flat or on the down.

*note: I dont consider such situations like SUMMER is great time to sell if your house has a pool (I want a more general view).

 

[LynnH]

In our little neck o' the woods, the "For Sale" signs grow like mushrooms from late August - we call it "silly season"!

Cheers
LynnH

 

[CairnsAgent]

Cairns...the third quarter is always, and has always been the busiest time to buy / sell.
Alot of the local's here will not even list until July / August.
Seems it is the right "temperate" sales climate...

 

[MichaelW]

I voted Spring too.

Basically, there is a physiological response that all animals experience when we come out of Winter. Hence the phrase "Spring is in the air". Its a euphoric sensation as the body wakes up from the cold just past. Humans are not immune to this physiology.

Couple that with the pent-up demand through the property down-season of Winter and it makes sense to list in Spring.

So, the following come together to make Spring the ideal season to list:

1. Pent-up demand from a low Winter sales season.
2. Optimism based on animal physiology resulting in a desire to buy and not as concerned with the downside of doing so.
3. The physical attributes of Spring such as fresh flowers, warmer weather, less rain make it a great time for open homes, and for buyers to get out and physically inspect properties.

Cheers,
Michael.

 

[Twitch]

I voted autumn. My thinking is that people get desperate by Autumn, having missed out on houses in Spring and Summer, and want to get in before the 3 or 4 month downtime over winter.

 

[steveadl]

So if spring is the best time to list for sellers, then I guess those of us who want to buy should be looking for bargains in Autumn/Winter

 

[MichaelW]

So if spring is the best time to list for sellers, then I guess those of us who want to buy should be looking for bargains in Autumn/Winter

I'd say yes, and more so Winter than Autumn. I'll extend my argument above to explain why Winter is a good time to buy:

1. People are more miserable in winter, so sellers are more "motivated" to sell as they perceive the market in a more negative way. In England they actually have a clinical term for this depression called Seasonally Adjusted Disease (SAD). So, if you are able to rise above this as a buyer you can snag a good price from your depressed motivated seller.

2. Less people frequent open homes due to the overall depressed market. The weather is awful, cold winds, little sinlight, no flowers etc. People stay home and hunker down through those cold winter weekends. If the sun does pop its head up, they leap at the opportunity to go out to the park for a picnic or into town for a coffee. Wasting that fine day on attending an open house is the last thing on their mind.

3. All of this combines to reduce demand significantly in Winter. Thankfully for sellers listing in this time, they are in the minority. So supply dries up in line with demand. However, if you're listing in Winter you're probably desperate. If you weren't then you would have held out for Spring.

Buying in Winter can really create some good deals if you can find the right listing.

Cheers,
Michael.

 

[GoAnna!]

I'd say winder and early spring are good in Melbourne. Maybe autumn. Mid to late summer (heading into Christmas and January) not so great as people are distracted. Spring is not so great as there is way too much on the market and it is harder to get buyer attention.

So I think winter or before the September holidays. I know from agents that many use those holidays to get their place ready for sale.

 

[Firsthomelooker]

I've only been in the market for one house this far, my PPOR in Canberra, but I noticed a significant increase in sale prices (at a rough guess around $10,000) in January. My theory is that leading up to Christmas Vendors don't have the time or inclincation to list their houses, leading to lower supply on Jan 1, while at the same time purchasers make it their 'new years resolution' to go out and buy, increasing the demand on Jan 1. Because you need to have a contract in place before marketing in the ACT and this process takes 2-3 weeks the supply doesn't catch up with the demand until the end of January.

 

[tcocaro]

not exactly

So if spring is the best time to list for sellers, then I guess those of us who want to buy should be looking for bargains in Autumn/Winter

I would say (December\January) and Winter (Not AUTUMN) based on my own previous results and what seems to be coming out of this interesting little vote.

I beleive (regarding selling) I have adjusted my view as the best time to sell as SPRING and Feb-to-end of AUTUMN.

 

[tcocaro]

the vote is from a selling perspective not buying

I voted autumn. My thinking is that people get desperate by Autumn, having missed out on houses in Spring and Summer, and want to get in before the 3 or 4 month downtime over winter.

People was hoping to get the sellers point of view therefore your vote should have been SUMMER and SPRING not AUTUMN

However I am enjoying the read from the buyers view aswell as this reinforces the converse e.g. good for buyers bad for sellers however for the purposes of the vote it should be from a sellers view or else it will get skewed

 

[geoffw]

My local real estate agent, who knows Queanbeyan and Jerrabomberra well, has always told me that there is a seasonal winter dip and spring rise in Jerra every year, which does not occur in Queanbeyan. This may be because Jerra has newer, better and bigger gardens.

However, he tealls me that last winter, for the first time, that dip did not take place.

 

[urban cowboy]

in brisbane traditionally spring through to Christmas for sellers and again from end Jan to Easter if you're lucky (IMHO), but its been so crazy lately that its more about how good your agent is than the best time.

there are sooo many buyers and so few sellers now here that a good agent marketing properly will get the job done well at any time of year.

And that is especially true for newer properties and OTP stuff.


cheers
UC

 

[CairnsAgent]

I like to do my "bargain" hunting in early to mid Feb'..reason?
Most people are cash poor, they put the kids christmas on the credit card, they put the kids school fee's on the credit card, they holiday through January on the credit card....They get the credit card bill....FEBRUARY...reality check!
As a buyer I have found my best buys at this time of year, even tho' I look and buy all year.
As a real estate seller, I have found my most desperate sellers also at this time of year.

I know it's sad....but if not me or you, who? the bank?...heartless. No chance of delayed settlement, no chance of cheaper rent back with a bank.

cheers

 

[HandyAndy888]

I voted Spring too.

Basically, there is a physiological response that all animals experience when we come out of Winter. Hence the phrase "Spring is in the air". Its a euphoric sensation as the body wakes up from the cold just past. Humans are not immune to this physiology.

Couple that with the pent-up demand through the property down-season of Winter and it makes sense to list in Spring.

So, the following come together to make Spring the ideal season to list:

1. Pent-up demand from a low Winter sales season.
2. Optimism based on animal physiology resulting in a desire to buy and not as concerned with the downside of doing so.
3. The physical attributes of Spring such as fresh flowers, warmer weather, less rain make it a great time for open homes, and for buyers to get out and physically inspect properties.

Cheers,
Michael.

Well put...

 

[EstatePreneur]

So if spring is the best time to list for sellers, then I guess those of us who want to buy should be looking for bargains in Autumn/Winter

That's what I thought when it comes to the weather factor in purchasing property at the right time. And I did purchase my PPOR just a few weeks ago

I had a feeling that there were less people coming to inspect the properties compared to the pre-winter / autumn season.