John Mauldin's Predictions for 2008
- Thread starter GreatPig
- Start date
'An' being the key-word here... thanks!
And here I was thinking you were giving kudos on the often incorrectly applied preposition of 'a' & 'an' next to a word starting with a vowel or h.
This is the part I like..
So let's get to the predictions. I think that we are in a recession for most of the first half of this year, and that we begin a slow recovery in the second half. It will be a Muddle Through Economy for at least another year after that. That would suggest that most companies will come under serious earnings pressure. If history is any indicator, that means we should see a bear market in the first half of this year. How deep will depend on how fast the Fed cuts, but I don't think we are looking at anything close to the bear market of 2000-2001. Still, I wouldn't want to stand in front of a bear market train.
There is never just one cockroach. Write this down. Counterparty risk in the credit default swap market will be a huge story in 2008. Losses are going to mount far higher than estimates from just a few months ago. I believe that many financial institutions will be taking large losses every quarter for the next few quarters. At the end of each quarter, investors will hope that this is finally the end. "Surely this time they have gotten it all out in the open." It won't be, because banks can't write down loans until the counterparty risk problem is solved.http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/learn
So let's get to the predictions. I think that we are in a recession for most of the first half of this year, and that we begin a slow recovery in the second half. It will be a Muddle Through Economy for at least another year after that. That would suggest that most companies will come under serious earnings pressure. If history is any indicator, that means we should see a bear market in the first half of this year. How deep will depend on how fast the Fed cuts, but I don't think we are looking at anything close to the bear market of 2000-2001. Still, I wouldn't want to stand in front of a bear market train.
There is never just one cockroach. Write this down. Counterparty risk in the credit default swap market will be a huge story in 2008. Losses are going to mount far higher than estimates from just a few months ago. I believe that many financial institutions will be taking large losses every quarter for the next few quarters. At the end of each quarter, investors will hope that this is finally the end. "Surely this time they have gotten it all out in the open." It won't be, because banks can't write down loans until the counterparty risk problem is solved.http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/learn
This is also worth the time to read from another angle..willair..
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/bus/stories/010208dnbusiqmain.9d92.html
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/bus/stories/010208dnbusiqmain.9d92.html
