Latest Melbourne Median Strong Tops $600,000!
- Thread starter meconium
- Start date
Isn't it better for prices to fall so you can buy more for less? Capital gains will come, its just a matter of time
i agree with you on some aspects but each city and suburb is different. Take balwyn in melbourne for example -there is a waiting list of buyers every year just waiting on decent properties so they can get into the school zone. Where else you head to clayton, melbourne - and that's not much activity. Doesn't mean the price to income ratio has gotten worse, - everything would fall, people will just move out to outher suburbs or take long train rides to work.
annual growth rates on quarterly medians is folly.
a quarterly median is even more volatile than the median.
so a few luxury places got snapped up over the break, and a few FHB's were in bali during the same period....voila! median jumps 6.7%.
a quarterly median is even more volatile than the median.
so a few luxury places got snapped up over the break, and a few FHB's were in bali during the same period....voila! median jumps 6.7%.
i just got a list of properties sold in docklands 2011. there are some in the 500K mark, 1.1million mark, 700K mark. i'm no fan of this place and i reckon it is bad investment but there are still people buying although not like last year.
Balwyn now commands premium suburb prices - yet if you're someone who can afford premium prices would you really need to send your kids to a public school?
Lots of naysayers on this thread, and they all purport to understand the dynamics of medians.
Medians can be skewed one way or the other when there are a very small number of total sales. However, this is not the case for a whole city where there are many, many sales.
Like it or hate it, the median for Melbourne is still very strong. It is mendacious to suggest anything else. I don't claim to know where its headed next - personally I'd prefer if it would fall. But it looks increasingly likely that there will be no fall, maybe some flat-lining at best
I wonder how many of the participants on this thread own more than one IP?
Yeah guys, I too wish prices will fall so we can grab a few more cheapies. But it doesn't look like its going to happen anytime soon.
Medians can be skewed one way or the other when there are a very small number of total sales. However, this is not the case for a whole city where there are many, many sales.
Like it or hate it, the median for Melbourne is still very strong. It is mendacious to suggest anything else. I don't claim to know where its headed next - personally I'd prefer if it would fall. But it looks increasingly likely that there will be no fall, maybe some flat-lining at best
I wonder how many of the participants on this thread own more than one IP?
Yeah guys, I too wish prices will fall so we can grab a few more cheapies. But it doesn't look like its going to happen anytime soon.
LIke you probably already know - chinese like to group together among chinese - so balywn is ideal. quick drive to doncaster or box hill for some food and also possibly mingle with other overseas chinese.
There was that china lady who bought 3 mansions in brighton coz her kids studied there.
Interesting. Immigrants clearly bring a lot of money into the country.
Nothing false about my understanding... Prob & Stats domain is now my professional specialization... currently brings in multi six figure package... happy to discuss medians all day long
Not the case for a whole city? Perhaps some grade school maths is in order, coupled with a dose of current market reality.
Mendacious? If you read what people have said regarding the correlation of medians to market cycles, perhaps the "naysayers" (as you say) might shed a little broader perspective beyond the tunnel... I believe a little self reflection is in order.
Ah, that old chestnut. How many? Some of us dabble in CIPs as well Padawan... So perhaps, your analogy of number of IPs to your inference of "having a clue" is fundamentally flawed. You are using the wrong measuring stick, IMHO.
Of course, you will refute every word, not that it will bother me per se, because my response is only to provide balance to the discussion.
Oh the hubris of you sci fi fans! *giggle* You are the first one to boast of his income in this thread. That said, how nice that you have so much time to spare to share your erudition with us.
Et tu.
Diversity and balance are good things and your views are welcome, even if you sound like some kind of raving conspiracy theorist. The median does not lie when there are so many samples - like it or not, Melbourne is looking increasingly pricey, with no sign of prices crashing. Shooting the messenger is hardly a valid scientific argument.
I will be the last one to suggest that the market is going to skyrocket. But those doom & gloom merchants who say it will crash are like stopped clocks - being right a couple of times a day does not mean they are right about the state of the current market. God knows, they were pretty wrong about the GFC and I'll bet they are wrong about the current market.
OK Indifference, why don't you digest the upper quartile and lower quartile numbers of the latest Melb results to prove your point? I dare you. If the REIV won't provide the numbers, I'm sure RP data or Rismark will oblige - no shortage of PhDs in both these organizations. Not sure what they earn though *wink*
Not always. One suburb I know very well (mine
) had a median jump of 26% last year, based on similar sales to the year before.I can tell you now, not only did they not go up 26%, they didn't go up at all.
The year before unit and townhouse prices went through the roof and were selling like hotcakes (the sub 350K seemed to be the only market very active that year throughout the city and suburbs), while the expensive homes were selling slowly.
Last year the units having reached a peak weren't selling and the upper end picked up sales wise compared to the previous year.
I think with less FHB out there in the later part of the year, the second and third homebuyers pushed up the median.
With a trend like this, especially with FHB numbers diminishing in many suburbs, I believe it can affect a city median.
I agree with a lot of this, and I see investors looking at cash flow positive properties as the preferred method when they no longer see housing as a get-rich-quick money-making goldmine.
They say it takes sellers 6 month of conditioning to readjust prices when in a buyers market.
2011 and 2012 will certainly be interesting years imo.
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Not always. One suburb I know very well (mine
Yes, medians can be misleading when looking at suburbs with a limited number of sales. But when you add up all the sales in a large city - and there are many thousands of sales in a city - its hard to argue that the result is biased just because a few rich people bought-up the top end of the market.
With immigration at record highs, I suspect that there will be a lot more FH buyers that surface. Not all qualify for the grant BTW, so looking at grant recipient numbers can be very misleading.
But point taken, I respect your view that the market will fall. Everyone has their opinion and you are entitled to yours. On my part, I wish the market would fall so I can buy a few more cheapies! But I'm not sanguine of it happening anytime soon.
The other real problem is anything published by REIV. Their only agenda is to keep pushing prices so REAs can rake in more $$$s
I'm no fan of agents. Are you sure this is the case?